[jeffcoat]

Not so stupid: Start with the phrase "Hoteling's rule" for a century of academic analysis of that question.

If you own an oil field, you have to balance a number of factors:

* How is the price of oil changing, relative to overall inflation? You mentioned this one.

But also,

* Are technological improvements (either increasing the total amount of extractable oil in the world, or outright oil replacements) going to dramatically lower the price if I wait too long?

* Is it still going to be my oil next year, or am I going to be first against the wall when the next revolution comes?

My (unsophisticated, outsider) opinion is that if you see oil-producing countries selling as quickly as they can, that's weak evidence that they're worried about the last two bullets.