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What’s Next in Computing?

300 points| MichaelAO | 10 years ago |medium.com | reply

148 comments

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[+] Animats|10 years ago|reply
Coming up next:

- If your job involves sitting at a desk, and your inputs and outputs come in via phone or display, expect to be automated.

- Automatic driving.

- AIs which sell. These will be annoying but effective.

- Big Brother will be much more effective.

- Within ten years, an AI running some investment will fire a CEO.

Probably not important:

- Virtual reality. Other than for games, it won't be big.

- Internet of Things for the home. Home remote control is a niche product. It's been available since the 1980s and never got much traction.

Not yet:

- Robots for routine unstructured tasks. Still a hard problem, from both a hardware, software, and cost perspective.

- Nanotechnology (excluding surface chemistry stuff)

[+] Balgair|10 years ago|reply
On VR: Medical uses, though niche, have deep pockets and there is a desperate need for VR there.

75% of children that experience an ICU still have PTSD (among other problems) 90 day after discharge. The DoD funded Bravemind project (Oculus Rift with a clinical 'wizard of Oz'-type iPad interface) has shown real progress for PTSD treatment. Maybe the Bravemind for children stuck in ICU can reduce psychosis, need for anti-depressants with co-morbidities, and general depression for these children. Meningitis patients and those about to undergo organ donation are isolated for a long period in-hospital; boredom doe not help their recovery at all. Imagine a hololens in a long term ICU situation. Suddenly this room that is filled with wires, beeping machines, scary stuff even to adults, it can become fun, it can become 'their' ICU. Think a boggart from Harry Potter, what is scary is now funny. Mario or Iron Man is now dancing on the ventilator. Imagine the healing that can come from bedridden patients that can take a walk in their backyards again, that can play again with their dogs.

The applications for surgeons are great as well. With VR they can see with more than just small holes and the tips of endoscopes. The vascular system comes out at them in real time and in real dimensions. Now the nurses can see what is going on with a patient's womb as labor is progressing from across the hospital and behind walls. The education is also great. Now a patient herself can better understand what is going on with her body. She can see what the doctor is telling her, and not be confused with jargon or a typo in a take-home sheet. And this can all be personalized to the patient themself.

Children's Hospital Colorado services from the Canadian to the Mexican border; it's Flight For Life air ambulances are the best in the world. A little birdy has mentioned to me that in late April there may or may not be a 'push' for VR in medicine announced there. Hopefully we can help heal these children better in this new future.

How do you think VR can be use in Medicine? I would love to hear ideas from HN.

[+] Ensorceled|10 years ago|reply
> Virtual reality. Other than for games, it won't be big.

There are other niche markets for VR: Interior Design, Real Estate (especially commercial), Education, Health Care, Industrial Design ...

Every major sports network is working to deliver VR for sporting events.

[+] gnaritas|10 years ago|reply
> Virtual reality. Other than for games, it won't be big.

Why? Effective and realistic VR has reach far beyond games, it could nearly eliminate most business travel and recreational travel. No need for a real office or commuting when a company can have a virtual office that feels real enough for workers to collaborate with presence. No need to blow large amounts of money travelling to real places that are either perfectly imitated in VR or blown away by cooler places that only exist within VR.

VR ain't just for gaming.

[+] juliendorra|10 years ago|reply
Internet of things on the actuators side is a continuous failure since decades (because most of the time you need to be near anyway). But on the sensor and data collection side, there is plenty of opportunities (and insurers and commodity providers for example are very much interested in it, from what I ear). Of course we get back to the "who will own your data" question.
[+] gfodor|10 years ago|reply
Have you tried an experience on a CV1 Rift or a HTC Vive? Before making judgements on VR I'd encourage you to try one of the modern VR platforms that will be coming out in April.
[+] Findeton|10 years ago|reply
You are really underestimating VR. You are not thinking on the applications that do not yet exists and no one has thought about yet. These will be the applications that will sell VR like donuts.
[+] SilasX|10 years ago|reply
Would you count programming as being in the first item? A lot of what keeps it from being automated is the boundary between the human specification and the machine implementation.
[+] NikhilVerma|10 years ago|reply
Just wondering, have you tried a VR headset of this generation? I feel a lot of people discount VR simply because they don't realise the possibilities.
[+] Can_Not|10 years ago|reply
> Virtual reality.

I'm interested in VR as an alternative to purchasing a 4k monitor and/or dual monitors for programming. I don't know how I'm going to do that, pretty much all Google results for "VR programming" are about programming video games, not programming using VR as an monitor alternative. I could probably do a better job googling.

[+] dustingetz|10 years ago|reply
Put VR headset in a football helmet. Then, a soldier. Then a civilian. Then the matrix.
[+] ianamartin|10 years ago|reply
whenever I see a headline of the formula, "What's next in X" I immediately think to myself, "probably not what this article thinks it is."

That said, yeah, some of the handwriting is on the wall. I think IoT will be the next big hit, not because people want it or will use any of it, but because that's all anyone is going to be selling. Samsung, LG, GE, et al. aren't going to give us a choice.

It won't be a big dramatic change like self-driving cars. It will be a slow trickle of toaster fridges that we don't notice until we are out trying to replace a washing machine one day and can't find one without a self-ironing board attached that wants to connect to our bed to know when to wake up the coffee pot that makes your egg-white substitute omelet and makes sure your shirt is wrinkle free at exactly the moment your shower dries you off and combs your hair.

And while all of us nerds are busy disabling all that crap so we can just clean some underwear, Wall Street will be declaring that IoT is here and winning! What they won't mention is that it's winning because there's nothing else left to buy.

[+] monk_e_boy|10 years ago|reply
I don't agree. There are plenty of things in my life that could be hooked up to some online AI to make them smarter.

Anything with a lock. Just figure out that I'm me and open. If I leave lock up. Open up for anyone on my authorised list.

More cameras pointed at stuff. Our local club (100 members) purchased a weather station and decent camera and pointed it at the sea so we can all check the wind and surf. Cool. More of these cheaper please.

We have Woo devices that we attach to kiteboards, these measure jump height, duration and G force. These are then synced to a phone and internet, so not quite IoT but close. More of these please. Attach them to anything that moves (shoes, kites, surfboards, swim fins, soccer balls, bike) more data is fun.

GoPros, most people I know have these. They need to be better hooked up to the internet.

I think there are a ton of IoT that will make sense and people will buy. Just because you don't see the value in a toaster hooked up to the 'net, doesn't mean the IoT is dumb. I think it's great.

[+] sbov|10 years ago|reply
I think some are genuinely useful.

Smart water sprinkler controllers seem generally useful. I used to forget to use our non-smart controller's "rain delay" all the time.

We also have an alert system setup to let us know when the outside temperature would meet the heating or cooling requirements of the thermostat. This is pretty useful in southern California.

A single switch to kill all your lights when you leave/go to bed is useful. But at $35 per smart switch you're going to shell out a lot of cash for this convenience.

My biggest issue with IoT as it is currently evolving is how reliant on the manufacturer they are to keep working. I would be surprised to see some of these devices working in 5 years, much less 20 or 30.

[+] ryanmonroe|10 years ago|reply
If no people want or will use IoT connected devices, what motivation do companies have to sell only IoT devices? I don't understand the logic behind this prediction (only IoT products available, but no one wants them). It seems a bit like predicting that in the future people will still prefer to write on paper, but no companies will sell paper anymore, only tablets. Maybe there's a key motivating factor I'm missing?
[+] dzhiurgis|10 years ago|reply
What you've ironically described is home automation facilitated by IoT.

Cheap IoT devices can be installed just about any manufacturing and agricultural device. Heck, you'll be able to monitor each individual plant health. Your car will be able to notify of failing components before they actually failed (FFT and irregular frequency monitoring).

[+] jug|10 years ago|reply
Yes, we recently talked about IoT devices here at work, but the thing is, it wasn't ignited by people who had even heard or knew the "IoT" moniker. It's hard to tell what will be a hit from my world since I'm so deep into IT that I often lack the perspective, but that one was a good test of how it's already been entering consumer mindsets.
[+] eva1984|10 years ago|reply
I think people need to pay more attention to the current AI status. It is rapidly maturing and offering surprises every year. Most of the progress didn't make to the news, as AlphaGo level, but it is going to have bigger impact to our lives, even our jobs.

like: http://arxiv.org/abs/1512.00965

[+] amelius|10 years ago|reply
It would be nice if there were a searchable blog about AI and its applications. That way, even people like me who are not so interested in the algorithms behind deep learning, can still see where this technology is heading.
[+] dcw303|10 years ago|reply
I had a Windows Mobile phone in 2005 (One of the earlier O2 XDA models, from memory) and it certainly fell into the gestation phase. Email was passable if you were connected to an Exchange server, but tapping out long responses with the stylus was a chore. It was definitely possible to browse the web, but the prevailing Windows-style point and click interface combined with a low res screen made it more trouble than it was worth. At the time, I couldn't imagine how to make mobile easier to use, but once I experienced an iPhone it was very obvious that the Touch UI fundamentally changed things.

I say this because I got an Oculus DK2 a couple of years ago, and after a month of enthusiastic use it got cast aside. I know it doesn't affect everyone, but I suffered from some nausea which soured me quickly. Queasiness aside though, There was a bigger problem. When I tried a demo, there was an obvious wow factor at the start, but it wore off quickly. Just attaching VR to standard 3D game was not as exciting as I had hoped.

The first television programs were essentially radio shows with a camera put in front of the presenter, until someone was able to use video to harness the story telling possibilities. The first web sites were glorified electronic newspapers, and then someone figured out how to integrate interactivity that was impossible in print. All new media forms intially imitates the old. As McLuhan said, the medium is the message.

I think it will take an as-yet unknown paradigm shift to make VR compelling.

[+] hellomrjack|10 years ago|reply
I am actually looking for people who are susceptible to VR motion sickness, I worked on a VR project where we tried to make it as accessible as possible. It would be really useful for me to see how it is for people who are particularly affected by it. You can grab it from https://share.oculus.com/app/super-turbo-atomic-ninja-rabbit... (I defiantly agree that a lot more work needs doing to work out how to tell stories effectively with VR).
[+] skewart|10 years ago|reply
That is a really good point. I suspect in 20 years we will look back and laugh at how today's VR apps kind of MIS the point of what you can do with it.

I think VR has tons of potential for office/enterprise apps because the richer spatial experience can enable new ways of visualizing and working with information.

[+] kordless|10 years ago|reply
I wrote a hypothesis [1] on the cause and effect of the cycles Chris mentions. With those assumptions about the separation of user and their data in mind, I make the following near term technology predictions:

- a swing back to private cloud will be kicked off by container/microkernel technologies, starting the largest cycle we've seen to date in terms of growth and value

- public cloud computing growth will slow slightly and will have to refocus on lower privacy needs use-cases (or die trying)

- IoT and cloud computing will start to merge as a market, where the compute resources of your IoT devices are used to operate on the data other IoT devices nearby

- cryptocurrencies and the blockchain will finally find a home in securing the processes behind cloud provisioning of what was known previously as SaaS software

- cryptocurrency deployments make open source project's revenue models sustainable

- open source hardware, including circuitry, becomes ubiquitously available via physical printing processes, which then drives the IoT and cloud computing markets even higher.

- the digital nomad lifestyle explodes as a result of the changes to the open source model

- startups and the VC culture in Silicon Valley will be forced to retool their financial strategies and software business models for accessing decentralized markets

- a meltdown of global financial markets will be the only thing which enables bringing positive, decentralized change to those financial markets.

As John Chambers, chairman of Cicso said a few years back, "You're going to see a brutal, brutal consolidation of the IT industry". Better buckle up.

[1] https://medium.com/@kordless/an-ecology-of-cloud-1cedfa326b8...

BTW, there is only one thing that will make me stop coming to HN and participating in the community, and that's when I see people's opinions on something downvoted. Downvote if you must, but keep in mind it's a game of blame if the post you are downvoting is someone's opinion or view on something, which itself is blameless.

[+] eitally|10 years ago|reply
All of the points subsequent to your first one conflict with that conjecture, that we'll see a huge swing back toward private cloud & on-premise DCs.

Speaking from where I saw the industry [when I was a part of it] and now from what kinds of CIO/CTO conversations I see the GCP AMs/SEs having, I don't think we're remotely close to a swing back. Enterprise Capex budgets move VERY slowly most of the time, and it will take a multiple years to alter current momentum, which has finally reached the point where it's almost a foregone conclusion for many industries that on-prem DCs no longer make sense.

This opinion is driven almost as much by the increasingly compelling portfolio of enterprisy SaaS products like Netsuite and a plethora of workforce management, CRMs, analytics/visualization, sooooo much more of what has historically been internally developed business productivity apps.

[+] jedberg|10 years ago|reply
I think the author is right about cars being next. There is a lot of work by a lot of people in this area, and one of them is going to get it very right (my personal bet is on Tesla or Apple).
[+] wr1472|10 years ago|reply
You're choosing Apple over all the existing car manufacturers? What have done in this space other that carplay?
[+] ocdtrekkie|10 years ago|reply
I suspect we will finally reach the point where enough is enough on proprietary cloud, and we'll start to see decentralization taking a strong forefront again.

A lot of big companies are driving this AI talk, but by and large it helps them more than it helps the rest of us.

[+] pixl97|10 years ago|reply
>but by and large it helps them more than it helps the rest of us.

Correct. If you have 10,000 employees and you could replace 5,000 of them with 'computerized smarts' you shift a huge amount of liabilities. They don't require health insurance that seems to go up in cost every year. No retirement fund is needed. In theory the costs of using AI will go down over time per unit of work accomplished.

As for an individual it is difficult to see how AI will decrease our workload, increase our happiness, or increase our wealth.

[+] dfischer|10 years ago|reply
Something that has been on my mind lately is are we near the end of viable startups in apps? I mean this in a multi-platform approach not just mobile. But for apps in general I am starting to feel what's possible has been done and we are nearing a point where the big guys are already doing it and you might as well just join FANG instead of building something on your own.

Maybe I'm getting jaded though.

There are always new niches coming out... And there are reinvented cycles. Like how many big dating apps have been there since the 90s? Quite a bit actually. Can there really be another dating app in current internet app standards between desktop and mobile? Probably not.

Maybe the next dating app will be in VR and AR. In fact I guarantee it.

But I'm feeling that we are getting tapped out on app ideas before the next flood.

Makes me a little sad because I'm more entrepreneurial than anything and not feeling many problems to solve lately. Maybe it's just me. Anyone else feel similar?

[+] deegles|10 years ago|reply
More platforms = more opportunities. The Kim Kardashian game on Android/iOS made $200 million dollars in 2014. You don't have to come up with a new niche to be wildly successful, you can innovate on execution.

That being said, I believe there is huge potential for new types of voice-only apps on the Amazon Alexa platform.

[+] rwallace|10 years ago|reply
I think this is true at the current tech level. That is, if your product idea is a website or a phone app (as opposed to using these things to solve a problem in some other domain), it's unlikely to be worth doing. I think the next big opportunities will come with the next technological breakthrough (Internet of things, robotics, AI, nanotech, whatever) and that's the direction to aim for.
[+] Can_Not|10 years ago|reply
If AR, VR, and IoT kick off simultaneously, I wonder what the malicious exploit, microtransaction heavy crapware, and indie game scenes are going to be like.
[+] ronnier|10 years ago|reply
What if there's an upper limit on what can be created and what if we are mostly there. What if we never really progress much beyond where we are other than gradually getting faster, longer battery life, and more storage. Games and movies and TV shows are now mostly sequels and rehashed versions. A 2006 car vs a 2016... Basically the same.
[+] nwjtkjn|10 years ago|reply
There were no self-driving cars in 2006, and electric cars seemed like a far off dream.
[+] Geee|10 years ago|reply
I think the general trend is that computers start to understand and be aware of physical world, rather than just numbers entried by humans. And not just understand, but manipulate, which means that you can go to forest and run forest.foreach(tree => { if(tree.length > 5) cut() }) I.e the world becomes computable (or rather manipulatable).
[+] AndrewKemendo|10 years ago|reply
I am biased as an AR developer, but I think Chris underplays the impact of AR as a computing and communications platform.

AI - and eventually AGI - is an application of computation. It's revolutionary and I think will transform everything but it's not a computing platform. That is, AI itself doesn't have an interface, so it still needs a platform to run on. AR and eventually BCI and wetware are the platforms for interfacing with it.

Cars aren't a computing platform either - they will certainly utilize and be transformed by new waves of computation capabilities, but cars aren't a replacement for a personal computer.

Same with Drones and IOT. I think wearables will fall to AR as well - or rather integrate with it as a peripheral.

So when asking what is next for computing, in the context of the evolution of interface/platform from Mainframe to Micro computer to Smartphone, AR is unquestionably "next" as a platform.

[+] karmacondon|10 years ago|reply
What's the killer app for AR? speadsheets:computing, email:internet, ____::AR?
[+] digi_owl|10 years ago|reply
The big problem i foresee with AR is that frankly it needs to be always on to be effective.

But have you tried keeping a smartphone out of sleep for a day? You will be lucky if you get through a full work day without needing a charge. And thats on a device you can put down while doing something else.

[+] eximius|10 years ago|reply
AGI? Definition?
[+] vannevar|10 years ago|reply
My own prediction is that in terms of personal computing, the hardware will start to fade into the background, along with the OS. AI will take over consumer mindshare. Windows, iOS, and Android will give way to Cortana, Siri, whatever Google comes up with, and Amazon's Alexa. Probably something similar from Facebook as well. The consistent user experience with any of them will be available everywhere. It won't be important to carry a particular device, the hardware around you will recognize you. I already catch myself trying to ask Alexa for something in my car. I'm sure Amazon will make that a reality sooner rather than later.
[+] fizixer|10 years ago|reply
The scene is from Terminator 2 (1992) not The Terminator (1984).
[+] Houshalter|10 years ago|reply
How did he miss robots? He talked all about AI and self driving cars, but missed robots.

Robots have been pretty good for decades, but waiting for AI to get good enough to take advantage of it. This is just starting to happen.

[+] mastax|10 years ago|reply
> Of particular importance are GPUs (graphics processors), the best of which are made by Nvidia.

Don't let any gaming forums see this, they'll be arguing for weeks afterward

[+] crb002|10 years ago|reply
Processors in memory like Micron's Automata http://www.micronautomata.com

Von Neuman arch is dead for a lot of simple compute tasks. CISC central CPU will only be used for very specific workloads that need custom circutry like floating point units. Also, every CPU will come with a small FPGA stock, not just the on die GPU that AMD offers.

[+] greendestiny_re|10 years ago|reply
Predicting the future is a thoroughly thankless task.

I just wish the author of this article elaborated more on the financial side of the AI revolution, rather than just mentioning it at the start and then dropping it completely.

[+] bholdr|10 years ago|reply
"Post hoc ergo propter hoc" (Latin)
[+] Sven7|10 years ago|reply
DARPA's SyNAPSE and then the self powered brain of an ant. That's computing. Everything else could find place on what's next in consumerist garbage.
[+] rwallace|10 years ago|reply
The 'consumerist garbage' is what's paying to build the factories that make the chips that power the exciting research stuff.
[+] amatic|10 years ago|reply
Plastic analog neural networks. Here is a bit : www.billpct.org