This article is idiotic if the main reason for cancelling the game is actually some "global spread" of Zika.
Rio is not some city in the middle of nowhere from which no flights are coming in and out of, and now suddenly this massive international influx of visitors will come in -- it is a world-class city, a financial hub of the largest country in the continent.
If we take London 2012 as a benchmark, estimates there are that the olympics yielded a 13% increase in foreign visitors from the previous summer. And that is London, a place where access from other destinations is cheaper, the infrastructure better, and a lot more appealing to U.S. visitors (due to some of the things cited above). It is completely reasonable to expect that the delta in Rio should be roughly the same, if not smaller.
The fact is that the"impact" on travel due to the Olympics will be negligible in a city like Rio -- and the economic impact is CERTAINLY negative, unless you are drinking the Kool-Aid of organizers.
I'm fine with cancelling the games, but claiming that not doing so will lead to a much riskier global health situation than the one we are already living is hogwash.
Yes, Rio sees many visitors regularly. What Rio does not see is an influx of visitors from nearly every country on earth. It's that spread that is the problem. The financial impact on hosting the games is already negative for host cities. That's no longer debatable without ignoring fact. Your argument that all the experts studying the Zika epidemic and drawing the ever more cemented conclusion that this is a very serious problem are wrong is what is hogwash.
I would expect the differences you mention to result in a higher delta for Rio, they would contribute to a lower base rate of travel making the event travel relatively larger.
This is the claim:
Scientists can disagree on how much the mass migration of 500,000 foreigners will accelerate the virus’s global spread and make the pandemic worse—but none can possibly argue that it will slow it down or make things better.
It is only idiotic if you ignore the emotional response. The author is very afraid of this strain of Zika, they recognize that world wide distribution is inevitable but they seek to address their fear by advocating an action they know "could" be taken, to cancel the games.
Brazilian here, Ive been in Rio a couple of times (living in Sao Paulo right now, who also has problems w/Aedes Aegypti):
Come to Brazil if you wish, but take care. The Aedes Aegypti mosquito is all around and can spread not only Zika, but Chikungunya (kindly named "chico cunha") and Dengue.
Make good use of insect repellent, watch your stuff when walking on beaches (don't forget robbers and thieves) and think twice about trusting someone.
As someone said before, every city in the world has its problems and brazilian cities have them also.
Personally, I will not go to Olympics just because hotel prices on Rio skyrocketed and are almost impractical.
It should be considered, dont know if it makes sense but the pros and cons should be weighed and respected international health organizations should weigh in.
Overall though, think given the fact the facilities have not been fully constructed, the Brazilian government is on the verge of collapse, and the risks of being a major disease vector is plausible...
I've thought this too. They pick some of the weirdest places to try to host this stuff. I guess they're trying to bring the areas up or something but if the place can't handle daily life what makes anyone think they can handle a big event like this?
> the Brazilian government is on the verge of collapse
Don't believe those news. The government will change today, nothing will collapse. There will be some roads closed (until the police gets there), and some brave discourses on the media, and that's all.
The government attempt a coup Monday - everybody just carried on.
Ever since the news of Zika causing microcephaly came up I have been wondering whether it's a net benefit to humanity/homeostasis if we were to exterminate Aedis Aegypti. Can Zika spread among humans already? It would seem like a huge risk to the future of humanity if this infectious disease interferes with reproduction.
What's the worst-case scenario for letting Aedis Aegypti live? Is it better than the worst-case scenario for exterminating the species?
Zika is a big threat to fetuses that are gestating while the mother is infected. After a woman gains immunity, there is little threat to any babies she might carry.
So it is a very serious concern at the moment, but it is not any sort of existential problem. It will likely not even be a medium term problem (there is early research towards vaccines).
I think the concern would be dominated by the side-effects of the method we use to perform the total extermination, rather than the side-effects of Aedis Aegypti being extinct.
I was wondering about whether this would happen. I am not enough of an expert to make a call on this either way of course, but if experts decided this was the right call would it even be possible to cancel/reschedule the Olympics? Imagine the financial impact on Rio.
It's pretty well known and well documented at this point that the host cities for olympic games see no financial benefit at all, and in fact they lose money. Most recently, look at the Sochi games, which cost $50+bn. There is a 0% chance that the games brought in that much money. The entities making money are the IOC and the broadcast companies, NBC being the primary. It would be sad if the games were cancelled, but at the risk of a global pandemic it's hard to see how people can argue in favor anymore.
I wonder if the medical community is also working with the state department, airlines and travel agencies to make sure people get a stern warning before they buy plane tickets to Brazil and an even sterner warning when they get back.
Considering the political forces that need to be involved in moving (or not) the games it seems foolish to not have a safety net if "please move the games" doesn't work.
The Ministry of Health in Brazil has been getting a new head of department every few months, depending on the backstage deals the president has had to make in order to keep her government in place. So no, I wouldn't count on any coordinated actions being spearheaded by the government. They are pretty busy running around like headless chickens, which means insisting in inneficient methods to eliminate the mosquito (e.g. fuming).
Some airlines have been allowing passengers to refund tickets to areas affected by Zika [1].
I think every decent travel agency should worry its customers that traveling to Brazil at this time is not a good idea.
Besides the health issues, Brazil is ousting its president today and most leftist parties and unions have vouched to stop the country with strikes, blockades and protests. You may get stuck in a 2-hour traffic jam on your way to the games.
Zika is already in Houston, Dallas and other Texas cities. I dont know if it is tourism that brought it here or not, but it has enough transmission vectors that its only a matter of time before its everywhere.
If you consider that the Olympics tourists are rich ones, that will spend most of their times in air conditioned environments, the risk is really very low.
Serious question: Has anyone seen an article or study about the microcephaly effects on pregnancy where the main population studied was not in brazil?
I have yet to see a study that links it to microcephaly for anyone who has not been in brazil for a long time.
I realize the mosquito isn't common, but brazil also does things like: "secretly spray tons and tons of pesticide on their populus", etc.
Given these are all correlative studies, i'd love to see something from a country where there aren't a ton of possible other variables.
(especially given zika has been around and even common forever and it's only now that this seems to be an issue)
You know, before the tourism economies of all of these other countries are completely destroyed.
The article linked in the original post refers to a retrospective analysis in French Polynesia (the source of the virus in Brazil) that found a huge increase in Zika-induced microcephaly there as well.
What? Are they planning a culling, on which they will blame Zika and the Olympics? Otherwise, this make zero sense.
Despite all the hype, Zika is not the end of the world. Most people who get it hardly notice and get over it in rather short order just as one gets over a cold.
Yes. It's quite commonly used in British English afaik.
You can say "This brought a twofold increase in clientele", "We saw a threefold weight increase in affected mammals". I've never seen it used passed "fourfold" though.
Come to Rio - watch the Olympians swim in the very dirty water they promised to clean but didn't! Catch zika, then fill out the police and insurance forms after you get robbed!
Seriously though, Rio is a very very dangerous place to visit even for brasileros, let alone tourists, and the zika and chinkungya virus outbreaks are not helping either.
It's kind of a shame that there is probably a solution to Zika sitting there waiting for regulatory approval in Oxitec's GM mosquitoes which were first successfully trialed in 2009. Maybe after another one or two million people have caught Zika they'll get around to using it.
I am mixed about this whole episode, at one level there is bias against developing countries. On the other end, Brazil did not do any favors for itself, with zika, political turmoil etc. But they did pull of a FIFA world cup, so I am a bit more optimistic.
[+] [-] ChicagoBoy11|10 years ago|reply
Rio is not some city in the middle of nowhere from which no flights are coming in and out of, and now suddenly this massive international influx of visitors will come in -- it is a world-class city, a financial hub of the largest country in the continent.
If we take London 2012 as a benchmark, estimates there are that the olympics yielded a 13% increase in foreign visitors from the previous summer. And that is London, a place where access from other destinations is cheaper, the infrastructure better, and a lot more appealing to U.S. visitors (due to some of the things cited above). It is completely reasonable to expect that the delta in Rio should be roughly the same, if not smaller.
The fact is that the"impact" on travel due to the Olympics will be negligible in a city like Rio -- and the economic impact is CERTAINLY negative, unless you are drinking the Kool-Aid of organizers.
I'm fine with cancelling the games, but claiming that not doing so will lead to a much riskier global health situation than the one we are already living is hogwash.
[+] [-] shaggy|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] illumen|10 years ago|reply
No, it's not the same.
[+] [-] maxerickson|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] HillaryBriss|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] bo1024|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] rubidium|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] komali2|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] samstave|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] ChuckMcM|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] ehmuidifici|10 years ago|reply
Come to Brazil if you wish, but take care. The Aedes Aegypti mosquito is all around and can spread not only Zika, but Chikungunya (kindly named "chico cunha") and Dengue.
Make good use of insect repellent, watch your stuff when walking on beaches (don't forget robbers and thieves) and think twice about trusting someone.
As someone said before, every city in the world has its problems and brazilian cities have them also.
Personally, I will not go to Olympics just because hotel prices on Rio skyrocketed and are almost impractical.
[+] [-] Chris2048|10 years ago|reply
At the same magnitude?
[+] [-] apalmer|10 years ago|reply
Overall though, think given the fact the facilities have not been fully constructed, the Brazilian government is on the verge of collapse, and the risks of being a major disease vector is plausible...
Should definitely consider delay or moving
[+] [-] zodPod|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] marcosdumay|10 years ago|reply
Don't believe those news. The government will change today, nothing will collapse. There will be some roads closed (until the police gets there), and some brave discourses on the media, and that's all.
The government attempt a coup Monday - everybody just carried on.
[+] [-] wyldfire|10 years ago|reply
What's the worst-case scenario for letting Aedis Aegypti live? Is it better than the worst-case scenario for exterminating the species?
[+] [-] maxerickson|10 years ago|reply
So it is a very serious concern at the moment, but it is not any sort of existential problem. It will likely not even be a medium term problem (there is early research towards vaccines).
[+] [-] cjbprime|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] bryanlarsen|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Tycho|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] bhouston|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] shaggy|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] mbreese|10 years ago|reply
Tough call...
[+] [-] cypherpunks01|10 years ago|reply
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Cancelled_Olympic_Gam...
[+] [-] unknown|10 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] giarc|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Kristine1975|10 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] dsfyu404ed|10 years ago|reply
Considering the political forces that need to be involved in moving (or not) the games it seems foolish to not have a safety net if "please move the games" doesn't work.
[+] [-] gtirloni|10 years ago|reply
Some airlines have been allowing passengers to refund tickets to areas affected by Zika [1].
I think every decent travel agency should worry its customers that traveling to Brazil at this time is not a good idea.
Besides the health issues, Brazil is ousting its president today and most leftist parties and unions have vouched to stop the country with strikes, blockades and protests. You may get stuck in a 2-hour traffic jam on your way to the games.
1 - http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/zika-virus-m...
[+] [-] S_A_P|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] unknown|10 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] neves|10 years ago|reply
The autumn in Rio is the coldest and driest in a long time http://g1.globo.com/rio-de-janeiro/noticia/2016/03/outono-no... When the Olympics arrive, the mosquito will be in their lowest population count.
If you consider that the Olympics tourists are rich ones, that will spend most of their times in air conditioned environments, the risk is really very low.
[+] [-] DannyBee|10 years ago|reply
I have yet to see a study that links it to microcephaly for anyone who has not been in brazil for a long time. I realize the mosquito isn't common, but brazil also does things like: "secretly spray tons and tons of pesticide on their populus", etc.
Given these are all correlative studies, i'd love to see something from a country where there aren't a ton of possible other variables.
(especially given zika has been around and even common forever and it's only now that this seems to be an issue)
You know, before the tourism economies of all of these other countries are completely destroyed.
[+] [-] rubidium|10 years ago|reply
It's the fat cats who don't want to move/postpone the Olympics most. They have the most to lose.
[+] [-] pge|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] mixmastamyk|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] transfire|10 years ago|reply
Despite all the hype, Zika is not the end of the world. Most people who get it hardly notice and get over it in rather short order just as one gets over a cold.
[+] [-] InglouriousG|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] davesque|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] jakub_g|10 years ago|reply
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/tenfold
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/twofold
[+] [-] xutopia|10 years ago|reply
You can say "This brought a twofold increase in clientele", "We saw a threefold weight increase in affected mammals". I've never seen it used passed "fourfold" though.
[+] [-] mc32|10 years ago|reply
At most they'll spray and fumigate the skeeters for the few weeks the activities take place and then go back to "normal".
[+] [-] ck2|10 years ago|reply
If so, could spread the world at lightning speed.
I think there is also concern for the athletes in that the water is absolutely filthy there.
[+] [-] askyourmother|10 years ago|reply
Watch it on TV, from far away.
[+] [-] tim333|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] sremani|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] kordless|10 years ago|reply
[+] [-] unknown|10 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] unknown|10 years ago|reply
[deleted]