I'm preparing for a crash in 2016. Unlike back in 2008, when the FED was able to "balance" it out by dropping the interest rate to almost 0%, we now won't have an airbag to save us.
The crash will come, sooner or later, and compared to that, 2008 was only a road bump, with all of us sitting in a big oil truck heading at a steel wall of a nuclear plant.
I don't know why you were down voted. I gave you a +1 to balance things out.
I also am preparing for a continuing slow burn (i.e., slow and steady downward trajectory in our economy and the world's economy). I would bet that there is less than a 10% chance the there will be a huge crash this particular year.
The thing is, and the reason I basically agree with you, is that preparing for a long slow downward economic trajectory is the same as preparing for a possible crash: maintain your health (physical, mental, spiritual); without going crazy, try to reduce your debt as much as is possible while still caring for our families; when possible spend some non-working time on education to learn new skills.
I think it is important to keep a cool head though - I believe that your last sentence was an overstatement.
>I'm preparing for a crash in 2016. Unlike back in 2008, when the FED was able to "balance" it out by dropping the interest rate to almost 0%, we now won't have an airbag to save us.
They may not be able to drop interest rates (much), but they can always print up money and use it to buy things as a way to inject cash into the economy. That's what QE was, after all.
You may be right about The Crash, and if your only time frame is "sooner or later", you are certainly correct. We will eventually have some sort of large economic downturn. But that's like predicting rain will fall, eventually. It may not happen until everyone reading this is long gone.
I find all the economic prodigies here entertaining. People who's day job is to predict this stuff can't even make good predictions. I guess I never knew that techies were better economists than the economists
Do you have anything to back that statement up, other than 20/20 hindsight? I'll admit that few economists get timing right on big macro events, but please don't tar us all with the same brush: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10166958
If you want to see some decent economic commentary, look here: http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/ . These guys have been screaming bloody murder for at least the past year.
When the dollar soared, a crash in emerging markets was extremely obvious. It has happened several times before under similar circumstances. It doesn't take a prodigy to understand how it works, it requires not putting your head into the sand and pretending fake good times (paid for via massive piles of debt and endless rounds of currency debasement) last forever.
Who's to say most economists are any good at their jobs? Did you see what many of them were saying during the obnoxiously obvious real-estate bubble of 2004-2007? The dotcom bubble? And so on.
I don't see how random people off the street can be worse economists than economists. Was there ever a profession that was wrong so often and still generally heeded? Nutritionists, maybe.
Fine. You want to know why it always seems to be the same 'clueless economists' churning out the same crap policy, resulting in crisis after crisis? Because politicians don't know jack about economics. They're a bunch of lawyers.
And you know why we have a bunch of economic dullards in power? Because the public (i.e. you), that keeps electing these idiots, can't even tell the difference between 'politics' and 'economics'. Nor can they tell the difference between 'share traders' and 'economists'. Go ahead and look at the top thread on this page.
And you know what? It's pretty clear you people (yes, you) are quite happy wallowing in your own ignorance, so that you can hold on to some smug sense of illusory superiority, while whining about 'how you could do so much better than these so called professionals'. Meanwhile, the few non-political and sensible economists left in government have been tearing their hair out for years because the public keeps electing a bunch of economically illiterate jackass politicians who refuse to see reason (truly a representative democracy).
So I hope you all enjoy the economic disaster that is now upon us, once again. You've earned it.
[+] [-] jpmattia|10 years ago|reply
A US investment bank finds that most US banks are OK? Boy that's reassuring.
Edit: My all-time favorite pronouncement http://www.cnbc.com/id/26332773
[+] [-] guelo|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] DrScump|10 years ago|reply
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/2857587-how-to-prosper-d...
The author certainly prospered; it was on the bestseller lists for months.
[+] [-] frign|10 years ago|reply
The crash will come, sooner or later, and compared to that, 2008 was only a road bump, with all of us sitting in a big oil truck heading at a steel wall of a nuclear plant.
[+] [-] simonebrunozzi|10 years ago|reply
Either provide data, or avoid pretending you know what the future will be.
[+] [-] WalterBright|10 years ago|reply
It's a meaningless prediction, as it is non-falsifiable. and non-actionable.
[+] [-] peteretep|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] mark_l_watson|10 years ago|reply
I also am preparing for a continuing slow burn (i.e., slow and steady downward trajectory in our economy and the world's economy). I would bet that there is less than a 10% chance the there will be a huge crash this particular year.
The thing is, and the reason I basically agree with you, is that preparing for a long slow downward economic trajectory is the same as preparing for a possible crash: maintain your health (physical, mental, spiritual); without going crazy, try to reduce your debt as much as is possible while still caring for our families; when possible spend some non-working time on education to learn new skills.
I think it is important to keep a cool head though - I believe that your last sentence was an overstatement.
[+] [-] gozur88|10 years ago|reply
They may not be able to drop interest rates (much), but they can always print up money and use it to buy things as a way to inject cash into the economy. That's what QE was, after all.
You may be right about The Crash, and if your only time frame is "sooner or later", you are certainly correct. We will eventually have some sort of large economic downturn. But that's like predicting rain will fall, eventually. It may not happen until everyone reading this is long gone.
[+] [-] carc|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] nostrademons|10 years ago|reply
That's probably a good part of why everyone has an opinion - when the "experts" are so clearly clueless, everybody's an expert.
"If we've got data, let's look at data. If all we have are opinions, let's go with mine." -- Jim Barksdale
[+] [-] spangry|10 years ago|reply
If you want to see some decent economic commentary, look here: http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/ . These guys have been screaming bloody murder for at least the past year.
[+] [-] adventured|10 years ago|reply
Who's to say most economists are any good at their jobs? Did you see what many of them were saying during the obnoxiously obvious real-estate bubble of 2004-2007? The dotcom bubble? And so on.
[+] [-] gozur88|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] etherael|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] crdoconnor|10 years ago|reply
When you get paid for lending academic legitimacy to politically 'useful' recommendations, accuracy isn't necessarily priority #1.
[+] [-] spangry|10 years ago|reply
And you know why we have a bunch of economic dullards in power? Because the public (i.e. you), that keeps electing these idiots, can't even tell the difference between 'politics' and 'economics'. Nor can they tell the difference between 'share traders' and 'economists'. Go ahead and look at the top thread on this page.
And you know what? It's pretty clear you people (yes, you) are quite happy wallowing in your own ignorance, so that you can hold on to some smug sense of illusory superiority, while whining about 'how you could do so much better than these so called professionals'. Meanwhile, the few non-political and sensible economists left in government have been tearing their hair out for years because the public keeps electing a bunch of economically illiterate jackass politicians who refuse to see reason (truly a representative democracy).
So I hope you all enjoy the economic disaster that is now upon us, once again. You've earned it.
[+] [-] thezealot|10 years ago|reply
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