[fancyketchup]

Ok, that's fine. It's still within the range I mentioned above. But, I'll just note for the record that you rounded $587k down to $500k, and $840k down to $800k.

> But these studies are all flawed because they are based on historical data when 4-year degrees were scarcer. In an era when many graduates can't get a job or end up with one that does not require a degree (i.e. barista) it's obvious that their ROI prospects are grim.

I don't think that's at all obvious. We are rapidly approaching the moment [1] when over half of the U.S. population has some sort of college degree, and already 2/3rds have at least "some college" education.

Applying to a front-line retail job with a Bachelor's degree no longer marks you as desperate and over-qualified. You are assuming that an employer will hire a person with only a high school diploma when she can just as easily hire a person with an associate's or bachelor's for the same wage. That will put downward pressure on wages for those without a college degree.

It may very well be the case that sending "everyone" to college does nothing more than depress the wages of those with only a high school education. However, that is not an argument against the positive ROI of college. Spending $100k to avoid $200k in lost wages is still a positive return.

Finding a job with a B.A. or B.Sc. may be difficult, but finding a job with only a high school diploma is even more so.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Educational_attainment_in_the_...