The aircraft, according to the radar tracks the Turks are providing, was only over Turkish airspace for a few minutes at best. So we're not talking about an egregious violation here (egregious being up for interpretation.) The Turks say they warned the craft numerous times including points prior to crossing the border, so they were prepared to shoot it down after seeing it would cross if no course change was taken.
Some might ask what the harm is to Turkey in this case, and my guesses are this:
1. If Turkey didn't take action, then they could set a dangerous precedent by which aircraft were tolerated to violate their airspace, but Turkey would then find it difficult to then crack down after the fact. How deep is a real incursion? At what point do they say "ok, we're really gonna shoot you down now!"
2. The BBC brought up the fact that there are ethnic Turks (Turkmen) living inside Syria, and some of them have been targets of Russian/Syrian bombs. The Turks have been notably irritated at this, and so one could imagine that this gave Turkey an excuse to hit back.
I saw the initial Russian comments as insisting that their plane was downed by a SAM as a real desire to downplay the incident. But now that they're acknowledging it was downed by a Turkish aircraft, it seems they're at least wanting to object harshly. (Edit: That, and Turkish insistence that they did it. Maybe they didn't see the wink?)
I agree with some of the other comments, it's far too early, and even alarmist, to assume that much worse will come up this. A larger conflict is in no one's interests and is in no one's intent.
I've heard enough stories of Russian planes violating other countries' airspace and not responding to warnings, that I immediately assumed a fairly deep incursion and Russia being clearly at fault, but crossing that tiny sliver of Turkish territory? Technically it's still a violation of airspace, but shooting it down is exceedingly harsh. The only possible conclusion is that Turkey was eager to shoot down a Russian plane.
Not shooting down a plane doesn't have to mean you tolerate airspace violations. You can still complain and stress that this is not okay without shooting anything.
I think the way to think of it is as a violation of airspace in the context of being belligerents by proxy.
For various reasons (confessional and otherwise)Turkey has been firmly and outspokenly anti-Assad since the early demonstrations and since they evolved into civil war.
Russia has intervened effectively on behalf of the Assad regime. Since the Assad's failure today would almost certainly result in a jihadist Syria, this is not looking so terrible to the rest of Turkey's NATO allies, like France. Turkey is by some (fairly loose) definition engaged in proxy war with Russia.
At the same time Lebanese, Iraqi & Syrian airspaces to their south and east are free-for-alls with 8 national forces bombing as they see fit in Syria. This is probably making Turkey paranoid about their own air space.
I suspect they see/saw this as Russia testing their resolve to defend their border. There have been previous violations and stern warning had been made. There's also the possibility that this is a bad decision made by field officers in the short decision window they had.
> I agree with some of the other comments, it's far too early, and even alarmist, to assume that much worse will come up this. A larger conflict is in no one's interests and is in no one's intent.
Putin is not known for his soft heart and willingness to let bygones be bygones.
> A larger conflict is in no one's interests and is in no one's intent.
It never is for most people, for 99.99% of people anywhere, and every war ever fought, was not because most people wanted to. Its always an elite, minority of people which decide they can and do want to send others to war.
I'm the skeptical type, but my take is that the West has never been serious about hurting IS, beyond making a show of it, because of its strategic usefulness. There have been indications of this since the bombing campaigns began over a year ago in Iraq, the British flew for weeks without attacking anything, the Kurds reported no help from the air, etc. Add to this all the direct and indirect support IS has been getting in terms of weapon supplies to 'moderates' that end up with them, and particularly the strange ease with which they are able to sell oil and send fighters back and forth across the Turkish border.
So I'm inclined to believe that this incident was staged to further put a spanner in the wheel of real concerted attacks on IS - instead we get Russia and the West staring each other down. Note that the Russian jet did not exactly invade Turkish territory - it crossed a tiny finger of land less than a mile wide extending into Syria - a tiny excuse for such a forceful response.
my take is that the West has never been serious about hurting IS, beyond making a show of it, because of its strategic usefulness.
I agree with the first half of that, but not the second. I think the more likely reason is that there is simply not the political will to pay the necessary price it would cost (mainly in political capital).
Not exactly. Russian/Syrian jets have been flying sorties in the region for weeks/months. Violating a nation's airspace is a serious offense, even if they just "crossed a tiny finger".
The aircraft has also been previously warned about intrusions.
What I remember from the past news Turkey gave few notices to Russia about their planes violating the Turkish airspace. So Russia had it coming for a long time.
Do you have any sources for this? You don't sound so much like the "skeptical" type as the "pre-drawn anti-west conclusions" type.
It's important to clear up what "making a show of it" means. If you want to look like you're doing something big and important to the layperson, you distribute dozens of videos of air-launched cruise missiles and massive volleys of dumb bombs from high altitude, like the Russians have.
If you want to actually degrade ISIS's capabilities, you make literally thousands of precision airstrikes over the course of months.
Lets be more precise. It was shot down over Turkey territory (according to information provided by Turkey military).
Of course one could argue that the plane was just taking a shortcut over the small part of Turkey territory. The problem with this is that Turkey has warned Russians on many occasions to not do that. But in my opinion it does not look like there was any threat to Turkey.
In principle the Russians have become very cocky near all NATO borders, and Turks are the least PC NATO member, so one can say that Russians had it coming and it looks like they finally found their equally crazy nemesis. Anyway, the situation is alarming and it is not yet clear how the following actions would unroll.
The first reaction from Putin does not make it look like Russia would admit their fault, but I think that he is rather reserved.
My condolences go to the parents and relatives of the killed pilot.
Edit: Changed two paragraphs, added one more paragraph.
Edit2: It looks like Russians flew over Turkey territory towards their target zone (see the map provided in this thread) and then began to fly in circles over Turkey territory. They were shot at the second entry.
I do not know why Russians choose this route as it does not seem to be the most optimal one.
The length over Turkey territory is about 1500-1600 meters, SU-24 flies up to 360 m/s so it was about minimum 5 seconds flight, but as it was a second entry, I guess it does not matter that much.
Anyway, I think that both sides acted in a very unwise manner.
> Lets be correct. It was shot down over Turkey territory.
How could you possible know enough to admonish people over this? We barely know the facts.
Perhaps the plane never entered Turkish territory. Perhaps only for a few seconds. Maybe it was fired upon when it was already over Syria. Or maybe the rocket hit over Syria.
Sovereign territorial borders are no joke, there's no "we're just cutting a corner" when it comes to that line on the map. Particularly with the most recent Turkish national election turning out the way it did [1][0], a more conservative and nationally focused Turkish government would seem more likely to choose to enforce those borders if it thought they were violated.
Much more troubling if it was, indeed, shot down outside of Turkey by mistake.
And in any case, BBC is reporting that "a Turkmen brigade in Syria says [...] shot dead two pilots of the downed Russian jet as they descended with parachutes."[2]
It's concerning that both sides have taken their respective actions. It's only going to exacerbate tenuous relationships with partner nation-states around the Syrian conflict. If Russia reacts aggressively, NATO-ally countries are treaty-bound to respond in support and defense of Turkey.
I really hope both nations see how that increased stress is to no one's benefit and that Russia takes the mature and humble road of deescalation...
No, Turkey's own radar readings that it showed to the press (that is being paraded around Twitter right now) shows it was shot in Syrian territory. It flew over a piece of Turkish territory a few km wide, and was well within Syrian airspace when the missile hit.
I can find absolutely no evidence for that at this time. It is possible this is correct but the plane definitely came down inside Syria. A lot will ride on where it was shot down so best not to make any claims that strong without equally strong evidence.
The Russians did it only to provoke and to test the response times of the Turks, just like NATO does every day to other countries. This is not something you shoot down a jet for.
Turkey just took a shot at getting back at the Russians for what they are doing in Syria.
Nothing of importance will come out of this. Russia helped down a commercial jet last year and what happened then? Noting.
Turkey has shown lots of military and secret service activity trying to establish its regional power status. For a minor airspace violation during border clashes from a supersonic aircraft the ."In the first month of 2014 alone, Turkish aircraft allegedly violated Greek airspace 1,017 times." http://m.sputniknews.com/europe/20151009/1028274796/greece-t...
Abdulah
Gul Turkish Prime Minister in 2012:It is routine for jet fighters to sometimes fly in and out over [national] borders... when you consider their speed over the sea," he added. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-18562210
And threatened anybody assisting the Syrian Kurds, the only ground force that is fighting ISIS except Assad. Turkish military policy goes way beyond its borders.
The plane came down in Syria, no info about where it was before then or where the plane was shot as far as I know. Not looking very good for Turkey with info available at this moment, if the plane had come down inside the Turkish borders they'd have a much stronger story.
The conflict is becoming extremely complex, all parties hate IS, but some more than others and some offer clandestine support and quite a few parties hate each other as well. Turkmenes, Assad, Russia, Turkey, the Kurds, IS are fighting there each with their own relationship with all the other parties and that's just one small fragment of the zone, and Turkey is part of NATO to make things even more complex.
I am not afraid of escalation between Nato and Russia, but the future of Syria will need a full cooperation of all parties involved, and today we took a step in the wrong direction.
EU needs the help of Turkey to host refugee camp on its territory, and at the same time, could be helped by Russian air force.
However,Turkey and Russia have totally opposite goals regarding Assad. So this is likely going to get worse, before getting better.
There is already a big sense of alarm on social media (particularly along new EU/NATO countries) that this can lead up to new confrontation between Russia and NATO. I would like to think that Russia is not going to start attacking Turkey or any other NATO country just because one plane was brought down near Syria. Thoughts?
Russia's initial reaction was to place the blame on insurgents and not Turkey. Even after Turkey claimed responsibility, Russia essentially said: "Are you sure? We really think it was the rebels. Hint. Hint." [1]
So that's pretty telling. Russia showed a willingness to sweep this under the table but Turkey wouldn't let them.
"President Putin is reportedly readying a statement. On Russian state television, there was little discussion of the Turkish claim they had shot the plane down, with anchors and analysts speculating that the Su-24 could have been shot down by rebels with anti-aircraft weapons. This chimes with the Russian Defence Ministry’s claim that the plane was shot down from the ground, but completely contradicts the Turkish statement that an F-16 from its airforce shot the plane down."
According to the article NATO is holding an emergency meeting in brussels so I wouldn't say this is a story hyped up by social media. It's a sign that things are getting very messy and have major potential for escalation.
This is a bad incident, but I do not believe that a major war is about to break out; this isn't the cold war anymore, and the major powers are actively avoiding war with each other because neither can bear the consequences of such a war. If you read the article, you will see that even Putin is treating this as a one-off event that occurred as a result of poor coordination between the parties ostensibly united in attacking ISIS.
The Russian anger is focused largely at Turkey, who is the ally nobody wants to have in the fight against ISIS... it's no secret that the Turkish MIT (intelligence agency) has been caught transferring weapons directly to radical Sunni groups near the border while killing Kurds whenever possible. I think the overarching idea of this incident is that everyone knew that an accident would happen eventually, and so a mature response is to take steps to increase coordination rather than saber rattle about a downed aircraft. A complication is that the Russian pilot who survived the crash was captured by rebels; I assume Russia will deal with this swiftly.
CNN Türk English has a flight analysis diagram they claim was provided to them by military sources, claiming the Russian jet encroached on Turkish airspace:
The distance between borders at that point is 2 - 3km across (measured via Google Maps), which would be a few seconds of travel time. Russia claims the jet never even entered Turkish airspace. Following the red line, it seems to have crashed in Syrian airspace, not Turkish territory.
I was about to link to this next tweet as an example of the 3km border-to-border measurement, until I noticed... this is the only tweet this account has posted. Which rather undermines its own credibility & makes me wonder how much of a social media propaganda fight is also occurring right now:
Turkey’s president said Saturday that his country would do “whatever is necessary” in response to the downing of a Turkish military jet by Syria, adding a new complication to the tense relationship between the former allies split by Turkey’s support for Syrian rebels trying to overthrow the government.
“It is not possible to cover over a thing like this,” said President Abdullah Gul of Turkey, according to the Anatolia news agency. “Whatever is necessary will no doubt be done.”
Syria said Friday that its military forces had shot down a Turkish jet that had entered its airspace just off the Syrian coast. But Mr. Gul said Saturday that while the exact route of the plane had not yet been confirmed, _it was routine for military jets flying at high speeds to briefly cross into another country’s airspace_, and that the jet’s presence over Syrian territory was not intended as a hostile act.
Might seem like a stupid question, but I don't know how serious this is: I have a flight on Thursday via Turkishairlines and landing in Istanbul for a few hours. Is this an act that can trigger war between the two countries? What could possibly go wrong (more than an airjet down) here?
[+] [-] ckozlowski|10 years ago|reply
The aircraft, according to the radar tracks the Turks are providing, was only over Turkish airspace for a few minutes at best. So we're not talking about an egregious violation here (egregious being up for interpretation.) The Turks say they warned the craft numerous times including points prior to crossing the border, so they were prepared to shoot it down after seeing it would cross if no course change was taken.
Some might ask what the harm is to Turkey in this case, and my guesses are this:
1. If Turkey didn't take action, then they could set a dangerous precedent by which aircraft were tolerated to violate their airspace, but Turkey would then find it difficult to then crack down after the fact. How deep is a real incursion? At what point do they say "ok, we're really gonna shoot you down now!"
2. The BBC brought up the fact that there are ethnic Turks (Turkmen) living inside Syria, and some of them have been targets of Russian/Syrian bombs. The Turks have been notably irritated at this, and so one could imagine that this gave Turkey an excuse to hit back.
I saw the initial Russian comments as insisting that their plane was downed by a SAM as a real desire to downplay the incident. But now that they're acknowledging it was downed by a Turkish aircraft, it seems they're at least wanting to object harshly. (Edit: That, and Turkish insistence that they did it. Maybe they didn't see the wink?)
I agree with some of the other comments, it's far too early, and even alarmist, to assume that much worse will come up this. A larger conflict is in no one's interests and is in no one's intent.
[+] [-] DonaldFisk|10 years ago|reply
was less than 3km. At Mach 1, that takes less than 9 seconds. It appears to have flown over twice.
The pilots ejected, but were shot dead by Turkmen fighters while they parachuted down: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-middle-east-34908469
[+] [-] mcv|10 years ago|reply
Not shooting down a plane doesn't have to mean you tolerate airspace violations. You can still complain and stress that this is not okay without shooting anything.
[+] [-] netcan|10 years ago|reply
For various reasons (confessional and otherwise)Turkey has been firmly and outspokenly anti-Assad since the early demonstrations and since they evolved into civil war.
Russia has intervened effectively on behalf of the Assad regime. Since the Assad's failure today would almost certainly result in a jihadist Syria, this is not looking so terrible to the rest of Turkey's NATO allies, like France. Turkey is by some (fairly loose) definition engaged in proxy war with Russia.
At the same time Lebanese, Iraqi & Syrian airspaces to their south and east are free-for-alls with 8 national forces bombing as they see fit in Syria. This is probably making Turkey paranoid about their own air space.
I suspect they see/saw this as Russia testing their resolve to defend their border. There have been previous violations and stern warning had been made. There's also the possibility that this is a bad decision made by field officers in the short decision window they had.
[+] [-] splouk|10 years ago|reply
Putin is not known for his soft heart and willingness to let bygones be bygones.
[+] [-] antocv|10 years ago|reply
It never is for most people, for 99.99% of people anywhere, and every war ever fought, was not because most people wanted to. Its always an elite, minority of people which decide they can and do want to send others to war.
Such people are Erdogan, Putin and Obama.
[+] [-] sfjailbird|10 years ago|reply
So I'm inclined to believe that this incident was staged to further put a spanner in the wheel of real concerted attacks on IS - instead we get Russia and the West staring each other down. Note that the Russian jet did not exactly invade Turkish territory - it crossed a tiny finger of land less than a mile wide extending into Syria - a tiny excuse for such a forceful response.
[+] [-] dagw|10 years ago|reply
I agree with the first half of that, but not the second. I think the more likely reason is that there is simply not the political will to pay the necessary price it would cost (mainly in political capital).
[+] [-] ZanyProgrammer|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] josefresco|10 years ago|reply
Not exactly. Russian/Syrian jets have been flying sorties in the region for weeks/months. Violating a nation's airspace is a serious offense, even if they just "crossed a tiny finger".
The aircraft has also been previously warned about intrusions.
[+] [-] biggio|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] knowaveragejoe|10 years ago|reply
It's important to clear up what "making a show of it" means. If you want to look like you're doing something big and important to the layperson, you distribute dozens of videos of air-launched cruise missiles and massive volleys of dumb bombs from high altitude, like the Russians have.
If you want to actually degrade ISIS's capabilities, you make literally thousands of precision airstrikes over the course of months.
[+] [-] eveningcoffee|10 years ago|reply
Of course one could argue that the plane was just taking a shortcut over the small part of Turkey territory. The problem with this is that Turkey has warned Russians on many occasions to not do that. But in my opinion it does not look like there was any threat to Turkey.
In principle the Russians have become very cocky near all NATO borders, and Turks are the least PC NATO member, so one can say that Russians had it coming and it looks like they finally found their equally crazy nemesis. Anyway, the situation is alarming and it is not yet clear how the following actions would unroll.
The first reaction from Putin does not make it look like Russia would admit their fault, but I think that he is rather reserved.
My condolences go to the parents and relatives of the killed pilot.
Edit: Changed two paragraphs, added one more paragraph.
Edit2: It looks like Russians flew over Turkey territory towards their target zone (see the map provided in this thread) and then began to fly in circles over Turkey territory. They were shot at the second entry.
I do not know why Russians choose this route as it does not seem to be the most optimal one.
The length over Turkey territory is about 1500-1600 meters, SU-24 flies up to 360 m/s so it was about minimum 5 seconds flight, but as it was a second entry, I guess it does not matter that much.
Anyway, I think that both sides acted in a very unwise manner.
[+] [-] Luc|10 years ago|reply
How could you possible know enough to admonish people over this? We barely know the facts.
Perhaps the plane never entered Turkish territory. Perhaps only for a few seconds. Maybe it was fired upon when it was already over Syria. Or maybe the rocket hit over Syria.
[+] [-] mattlutze|10 years ago|reply
Much more troubling if it was, indeed, shot down outside of Turkey by mistake.
And in any case, BBC is reporting that "a Turkmen brigade in Syria says [...] shot dead two pilots of the downed Russian jet as they descended with parachutes."[2]
It's concerning that both sides have taken their respective actions. It's only going to exacerbate tenuous relationships with partner nation-states around the Syrian conflict. If Russia reacts aggressively, NATO-ally countries are treaty-bound to respond in support and defense of Turkey.
I really hope both nations see how that increased stress is to no one's benefit and that Russia takes the mature and humble road of deescalation...
0: http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21677461-president-erdo...
1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_general_election,_Nove...
2: http://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-middle-east-34908469
[+] [-] Mikeb85|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] jacquesm|10 years ago|reply
I can find absolutely no evidence for that at this time. It is possible this is correct but the plane definitely came down inside Syria. A lot will ride on where it was shot down so best not to make any claims that strong without equally strong evidence.
[+] [-] tdkl|10 years ago|reply
You mean cocky while West placing all those military bases near Russian borders ?
[+] [-] codingbeer|10 years ago|reply
Apparently they gave the russian 10 warnings. That doesn't add up.
[+] [-] noselasd|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] polack|10 years ago|reply
Nothing of importance will come out of this. Russia helped down a commercial jet last year and what happened then? Noting.
[+] [-] antman|10 years ago|reply
Gul Turkish Prime Minister in 2012:It is routine for jet fighters to sometimes fly in and out over [national] borders... when you consider their speed over the sea," he added. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-18562210
Also Turkey has armed islamist groups in that border area and then denied it http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN0O61L220150521
And threatened anybody assisting the Syrian Kurds, the only ground force that is fighting ISIS except Assad. Turkish military policy goes way beyond its borders.
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/erdogan-says-turkey-may-hit...
[+] [-] mason240|10 years ago|reply
I wonder if this was one of those flights.
https://i.imgur.com/iARdJtM.jpg
[+] [-] jacquesm|10 years ago|reply
The conflict is becoming extremely complex, all parties hate IS, but some more than others and some offer clandestine support and quite a few parties hate each other as well. Turkmenes, Assad, Russia, Turkey, the Kurds, IS are fighting there each with their own relationship with all the other parties and that's just one small fragment of the zone, and Turkey is part of NATO to make things even more complex.
[+] [-] seren|10 years ago|reply
EU needs the help of Turkey to host refugee camp on its territory, and at the same time, could be helped by Russian air force.
However,Turkey and Russia have totally opposite goals regarding Assad. So this is likely going to get worse, before getting better.
[+] [-] jcrei|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] honestcoyote|10 years ago|reply
So that's pretty telling. Russia showed a willingness to sweep this under the table but Turkey wouldn't let them.
[1] http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2015/nov/24/russian-je...
"President Putin is reportedly readying a statement. On Russian state television, there was little discussion of the Turkish claim they had shot the plane down, with anchors and analysts speculating that the Su-24 could have been shot down by rebels with anti-aircraft weapons. This chimes with the Russian Defence Ministry’s claim that the plane was shot down from the ground, but completely contradicts the Turkish statement that an F-16 from its airforce shot the plane down."
[+] [-] tomp|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] ZanyProgrammer|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] ch8230|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] redwood|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] skylan_q|10 years ago|reply
You're likely right. My guess is that they'll find ways to put more pressure on Turkey aside from threatening direct confrontation.
[+] [-] cryoshon|10 years ago|reply
The Russian anger is focused largely at Turkey, who is the ally nobody wants to have in the fight against ISIS... it's no secret that the Turkish MIT (intelligence agency) has been caught transferring weapons directly to radical Sunni groups near the border while killing Kurds whenever possible. I think the overarching idea of this incident is that everyone knew that an accident would happen eventually, and so a mature response is to take steps to increase coordination rather than saber rattle about a downed aircraft. A complication is that the Russian pilot who survived the crash was captured by rebels; I assume Russia will deal with this swiftly.
[+] [-] puppetmaster3|10 years ago|reply
to help put the context.
[+] [-] SyneRyder|10 years ago|reply
https://twitter.com/CNNTURK_ENG/status/669096544650600448
[The same diagram on Twitter Verified @CNN_Türk: https://twitter.com/cnnturk/status/669105783729180672 ]
The distance between borders at that point is 2 - 3km across (measured via Google Maps), which would be a few seconds of travel time. Russia claims the jet never even entered Turkish airspace. Following the red line, it seems to have crashed in Syrian airspace, not Turkish territory.
I was about to link to this next tweet as an example of the 3km border-to-border measurement, until I noticed... this is the only tweet this account has posted. Which rather undermines its own credibility & makes me wonder how much of a social media propaganda fight is also occurring right now:
https://twitter.com/Pere08331980/status/669106359355461633
[+] [-] georgecmu|10 years ago|reply
Turkey’s president said Saturday that his country would do “whatever is necessary” in response to the downing of a Turkish military jet by Syria, adding a new complication to the tense relationship between the former allies split by Turkey’s support for Syrian rebels trying to overthrow the government.
“It is not possible to cover over a thing like this,” said President Abdullah Gul of Turkey, according to the Anatolia news agency. “Whatever is necessary will no doubt be done.”
Syria said Friday that its military forces had shot down a Turkish jet that had entered its airspace just off the Syrian coast. But Mr. Gul said Saturday that while the exact route of the plane had not yet been confirmed, _it was routine for military jets flying at high speeds to briefly cross into another country’s airspace_, and that the jet’s presence over Syrian territory was not intended as a hostile act.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/24/world/middleeast/turkey-pr...
[+] [-] csomar|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] algorithmsRcool|10 years ago|reply
That doesn't really answer your question but hopefully gives some context.
[+] [-] Already__Taken|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] mring33621|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] happyscrappy|10 years ago|reply
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[+] [-] thedaemon|10 years ago|reply