Seems like an economics problem. The airplanes are full. The airlines are making lots of money. There aren't enough pilots. Hmm.... Perhaps pay them more?
That's only half of the equation. They can't get more pilots by paying more, because the requirements to become a pilot are so arduous. According to the article, trainee pilots have to pony up ~$150k in training costs, as well as spend many years working in scarce non-commercial-carrier jobs. So in part, the solution would be to create more non-commercial-carrier pilot jobs, and/or for airlines to start sponsoring trainee pilots to make it more attractive (or even possible) for them to get qualified.
Careful: don't apply that thinking to the "engineering shortage" or you'll never hear the end of it on HN. Engineers live in magicland, and in magicland, supply curves don't exist. People should work for passion and $60k, and if you don't, you're not a real engineer.
As someone would have loved to become a pilot, but went into another industry because I wanted to be able to feed my family, the airlines have no one to blame but themselves. The pay for regional pilots is insultingly low.
I don't think pilots qualify for H-1B but perhaps the US gov't could come up with a scheme to allow experienced foreign pilots to come to the US and get trained and certified at the airlines' expense.
Piloting is bellweather profession for many other jobs vulnerable to automation. Is the debate about visa programs or universal basic income when all these jobs are gone?
A combination of pay, educational requirements, and job security holds people back from many professions that they are motivated to perform. But I don't know that there is a solution that government can provide alone. We all need to participate in creating work, security, education.
There are still great dreams to dream and jobs to have. I hope your current industry is also fulfilling.
Is it an industry that can get away with relatively low pay and bad hours, because it offsets those by preying on the stereotypical fantasies of young boys "I want to be a pilot when I grow up", thus making it difficult to attract "normal" career minded individuals?
Its a common trend when I see an article about a profession that is having trouble to find enough people to recruit. Nurse, midwifes, carpenters, preschool teachers, dentists, plumbers, and so many more professions only recruit from one half of the population, and has thus problems when demand fluctuate.
1. The lack of pilot problem affects only regional carriers but not national airlines level yet.
2. Regional carriers can't afford to increase pilot salaries because national airlines are stingy.
This problem will begin to resolve, when the lack of pilot issue works up into the national airlines level. Eventually national airlines will be out of pilots, and they will be forced to either raise pilot salaries or institute training programs, or provide more favourable deals to regional airlines.
The problem initially started by passing of the bill in 2009 increasing the number of hours First Officers require by 5 times.
Since it takes a decade or more to train a pilot to that level, it may take a decade or more for the issue to percolate into the national airlines level.
By 2019, national airlines will be feeling the pinch in pilots and be forced to act. As they ramp up salaries, or provide more favourable deals to regional carriers, or implement trainee programs that train new recruits from from the ground up, or fully subsidising they training, the number of pilots entering flight schools will increase, or automating pilots away entirely.
By 2029, due to the previous ten years of work national airlines had done to attract pilots, or reduce dependency on them using automation, the issue of a lack of pilots will be resolved.
The article says most flying is automated these days. I can see the need for a human in the loop for special conditions. However, humans do make errors, and sometimes act maliciously.
How far are we, do you think, from self-flying planes?
Despite the silly comments in this thread, we're so far away from drone airliners that the question is in the realm of science fiction because of human judgment:
- airports and terminal areas are very busy
- en route diversions can happen anytime due to weather observed in flight
- airports like SFO can be fogged in most any day.
Military drones aren't being landed in busy urban areas.
I don't think we are ever going to get them, frankly. Or at least not passenger planes. Machines do break down, no matter how many redundant systems you put in. You want to always have someone on board who can help, even if the plane flies by itself 100% of the time during normal operation. Unless of course, that's what you meant. I mean that planes will always have to have someone familiar with flying on board, even if that person is not doing anything most of the time.
As one conspiracy theory, low pilot pay could be the industry's way of forcing the issue, given the psychological barriers to completely automated flights. Additionally, partial automation leads to lots of boredom for pilots, which could detract from rather than improve safety (full automation avoids that problem).
We should see it happen in our lifetimes, anyways.
Seeing as autopilot gets disengaged when a problem is detected (inconsistent airspeed measurements from different sensors, for example) and control handed over to a human ... a fair way off I would wager.
Well technology helped to eliminate the flight engineer role on modern planes. Technology could eliminate the need for a co-pilot, but the problem here is the lack of trust of having a single human in the loop. Plus the additional issues that others have mentioned e.g. pilot suicide, etc.
a long way, as there are many unpredictable unforeseen combinations of events in the sky. A much more likely scenario is single pilot commercial flights, especially for regionals, effectively doubling pilot capacity.
[+] [-] mathattack|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] taneq|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] x0x0|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] atemerev|10 years ago|reply
The solution is obvious, of course. Machines can drive cars, hence, they will be also flying planes soon.
Pilots complaining their jobs are routine? Good. All routine jobs are to be eliminated, the sooner the better.
[+] [-] th0ma5|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] bayesian_horse|10 years ago|reply
The airlines are also afraid to put pilots in a situation of power at the negotiation table.
[+] [-] noja|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] unknown|10 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] wannabepilot|10 years ago|reply
I don't think pilots qualify for H-1B but perhaps the US gov't could come up with a scheme to allow experienced foreign pilots to come to the US and get trained and certified at the airlines' expense.
[+] [-] hendler|10 years ago|reply
A combination of pay, educational requirements, and job security holds people back from many professions that they are motivated to perform. But I don't know that there is a solution that government can provide alone. We all need to participate in creating work, security, education.
There are still great dreams to dream and jobs to have. I hope your current industry is also fulfilling.
[+] [-] klagermkii|10 years ago|reply
http://www.womenofaviationweek.org/five-decades-of-women-pil...
Is it an industry that can get away with relatively low pay and bad hours, because it offsets those by preying on the stereotypical fantasies of young boys "I want to be a pilot when I grow up", thus making it difficult to attract "normal" career minded individuals?
[+] [-] belorn|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] sdrterterw|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] noja|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] meric|10 years ago|reply
2. Regional carriers can't afford to increase pilot salaries because national airlines are stingy.
This problem will begin to resolve, when the lack of pilot issue works up into the national airlines level. Eventually national airlines will be out of pilots, and they will be forced to either raise pilot salaries or institute training programs, or provide more favourable deals to regional airlines.
The problem initially started by passing of the bill in 2009 increasing the number of hours First Officers require by 5 times.
Since it takes a decade or more to train a pilot to that level, it may take a decade or more for the issue to percolate into the national airlines level.
By 2019, national airlines will be feeling the pinch in pilots and be forced to act. As they ramp up salaries, or provide more favourable deals to regional carriers, or implement trainee programs that train new recruits from from the ground up, or fully subsidising they training, the number of pilots entering flight schools will increase, or automating pilots away entirely.
By 2029, due to the previous ten years of work national airlines had done to attract pilots, or reduce dependency on them using automation, the issue of a lack of pilots will be resolved.
[+] [-] guard-of-terra|10 years ago|reply
Comet entered service in 52 and Jumbo Jet flew commercially in 1970. Compare this with 2009-2029 range you proposed.
The pace of change in "modern" world is depressing and that we are content with it is depressing even more. How about next year?
Also note how fast you can break something. Pass an act in a month, fix its fallout in 20 years.
[+] [-] Hyperized|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] nvader|10 years ago|reply
How far are we, do you think, from self-flying planes?
[+] [-] throwaway_exer|10 years ago|reply
- airports and terminal areas are very busy
- en route diversions can happen anytime due to weather observed in flight
- airports like SFO can be fogged in most any day.
Military drones aren't being landed in busy urban areas.
[+] [-] gambiting|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] nvader|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] seanmcdirmid|10 years ago|reply
As one conspiracy theory, low pilot pay could be the industry's way of forcing the issue, given the psychological barriers to completely automated flights. Additionally, partial automation leads to lots of boredom for pilots, which could detract from rather than improve safety (full automation avoids that problem).
We should see it happen in our lifetimes, anyways.
[+] [-] philjohn|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Saad_M|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] davidwihl|10 years ago|reply