[yarvin9]

Ha! I can assure you that by the time Urbit is ready to compete with Facebook, it'll be as easy to sign up for as Facebook. That's a necessary condition, not a sufficient one. It ain't happening any time soon, neither.

Metcalfe's law is an impossible problem in theory, but not necessarily in practice.

For instance, one way for a new system to get around Metcalfe's law is to steal the network effect of the existing network. This is the same principle as in Tantek Celik's POSSE (publish on self, syndicate elsewhere) design, but a little more general.

Concretely, it's very hard to compete with Facebook, but relatively easy to let a user control their own Facebook account from their own general-purpose computer. Especially if you can get them to bring their own API key ("BYOK").

From controlling your own data in Facebook, you may move to mirroring it; from one-way mirroring, to two-way sync; from two-way sync, to discarding the silo. So it's not even necessary to replace Facebook in one impossible step; you can build a stepladder for users to migrate off gradually.

Of course, that this is possible doesn't make it easy!