[fancyketchup]

Wait, really?

The incremental lifetime earning from a Bachelor's degree is something like 0.5 to 1.5 million dollars[1]. The cost of attending college could double at least once before the ROI goes negative.

[1] https://cew.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/colleg...

[crabasa]

Here's a study that puts it closer to $500 for women and $800k for men:

https://news.ku.edu/2015/06/19/ku-study-gives-more-accurate-...

But these studies are all flawed because they are based on historical data when 4-year degrees were scarcer. In an era when many graduates can't get a job or end up with one that does not require a degree (i.e. barista) it's obvious that their ROI prospects are grim.

[fancyketchup]

Ok, that's fine. It's still within the range I mentioned above. But, I'll just note for the record that you rounded $587k down to $500k, and $840k down to $800k.

> But these studies are all flawed because they are based on historical data when 4-year degrees were scarcer. In an era when many graduates can't get a job or end up with one that does not require a degree (i.e. barista) it's obvious that their ROI prospects are grim.

I don't think that's at all obvious. We are rapidly approaching the moment [1] when over half of the U.S. population has some sort of college degree, and already 2/3rds have at least "some college" education.

Applying to a front-line retail job with a Bachelor's degree no longer marks you as desperate and over-qualified. You are assuming that an employer will hire a person with only a high school diploma when she can just as easily hire a person with an associate's or bachelor's for the same wage. That will put downward pressure on wages for those without a college degree.

It may very well be the case that sending "everyone" to college does nothing more than depress the wages of those with only a high school education. However, that is not an argument against the positive ROI of college. Spending $100k to avoid $200k in lost wages is still a positive return.

Finding a job with a B.A. or B.Sc. may be difficult, but finding a job with only a high school diploma is even more so.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Educational_attainment_in_the_...

[neil1]

You're forgetting about opportunity cost and the salary plus job advancement that you could achieve in the time you are in college

[fancyketchup]

The page I cited actually breaks down lifetime earnings by age (a.k.a. "annual income"). It's true that non-college graduates get an earlier start on savings, but the overall trend is that their annual income starts to decline as they get closer to retirement age (they peak in their mid to late 40's).

You have to assume totally unrealistic investment gains in the first four years to make up for the $500k less total income.