Creating an affordable EV at mass consumer scale is a much harder problem than creating a luxury EV at modest volume. However, if there was anyone I would bet on making this work and building an amazing car, it would be Elon Musk and team.
One minor counter to this is that you shouldn't get too caught up in the hype about this being a mass-produced car. HN and tech journalism is a bit of a bubble. Normal people do not spend $35-40k on a car. We're still talking about a high-end vehicle. Nobody driving a Model 3 is going to be devastated when it needs to go in the shop.
TL;DR: IMHO, if nothing will change drastically in battery tech, after 100 years, we will have same problem with EVs as we now have the problem with combustion engines and oil.
IMHO, one of the biggest problems from the tech side (I know that there are many hard problems, but this concerns me the most) is battery manufacturing.
They already have built the gigafactory which produces (or will produce) more batteries (or the power they produce) than the rest factories in the world.
But battery technology must have a breakthrough and probably sooner than most of us think. Currently known lithium reserves will 'support global demand until 2100' (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium#Reserves). Also, very efficient battery recycling and reuse must be further developed.
I hope that in 100 years, we'll discover and develop battery technology which is affordable, ecological (will not deplete Earth's recourses completely), efficient (e.g. power to weight ratio), etc. I know that there is development going for this, but I think it will be a long time until new battery tech will be in our home.
The hype is too much indeed. It's actually concerning - I believe that a lot of people will get their $1000 back, once the first negative review hits, and this is going to backlash. And we are definitely going to see such reviews, because the negative and "something-gate" news sell well.
Disclaimer: I am a fan of Elon.
p.s. Why am I being downvoted without a response?
He actually gambled the house of cards early on. SpaceX needed money, he bet Tesla, and they got lucky.
It's not simply that he's a great entrepreneur, it's that his goals seem to be slightly different from others. Every business owner wants to make a lot of money, but Musk has decided to do that via pushing humanity into a Sci-fi future as soon as possible.
I like the "house of cards" metaphor. After learning how these three companies could help each other in his biography, I think the possibility of collapse is actually pretty low.
Indeed. I put a little bit of money into Tesla, and a big part of it was that I think Musk is just a good executive, and TSLA is the only place I can really put money behind that belief.
Trying not to be too much of a fan boy I smiled at the fact that, on its way to develop EV market recognition and infrastructure they made cars that topped anything else in safety and speed.
'if you want to have EV, all you have to do is buy the best cars we just made' kind of.
They clearly underestimated the cost of the Model S (it's a luxury car, not a "sporty affordable family car"). But overall their strategy seems to be working out beautifully.
Some people are skeptical about electric cars because the estimate life span of a battery is around eight years.
But reading the article above (and others) you can see the batteries are not an issue anymore.
I was also a little skeptical about electric cars but I think the absolute pros are:
* Electricity can come from any source (coal, nuclear, sun, water, waste, aliens).
* No emission (in cities).
* No noise pollution.
But I still got one issue with a lot of those environment friendly solutions.
Because why would you use a lot of energy for sensors, insane mode, automatic doors, displays, computers, and so on?
I know you need some of them but in the end environment friendly means: using less energy (in any form).
> but in the end environment friendly means: using less energy (in any form).
Is it? I thought it meant no harm to the environment. If the charging station is powered by solar energy, I don't see how using the otherwise wasted energy wrong.
EVs will still generate a fair amount of noise pollution. There will be important improvements for city quality of life, mostly in reductions in the sub 35kmh acceleration/deceleration moments. But for highway speeds the reductions will not be that big.
and his take on it (in amongst lots of other cool info), learned from later consulting for those same companies, was that the car companies outsourced everything but the engine. Then tesla came along, bought all the standard parts (windscreen wipers etc.) from these third party companies, and have no need for ICE engines.
So now you have people, who built their entire corporate status hierarchy around ICE engine experience, trying to start afresh.
>It's just crazy to see them beat the competition so badly.
The BMW electric cars (i3 and i8) are quite successful, beating Tesla sales-wise in Germany and selling half as many world-wide.
The great weakness of the Tesla S in the German market ist the German autobahn, where it runs out of energy very quickly (after an hour or so for aggressive drivers). The Tesla S is not designed for sustained high speeds.
The lifetime of most cars is 14-20 years (half of it on the second-hand market). Tesla's is 8 years, if I understand. It makes their cars twice as expensive in effect.
> It's just crazy to see them beat the competition so badly.
This amazes me so much. I cannot believe that companies like Volkswagen basically ignore the EV market (except some half-assed E-Golf or something). I mean even if it really turns out to be fad - which I don't believe - don't they want to hedge their bets a little bit? Has nobody there ever heard of companies like Nokia, Blackberry, etc.?
This seems beyond out-of-touch. There are plenty of good reasons. Cost, size, and the fact that you might need a car now and can't actually buy a Model 3 yet would be chief among them.
It seems like a pretty great car if you're in its particular market though.
> It's just crazy to see them beat the competition so badly.
They have not made a single dollar of profit. Yes, it's an incredibly successful and impressive technology demonstration, but production at the scale that is now required is completely different from the development stage.
One example: regular manufacturers are only able to keep their high production numbers because they are able to compensate for hiccups in the supply chain for one model by having evolved to be able to switch a factory to another model in a very short timeframe.
A monoculture like Tesla (only model 3 in significant numbers) prevents this.
This quote is not very useful as an indicator of the future. Not everything that starts ignored will be laughed at. Not everything that is laughed at will be fought. Not everything that is fought will win. It's not even the majority of things that follow that path.
[+] [-] doctorcroc|10 years ago|reply
Creating an affordable EV at mass consumer scale is a much harder problem than creating a luxury EV at modest volume. However, if there was anyone I would bet on making this work and building an amazing car, it would be Elon Musk and team.
[+] [-] dionidium|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] trymas|10 years ago|reply
IMHO, one of the biggest problems from the tech side (I know that there are many hard problems, but this concerns me the most) is battery manufacturing.
They already have built the gigafactory which produces (or will produce) more batteries (or the power they produce) than the rest factories in the world.
But battery technology must have a breakthrough and probably sooner than most of us think. Currently known lithium reserves will 'support global demand until 2100' (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium#Reserves). Also, very efficient battery recycling and reuse must be further developed.
I hope that in 100 years, we'll discover and develop battery technology which is affordable, ecological (will not deplete Earth's recourses completely), efficient (e.g. power to weight ratio), etc. I know that there is development going for this, but I think it will be a long time until new battery tech will be in our home.
[+] [-] agumonkey|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] gchokov|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] harwoodleon|10 years ago|reply
I personally applaud his bravery, changing the established order is hard and carries great risk.
He is the real consortium of products and can shift money between these industries at will.
The risk here for all of his companies is that he is building a house of cards, one company collapse could bring it all down.
Or if they all succeed, he may become one of he most powerful entrepreneurs in history.
Which is his real 'secret plan'
[+] [-] mabbo|10 years ago|reply
It's not simply that he's a great entrepreneur, it's that his goals seem to be slightly different from others. Every business owner wants to make a lot of money, but Musk has decided to do that via pushing humanity into a Sci-fi future as soon as possible.
[+] [-] phaedryx|10 years ago|reply
Tesla - energy storage and AI assisted vehicle research
And then there is the miscellaneous stuff like this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Musk_electric_jet
It's obvious that his real 'secret plan' is an ironman suit.
[+] [-] jsli|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] erikpukinskis|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] madads|10 years ago|reply
"Build sports car.
Use that money to build an affordable car.
Use that money to build an even more affordable car.
While doing above, also provide zero emission electric power generation options.
Don't tell anyone."
[+] [-] agumonkey|10 years ago|reply
'if you want to have EV, all you have to do is buy the best cars we just made' kind of.
[+] [-] jakobegger|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] huuu|10 years ago|reply
Some people are skeptical about electric cars because the estimate life span of a battery is around eight years. But reading the article above (and others) you can see the batteries are not an issue anymore.
I was also a little skeptical about electric cars but I think the absolute pros are:
But I still got one issue with a lot of those environment friendly solutions. Because why would you use a lot of energy for sensors, insane mode, automatic doors, displays, computers, and so on? I know you need some of them but in the end environment friendly means: using less energy (in any form).[+] [-] Yaggo|10 years ago|reply
Signals electronics (displays, sensors, etc) use so little energy compared to power electronics (the drivetrain system) that it doesn't really matter.
[+] [-] jsli|10 years ago|reply
Is it? I thought it meant no harm to the environment. If the charging station is powered by solar energy, I don't see how using the otherwise wasted energy wrong.
[+] [-] glaberficken|10 years ago|reply
EVs will still generate a fair amount of noise pollution. There will be important improvements for city quality of life, mostly in reductions in the sub 35kmh acceleration/deceleration moments. But for highway speeds the reductions will not be that big.
Check this interesting wikipedia article for reference. Linking to the part that lists the basic variables that affect Roadway Noise: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roadway_noise#Description_of_b...
[+] [-] JayHost|10 years ago|reply
It's just crazy to see them beat the competition so badly.
I remember seeing the concept car for the Chevy Volt a few years ago and thinking how cool it was.
Then they released it and made it aerodynamic and thus BORING.
It's pretty nuts this car is 35k and the list of advantages to disadvantages can be summed as.
There's no reason to buy any other car.
[+] [-] ZeroGravitas|10 years ago|reply
There's a video talk on youtube by one of the original Tesla co-founders, Marc Tarpenning:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hf15nMnayXk
and his take on it (in amongst lots of other cool info), learned from later consulting for those same companies, was that the car companies outsourced everything but the engine. Then tesla came along, bought all the standard parts (windscreen wipers etc.) from these third party companies, and have no need for ICE engines.
So now you have people, who built their entire corporate status hierarchy around ICE engine experience, trying to start afresh.
[+] [-] Hermel|10 years ago|reply
The BMW electric cars (i3 and i8) are quite successful, beating Tesla sales-wise in Germany and selling half as many world-wide.
The great weakness of the Tesla S in the German market ist the German autobahn, where it runs out of energy very quickly (after an hour or so for aggressive drivers). The Tesla S is not designed for sustained high speeds.
[+] [-] tajen|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] _fizz_buzz_|10 years ago|reply
This amazes me so much. I cannot believe that companies like Volkswagen basically ignore the EV market (except some half-assed E-Golf or something). I mean even if it really turns out to be fad - which I don't believe - don't they want to hedge their bets a little bit? Has nobody there ever heard of companies like Nokia, Blackberry, etc.?
[+] [-] kelseyfrancis|10 years ago|reply
This seems beyond out-of-touch. There are plenty of good reasons. Cost, size, and the fact that you might need a car now and can't actually buy a Model 3 yet would be chief among them.
It seems like a pretty great car if you're in its particular market though.
[+] [-] _pmf_|10 years ago|reply
They have not made a single dollar of profit. Yes, it's an incredibly successful and impressive technology demonstration, but production at the scale that is now required is completely different from the development stage.
One example: regular manufacturers are only able to keep their high production numbers because they are able to compensate for hiccups in the supply chain for one model by having evolved to be able to switch a factory to another model in a very short timeframe. A monoculture like Tesla (only model 3 in significant numbers) prevents this.
[+] [-] ripitrust|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] westoque|10 years ago|reply
Use that money to build an affordable car
Use that money to build an even more affordable car
---
He's definitely a visionary. It's amazing how he followed up his plans to the dot.
[+] [-] jamisteven|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] rgawdzik|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Fluid_Mechanics|10 years ago|reply
-Mahatma Gandhi
http://www.snopes.com/first-they-ignore-you/
[+] [-] kybernetikos|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Cruisedealer|10 years ago|reply
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