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Millennials Flee Vancouver for More Affordable Cities

197 points| bvanvugt | 10 years ago |bloomberg.com | reply

260 comments

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[+] lewisl9029|10 years ago|reply
As someone who's lived in Vancouver for more than 10 years, then went to Waterloo for school (and lived in Toronto for most of my co-ops/internships), I think we Canadians should be more worried about highly educated millennials fleeing Canada entirely. Everybody I know from school who were offered the option to work in the US have picked up their Canadian degrees and left.

To the Canadian tech industry: How are you ever going to become competitive with the US if you keep offering these humiliatingly low salaries and letting the best and brightest of our own talent get leeched away?

[+] imrehg|10 years ago|reply
I think that's an issue everywhere in the world. I'm living in Taiwan (not from here originally), and the tech scene is really being hollowed out for years if not decades. The really best, brightest, and most motivated people are already working abroad. "Humiliating" is a strong word, but the more I think about it, the more apt it feels, there should be a lot more reward for the good techies here (there are some left, miraculously!)
[+] peanut_merchant|10 years ago|reply
We have a similar problem in Scotland, I know a lot of people would love to have continued living in Scotland but can make >2 times the salary as a developer by making the move down to London. The cost of living in London is higher, but the increase in pay more than makes up for this. Granted, this is a move within the UK so it's not really a drain on the UK's economy but it leads to a more London-centric economy and, with an increasingly devolved Scottish parliament, is not good for Scotland.
[+] mabbo|10 years ago|reply
Some do leave, yes. Many come back home later.

Amazon opened the Toronto office back in 2011 because there was demand- Canadians who didn't want to live in America anymore- often because of family, friends back home or because they wanted to have kids and not raise them as Americans, culturally.

It started with less than 10 people, plus the hiring they were able to do locally. It's now an office of over 300 people, maybe 100 of which transferred from Seattle. And the transfers back haven't slowed much- lots of folks simply want to come back home after a few years.

Lots of room here to grow. If Trump wins, I expect we'll need it.

[+] tonyarkles|10 years ago|reply
It's fascinating, in Saskatoon we've got a pretty neat little tech community. Some people leave, but there's a few companies that identified that people were leaving or contracting remotely and increased their salaries to be sufficiently enticing to keep people here.

There's still some people who leave (apparently there was a thing for a while at Apple where people would hang their Saskatchewan license plates on their cubes), but as a whole there's a lot of people staying and making good money here. In the last 10 years or so since I've graduated, entry-level salaries are up probably 50-70% and intermediate-experience salaries around $90-100k/yr aren't unheard of.

[+] forgetsusername|10 years ago|reply
>Everybody I know from school who were offered the option to work in the US have picked up their Canadian degrees and left.

This is what young people do; they adventure. Then, many times, they come back to their roots to settle down.

I'm sure there're a few people around these parts with anecdata regarding the joys of finding housing and raising a family in the SF Bay Area.

[+] kspaans|10 years ago|reply
Disclaimer: grew up in Ontario, studied at UWaterloo, then worked at BB, then worked in London, UK for 2 years, and now moving to Silicon Valley on a TN visa.

I wouldn't worry _too_ much about the brain drain. Sure the US is more lucrative for young people, but I would say Canada is more lucrative for families. Consider the public schools in Canada vs in the US, and cost of a UW degree vs a comparable university degree in the US. I don't think that most young Canadians who move to the US will stay there permanently.

[+] zeemonkee3|10 years ago|reply
Is the question that Canadian companies genuinely can't pay more, or just that they won't, for whatever reason?
[+] arvinsim|10 years ago|reply
This also happens in third world countries too. I think this is happens when one can easily compare salaries all over the world.
[+] kevindeasis|10 years ago|reply
The brain drain is definitely a big issue in Canada.

On the bright the cost of living will end up being cheaper in Canada if you can get my flow ;)

[+] rgawdzik|10 years ago|reply
Many Canadians return back to Canada; even Drake lives in Toronto :)
[+] mhkhung|10 years ago|reply
There is always (your) life cycles. Both myself and my brother Waterloo grads in the 90s. He is in the sv and I stayed in Toronto. My company sent me down to the valley to "help" for a few months (ie living and food all expensed) when I was still fresh. Hated it.. there is nothing at night. So I never have the urge to move there afterwards.

Then once you have multiple kids, single income doesn't take you far in the valley even with Google scale salary and mortgage. Plus Amazon has dev centre in downtown Toronto that pays well (not silicon valley well, but Seattle well). (Yes, startups don't pay well in Toronto, but then there are lots of small and profitable sw firms that pays decently).

Or just convince google to move that Kitchener office to Toronto, when so many people are commuting anyway..

And then, Vancouver is always a retirement city..

[+] drchiu|10 years ago|reply
Agreed. It's just so easy to hire in Canada right now due to the strong USD Exchange Rate. Many startups make money in USD and hire in CAD.
[+] wingsonfire|10 years ago|reply
Exactly same issue with India. India has tons of IT Company and Government invests a lot in education.. obviously pay is more in US but I think it is also environment.

That makes me wonder what has US done right to remain talent magnet

[+] mathattack|10 years ago|reply
According to the article real estate costs in Vancouver are half that of San Francisco. Are salaries half too?
[+] greggarious|10 years ago|reply
I agree as an American. I've met some super smart Canadians in SF and DC. They all say basically the same thing: most Canadian cities have a high cost of living, and salaries don't always keep up, so much so that even the Bay Area is attractive over Vancouver, since at least there's tons of jobs to choose from and they can optimize on salary with many offers.
[+] deepGem|10 years ago|reply
I always thought that Canada's low pay was balanced by their universal healthcare. No ?
[+] toomanybeersies|10 years ago|reply
It's not that Canada or anywhere else in the world has humiliatingly low salaries, it's just that the USA has such strong regulations on skilled immigration, that the wages for developers are artificially inflated.

Most other countries, when faced with a shortage of workers in an industry, prioritise them over everyone else. In New Zealand, you need a certain amount of points to immigrate, and being in a high demand industry gives you a whole stack of points. Meanwhile, the USA still runs a lottery for immigration, as well as H1B, which is a lot more restricted than skilled immigration to a lot of other countries.

[+] tallanvor|10 years ago|reply
I see this as a problem all over the world. - San Francisco, Seattle, New York, Vancouver, London, Oslo... Really the list could go on for quite a while.

So many of these cities feel like they have to retain their "identity" or the "feel" of the town, so they set restrictions that make it very hard to develop properties that can hold more people. The result is always the same: continually increasing prices in the center of the city whether you want to rent or buy, so you have to go further and further out to find something affordable, especially if you are young or if your parents can't help you finance a purchase.

This is going to continue until planning commissions start allowing the construction of higher density housing.

[+] jakobegger|10 years ago|reply
I'm not sure if a fix would be so easy. Housing prices have been rising everywhere, even in small cities like my home town, where a decent amount of construction is going on.

I think that the biggest reason for growing housing prices are the currently low interest rates.

There are two factors that cause rising prices (due to low interest rates):

1) It's more affordable than ever to borrow money, so people are willing to pay higher prices, and even people with little savings can afford to buy a home. At 8% interest rates nobody would be able to afford current prices. This means that sellers can ask much higher prices.

2) Since interest rates are so low, people are increasingly looking at the housing market as an investment opportunity. Aspiring homeowners now have to compete with deep-pocketed investors leading to a further increase in prices.

So I think that housing prices would naturally fall if interest rates went up. (Of course, for young people without savings this makes little difference; they would likely end up paying just as much due to higher financing costs.)

[+] mcmatterson|10 years ago|reply
It's telling that Toronto isn't on that list. It's taken me a decade of living here to really understand what makes this place tick, and one thing that's become clear is that a near universal friendliness to newcomers in both word and deed is a huge part of Toronto's identity. I've said it before in many conversations on the topic, but I think that this pervasive openness is going to do nothing but help Toronto's place on the world stage
[+] ZanyProgrammer|10 years ago|reply
There was an article a couple of months ago, shared all around urbanist social media, lamenting that rental prices in Seattle were declining because of an increased supply of housing (it was in one of those ubiquitous business insider journal type magazines). For a variety of reasons, it can be hard to increase supply, but that's the best way (barring a recession) to lower the cost of housing.
[+] Tiktaalik|10 years ago|reply
Vancouver has various restrictions just like any town, but in general it would be incorrect to state that they restrict construction or don't build high density buildings. Comparing a photo of 1990s downtown Vancouver to now it is shocking how many glassy residential towers there are now. Vancouver and its satellite cities are constantly building new condo buildings.

I suppose you can always argue that a city can build more, but I've seen more construction cranes in Vancouver than just about any city I've ever visited.

I think more dominant issues that have influenced the price of Vancouver housing is low interest rates, lax lending rules, government policies that promote home ownership and speculation, and the influx of foreign capital.

[+] eru|10 years ago|reply
Locally the people who own the land (and small houses on top) often obstruct that very planning process for higher density housing.
[+] zeemonkee3|10 years ago|reply
> This is going to continue until planning commissions start allowing the construction of higher density housing.

Or we have more remote jobs, and/or satellite offices. For example in the UK why have your developers in London? Open an office in Newcastle or Glasgow, you're just a few hours away by train (an hour on the plane) and you'll save a fortune on salaries and office space (and probably a tax break or two). Or use remote workers where it makes sense.

[+] hoorayimhelping|10 years ago|reply
>This is going to continue until planning commissions start allowing the construction of higher density housing.

This is already happening here in New York City and has been for a few years. It's not solving the problem and honestly this seems like pretty a reductive way of stating the problem.

[+] emodendroket|10 years ago|reply
That is, frankly, a very small part of the problem. The housing that does tend to get built in these cities is almost universally luxury housing.
[+] illumin8|10 years ago|reply
This seems to be a direct result of capital flight from China. Wealthy chinese who are able to get their money out (through corruption, money laundering, or otherwise) are looking for somewhere safe to park their money for the inevitable decline in value of the yuan. China can only artificially peg their money to the dollar for so long, until they run out of dollars, and they are drawing down their reserves at a record pace due to the appreciation of the dollar.

Wealthy chinese know this, and use real estate in markets such as Vancouver, SF, and NYC, because it's fairly low risk and likely to appreciate. See http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/01/13/462994857/... and http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/14/us/us-will-track-secret-bu...

[+] pkaler|10 years ago|reply
I'm standing at my desk in my apartment that I pay $1589/month for. An equivalent apartment in SF or NYC would be $3500 or higher.

The problems are two-fold.

1) Vancouver hasn't created a single-family detached home lot since the 1970s. There is an ocean to the west, the US border to the south, Burrard Inlet and mountains to the north. There just isn't any land. The only way to expand is east into the Fraser Valley.

The single-family detached home is dead. Live in a condo. Everyone gets a view. Everyone gets sunshine. Everyone gets services. Everyone gets a park a block away. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vancouverism

2) Vancouver companies pay dick-all for salaries because Vancouver companies make dick-all for revenue. Everyone that lives here and can afford works or consults for a company that is not from Vancouver. A tech company that can't afford to pay an employee to rent a $1589/month apartment is not a tech company.

[+] dghughes|10 years ago|reply
> This seems to be a direct result of capital flight from China.

It's even happening to tiny PEI in the east we have seen a massive surge of Chinese people (to clarify yes from China) investing in and living in the province.

Five years ago you could walk down the street and it was typical small town Canada last summer I went to a Starbucks and every single person was Chinese. There are now at least two if not three Buddhist monasteries too.

I'm not complaining I like the new investment and more people living here I'm saying it's not just a Vancouver or Toronto thing. Although here it's more business investing here not so much speculative condo buying.

[+] ConfuciusSay02|10 years ago|reply
You're right, but the implication of your post is that there's nothing Canada could do about the problem.

The correct response is that Canada should implement Australian-style restrictions on foreign ownership of real estate. This problem has been solved before, it's not that hard.

It would suck for those who bought into the game late, those in the high-end RE business, but the benefits of having a real estate market that has actual price discovery based on the population who could actually live in the properties is definitely worth it, because housing would become more affordable, disposable income would increase, and consumer debt would decrease.

[+] emodendroket|10 years ago|reply
I mean, yes, but who says cities have to allow Chinese investment to dominate the market rather than the people who live in these cities? Maybe that is the best political choice, but it is a political choice and we all pretend it's a neutral and inexorable natural law.
[+] raverbashing|10 years ago|reply
The Chinese are parking their money there, that's what's happening

Hence people paying millions of dollars for a house that's falling apart

But I'm glad to hear about Victoria.

[+] anuj_nm|10 years ago|reply
In the past year, I've had 3 colleagues quit their jobs at a Vancouver startup to work remotely for a US company (to get paid in USD). Tech salaries in Vancouver are too low for the cost of living.

Its especially discouraging to see an employer with offices in Seattle and Vancouver offer their Canadian employees salaries that are >30% lower than their American counterparts. I won't be surprised if Canadians working remotely becomes commonplace.

[+] tempestn|10 years ago|reply
The USD median house price in Vancouver is misleading too, because it wasn't long ago that the dollar was at parity, and incomes certainly haven't changed much as the dollar has dropped by a third.

Anyway, so far the effect on Victoria seems to be our own mini (compared to Vancouver; still nuts for most of the world) housing boom. I have three couples of close friends all house-hunting right now, and it's not a fun time to be doing so. I can't imagine committing to pay the better part of a million dollars for something with less than a day's deliberation, no time for an inspection, and a need to offer over asking price to even have a hope of "winning".

[+] vanthrow|10 years ago|reply
I'm a millennial immigrant to Vancouver (came with my family when I was 10).

I'm a software developer by trade.

The problems are real, but the outcome is greatly exaggerated.

The fact is MOST millennials outside the most lucrative STEM/Law/Finance fields are in no position to be buying real estate anywhere in North America.

And the Vancouver rental market is actually not half bad. You can get a basement suite for under $1000 in the city proper. You can get a 2 bedroom downtown for $2000. Or at least you could a year ago, the Canadian dollar has plummeted.

Meanwhile people are weighing in with terrible salary stories. It's also not exactly true. Yes, I could make more in Seattle, and even MORE in Silicon Valley. But there are lifestyle costs to both. I value the Vancouver lifestyle quite highly. Now, full disclosure, I moved to Europe for a 2-3 year transfer with my company last year. But this was also a lifestyle based decision to allow me to travel more - I took a paycut.

The truth about salaries is Amazon pays very well (though not as well as in the States). Microsoft pays very well. So does Facebook, and Apple, and Salesforce pays the best (supposedly they are competitive with US salaries). These big players are forcing the rest of the market to kick up. And all these players are also relatively new to the scene (most growth in the last 5 years). As a result, I foresee in the next few years a lot of ex-employees from these places going out on their own and doing great things in the startup community, or commanding similar salaries from local shops that want to get experienced engineers with big scale experience.

The problem with Vancouver is it's hard to find a city to compare it to. Yes, the economy isn't the strongest it can be, but the proximity to nature is unbelievable and very difficult to match. That intangible IS worth something despite people not taking advantage of it complaining that "that's all there is". If you don't care about world-class ocean and mountain sports in close proximity to outstanding international food options, this city is not for you. There are places with more vibrant art and culture and nightlife scenes, no doubt. But if you make the most of Vancouver's strengths, it is unbeatable.

[+] tinduck|10 years ago|reply
I'll be honest. It's hard for me to hate on Vancouver too much as I truly think Urban planning is difficult.

I think people should move to lower costs cities if the situation makes sense for them. Vancouver might be at a disadvantage due to Brain Drain at this specific moment in time, but I believe there's an argument to be made that Vancouver has significantly been a beneficiary of Brain Drain from other countries in the past.

As the USA and Canada continues to transition to a knowledge based economy, our cities should emulate what made Vancouver a economic powerhouse, which is a world class research university, great public transportation, and effective immigration programs. Now, there are things you can't emulate like great weather or prestige, but we can make more cities like San Francisco or Vancouver.

[+] voltagex_|10 years ago|reply
I really like Victoria and I hope the town does well out of this. I'm sad that I may not be able to afford to live in Vancouver anytime soon, though.
[+] Tistel|10 years ago|reply
I lived in Vancouver for 5 years. Beautiful spot. Met a lot of interesting people from all over the world. But, even by Canadian standards (which are much lower than the US) the salaries in Vancouver are notoriously low. A much better (2X) offer brought me to Toronto.

Staring to feel the same about Toronto too expense and hassle wise. Want to try remote work from the States and live in the country in Canada. Only interia prevents me.

[+] Nickersf|10 years ago|reply
While we're moving south... Portland is next. Are we all trying to catch of up with SF cost of living?
[+] johnm1019|10 years ago|reply
I find it interesting that due to high rent prices the article hypothesizes that people are moving away from Vancouver and the next upcoming city is a peninsula on an island? What do you think is going to happen in the real-estate market there?
[+] JackPoach|10 years ago|reply
Yep, Canadian tech salaries can't compete with Silicon Valley
[+] Reason077|10 years ago|reply
If millennial are fleeing Vancouver for London because they can't afford housing, as this article suggests, they're going to be very disappointed with our housing prices!
[+] Tiktaalik|10 years ago|reply
I think it's likely that tech in Vancouver is having trouble hiring and retaining as millenials flee to SF, where they can get paid dramatically more, but in general Vancouver is seeing net gains in millenials.

I have no idea how Bloomberg made their chart but using census and BC stats data no one has been able to reproduce it.

This UBC sociology prof crunched BCStats numbers and found that there is net positive millenial migration into Vancouver.

https://homefreesociology.wordpress.com/2016/03/16/ch-ch-ch-...

This doesn't change the fact that the unaffordability situation in Vancouver is deeply problematic and is probably accelerating a brain drain to the USA.

[+] rdlecler1|10 years ago|reply
This is a major issue everywhere. Take stagnant wage growth and stack that up against high housing costs and you have a double pinch. Prospects are extremely bleak.
[+] tdicola|10 years ago|reply
Get ready Seattleites, we're next. The housing market is already going a bit bonkers with no sign of slowing down.
[+] hokkos|10 years ago|reply
When the forced reload timeout of the page (to gather more fake views) is less than the video duration of your article you know your site is broken.
[+] clessg|10 years ago|reply
What is currently the best way for a Canadian tech worker to get into the US? Still the same situation as usual?
[+] rgoldade|10 years ago|reply
There is a diaspora of Vancouverites in their late 20s, early 30s here in Toronto. They left home for better employment and housing opportunities. I think we all would love to move back but it's just not worth it. Vancouver is a better city than Toronto but not THAT much better.