Sounds like a great way to get nabbed by a CIA snatch-and-grab operation. Even if his FSB protection plans the field trip and accompanies him, it's still a huge risk. It also provides an ample opportunity for Russia to divest themselves of Snowden should they wish, making the West look bad in the process.
Norway's NIS maintains a friendly relationship with U.S. intelligence.[0] NSA documents leaked by Snowden refer to Norway as a "Tier B" country.[1] The only thing higher is "Tier A"—Five Eyes member nations.
Norway does at lot of intelligence gathering around Svalbard/North Atlantic against the russians due to the large fleet base at Murmansk. The ships used is typicly equipped in the US before entering service.
The whole process is probably an attempt to get Norway to grant him asylum by the backdoor. I can see the rationale but I don't think I'd trust any place where the executive isn't fully committed.
there was at one time talk of expanding the 'five eyes' community to seven or nine, countries such as norway, denmark and germany would have been the top candidates for inclusion.
Whatever we can speculate about the ifs and hows of this situation, let's keep in mind that incredibly courageous people like Snowden have to endure what they endure because people like us, citizens, don't seem to stand up to corrupt governments anymore.
From a recent interview with Snowden by Reason magazine
I mean again, this sort of political direction gets
beyond my expertise so I don’t like to talk too much
about. You know you brought up an interesting point
there about Russia that I think is actually important
to contextualize. There’s a lot of fair criticism
that’s like, “Hey, this guy’s in Russia.”
It’s important to understand that I never intended to
end up in Russia. Originally I was hoping to get to
Iceland. After that, Latin America when Iceland fell
through. But the State Department cancelled my
passport, trapping me in Russia when I was initially on
the move, as soon as they heard I was in the air.
Despite the fact that I’ve asked several times, they’ve
refused to reinstate it, which is quite interesting.
The United States of course criticizes me for being in
Russia but at the same time they won’t let me leave.
I think if the US can have a President's plane redirected, forced to land, and searched, with that President on it, they wouldn't have much trouble getting Norway to look the other way for a few minutes. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Snowden#Morales_plane_i...
Sadly, I have to agree. In Germany, some people demand that the government should offer Snowden asylum, but while I would appreciate the gesture (not that the government would seriously consider doing something like that), if I were in Snowden's place, I would not set foot in a country that is so deeply in bed with the USA (not to mention the US military bases in Germany).
Which does not leave many places where Snowden could go and be safe.
The forced landing of Morales' plane was probably one of those moments I felt most ashamed to be a European. It was an absolute disgrace and nobody seemed to care.
I assume Norways laws work similar to Swedens, meaning there can be no guarantees of non-extradiction (because preempting a legal decision usinga a political one is illegal, and the extradiction would be handled only when it is requested - which can only be done once he is actually in norway).
So the same thing might happen to Snowden that happened to Assange - no guarantees up front.
The best they can do in that case is make broader statements that e.g. "we do not extradite anyone who faces political charges and/or risks the death penalty". It's safe to say Snowden fits into both categories.
How hard does the US government want him back, now that the cat is out of the bag? Obviously, the US don't want to appear "soft" on the matter - the interest of the administration is to avoid future whistleblowers by having a tough posture.
But Snowden has a pretty massive following worldwide, on a scale that Assange and Chelsea Manning don't have. Wouldn't a trial be a terrible PR move, on top of raising embarrassing question about the activities of the NSA and their legality?
At this stage I'm certain one of three things will happen if the US can get a hold of him:
1) he will be secretly disappeared in a way that gives the US plausible deniability.
2) he will die in an "accident".
3) he will be taken to trial and put away for life, most likely in solitary confinement ("for his own safety").
It is obvious nobody actually cares about the activities of the NSA and their legality at this point. There has been some bad PR around it but all in all the American public hasn't revolted and the allies are still under control and don't want to risk it. Also, to this day, Snowden is routinely referred to as "a leaker" and US politicians' calls for his death and branding him as a traitor have been met with nary any criticism.
At this point it's no longer about what secrets Snowden can reveal, it's just about neutralizing what the US government (as in: politicians and state officials) considers a threat to its interests (as in: their interests, not those of the nation). And to make an example of him, obviously.
Agree. With Assange I think it's even more obviously the case that it wouldn't actually be in US government interests to bring him to trial in the US. He's a skilled communicator, has a similar and even more fanatically loyal following, is a civilian holding the passport of of an allied state, and it's by no means certain what they could charge him with never mind how they could secure a conviction that looked like justice to the average voter.
I bet security chiefs were besides themselves with glee when allegations completely unrelated to his day-to-day activities emerged, and even more delighted when his response was to refuse to defend himself against the allegation on the basis that it must be part of a coordinated dirty tricks campaign against his freedom of speech.
It's great to get the chilling effect on those most likely to be motivated to expose government wrongdoing without actually having to do anything, never mind do something that the average voter might think is going too far.
Although technically Russia and Norway share a land border, you would have to drive thousands of miles through extremely remote arctic areas, where the major routes are single-lane roads and the nearest settlements may be hours apart. If one is worried about underhanded tactics by the US, this seems quite a dangerous way to go.
Even if Snowden gets this assurance from the Norweigans, how can he be sure they're not lying?
E.g. the US tells Norway they should say "yeah sure we won't arrest and extradite you," then go back on their word and arrest him as soon as he enters the country. The US makes some under-the-table bribes or threats to be sure Norway goes along with this scheme.
Something along the lines of "It sure would be a shame if we tanked your economy by making it illegal for US businesses to operate in Norway...those juicy Internet taps Snowden claims we have, well we can't confirm or deny them, but we might or might not know certain delicate things that were said in private by Norwegian politicians, and we might or might not know about certain financial relationships between certain wealthy Norweigans and high-ranking politicians, and it sure would be a shame if the things we might or might not know became public and had unfortunate consequences for your party's political position...now let's talk about how you're going to handle this Snowden situation..."
Also as other posters have pointed out, the US could simply send a CIA team to kidnap or murder him. Norwegian counterintelligence is presumably a lot weaker than Russia's, and their politicians presumably a lot more afraid of the US, so it's probably a lot less risky for the US to run an op like that in Norway than in Russia.
Remember Anders Behring? He was sentenced for 21 years for his terrorist attack in 2011. I find it hard to believe a country that has the most humane prison system in the world would extradite Snowden back the the US...
It's Anders Behring Breivik. Also, Norway has an extradition treaty with the United States since the 80s. Not to be harsh (really), but it doesn't matter what you believe.
Edit: Breivik will never be released btw. Also, court found yesterday that elements of his incarceration violated Article 3 of the European Convention on Human Rights.
The Norwegian government is too entangled with US interests, due to our defense doctrine and role in NATO ("hold out for 24 hours while the rest of NATO mobilizes"). Although many Norwegian politicians probably have personal sympathies for Snowden's legal situation, it's very doubtful that anything short of a Supreme Court ruling would prevent Norwegian authorities of cooperating with the US when it comes to arresting and extraditing Snowden.
He is de facto sentenced to life in prison. And Snowden is a US citizen and will be extradited. Unless the this case the thread is about gives him a win.
Well, why do you think? He's stuck in Russia because of his NSA whistleblowing, and Putin isn't exactly the most tolerant about criticism. He's playing the cards he's dealt the best he can.
But why don't you do something? Is Snowden the only person responsible for criticizing all the wrongs in the world? He's already done, and sacrificed, way more than the vast majority of people. Why is that still not good enough? What have you done and sacrificed for others?
Many people are already highly critical of Russia (see, for example, yourself); what could Snowden add to that, and would it be worth the cost?
Before Snowden's leaks, those critical of the NSA could be shrugged off as paranoid tinfoil hats; Snowden not only brought that criticism into the public light, but provided hard evidence to back it up. That was a great contribution, and one he thought was worth the (also great) cost.
So many threats along the way: 1) kidnap before reaching the airport 2) not be allowed to leave Russia 3) be intercepted between Russia and Norway 4) be caught in Norway after arrive 5) be caught in Norway before departure back to Russia 6) be caught during travel back to Russia 7) not be allowed to go back to Russia at all 8) be caught after arrive in Russia 9) be caught before going back to his apartment 10) be caught soon after arriving on his apartment 11) be caught later on
Numbers 1 and 9 through 11 are not really relevant for this discussion. Or is there evidence that he is restricted to his apartment (either by his own choice or by force)?
One thing yo remember is Norway isnt partnof NATO, which makes quite a bit of difference in this. Still not sure what the end result will be, but good luck to Snowden and I hope Norway does it. If only so I dont have to hear any more ignoramouses talk about how Snowden went to Russia on purpose.
Sorry everyone, I was wrong about that as is pretty obvious. I was remembering the story about google building a datacenter in Finland confused it with Norway.
The US government isn't going to kidnap Edward Snowden at any point. He's too high profile and the press would eventually find out. And I don't think Putin will let him leave Russia unless it would hurt the US in some way. If Snowden really wants to leave, he can probably leave. But the Russian government won't make it easy for him.
Snowden should just come home and face the music. He'll probably get a pro bono all-star legal team and have 50/50 odds with a jury of his peers. With sufficient lawyering he could probably get away with five years at worst, and then go back to life in America as even more of a hero.
[+] [-] rl3|10 years ago|reply
Norway's NIS maintains a friendly relationship with U.S. intelligence.[0] NSA documents leaked by Snowden refer to Norway as a "Tier B" country.[1] The only thing higher is "Tier A"—Five Eyes member nations.
[0] http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-KW_21XnezyY/Usdezt9SifI/AAAAAAAABH...
[1] http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-NRWNh0OgZwQ/UrEBhQltzrI/AAAAAAAABF...
[+] [-] Ueland|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] toyg|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] walrus01|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] benevol|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] iamthepieman|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] a3n|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] krylon|10 years ago|reply
Which does not leave many places where Snowden could go and be safe.
[+] [-] pluma|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] toyg|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] majewsky|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] alkonaut|10 years ago|reply
So the same thing might happen to Snowden that happened to Assange - no guarantees up front.
The best they can do in that case is make broader statements that e.g. "we do not extradite anyone who faces political charges and/or risks the death penalty". It's safe to say Snowden fits into both categories.
[+] [-] _0w8t|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] kiproping|10 years ago|reply
Imagine if all countries in the world were stooges of America. Scary.
[+] [-] mercurial|10 years ago|reply
But Snowden has a pretty massive following worldwide, on a scale that Assange and Chelsea Manning don't have. Wouldn't a trial be a terrible PR move, on top of raising embarrassing question about the activities of the NSA and their legality?
[+] [-] pluma|10 years ago|reply
1) he will be secretly disappeared in a way that gives the US plausible deniability.
2) he will die in an "accident".
3) he will be taken to trial and put away for life, most likely in solitary confinement ("for his own safety").
It is obvious nobody actually cares about the activities of the NSA and their legality at this point. There has been some bad PR around it but all in all the American public hasn't revolted and the allies are still under control and don't want to risk it. Also, to this day, Snowden is routinely referred to as "a leaker" and US politicians' calls for his death and branding him as a traitor have been met with nary any criticism.
At this point it's no longer about what secrets Snowden can reveal, it's just about neutralizing what the US government (as in: politicians and state officials) considers a threat to its interests (as in: their interests, not those of the nation). And to make an example of him, obviously.
[+] [-] notahacker|10 years ago|reply
It's great to get the chilling effect on those most likely to be motivated to expose government wrongdoing without actually having to do anything, never mind do something that the average voter might think is going too far.
[+] [-] portlander12345|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] kmonsen|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] didbdohd|10 years ago|reply
He also needs assurance the flight between Russia and Norway won't be grounded or redirected on route.
[+] [-] RijilV|10 years ago|reply
What isn't clear to me from the article is why he'd risk it for an award from a group of writers who have branches in Russia..
[+] [-] M2Ys4U|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] eric_h|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] csense|10 years ago|reply
E.g. the US tells Norway they should say "yeah sure we won't arrest and extradite you," then go back on their word and arrest him as soon as he enters the country. The US makes some under-the-table bribes or threats to be sure Norway goes along with this scheme.
Something along the lines of "It sure would be a shame if we tanked your economy by making it illegal for US businesses to operate in Norway...those juicy Internet taps Snowden claims we have, well we can't confirm or deny them, but we might or might not know certain delicate things that were said in private by Norwegian politicians, and we might or might not know about certain financial relationships between certain wealthy Norweigans and high-ranking politicians, and it sure would be a shame if the things we might or might not know became public and had unfortunate consequences for your party's political position...now let's talk about how you're going to handle this Snowden situation..."
Also as other posters have pointed out, the US could simply send a CIA team to kidnap or murder him. Norwegian counterintelligence is presumably a lot weaker than Russia's, and their politicians presumably a lot more afraid of the US, so it's probably a lot less risky for the US to run an op like that in Norway than in Russia.
[+] [-] dschweig|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] c_c_c|10 years ago|reply
Edit: Breivik will never be released btw. Also, court found yesterday that elements of his incarceration violated Article 3 of the European Convention on Human Rights.
[+] [-] marvin|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] nickkthequick|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Ueland|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] cat-dev-null|10 years ago|reply
US fighters and/or ships could _arguably_ intercept a civilian aircraft in international waters and force landing in another country.
[+] [-] PlzSnow|10 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] toyg|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] dang|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] mcv|10 years ago|reply
But why don't you do something? Is Snowden the only person responsible for criticizing all the wrongs in the world? He's already done, and sacrificed, way more than the vast majority of people. Why is that still not good enough? What have you done and sacrificed for others?
[+] [-] chriswarbo|10 years ago|reply
Before Snowden's leaks, those critical of the NSA could be shrugged off as paranoid tinfoil hats; Snowden not only brought that criticism into the public light, but provided hard evidence to back it up. That was a great contribution, and one he thought was worth the (also great) cost.
[+] [-] legulere|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Roritharr|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] hartpuff|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] rantanplan|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] celticninja|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] rawTruthHurts|10 years ago|reply
Still, blind guess, it's safe to say that he is more corageous than you.
[+] [-] PlzSnow|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] andersonmvd|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] majewsky|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] sundvor|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] arca_vorago|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] progre|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] arca_vorago|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] drjesusphd|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] karmacondon|10 years ago|reply
Snowden should just come home and face the music. He'll probably get a pro bono all-star legal team and have 50/50 odds with a jury of his peers. With sufficient lawyering he could probably get away with five years at worst, and then go back to life in America as even more of a hero.