[wyman]

For a new grad several years ago comparing offers between say Uber, Airbnb, Stripe, Google, and Facebook, the mid-stage private companies like Uber/Airbnb/Stripe are likely paying $100K, while Google/Facebook offer barely more at $120K or so.

However, the Google/FB overs likely include RSUs valued at $400K that vest over 4 years, while the private companies offer options (at the time) "worth" (at current company valuation) ~$300-400K, with incredibly low strike prices since the 409a can be much lower than the preferred valuation. It really depends on how well the company has down, but since the last 3 years those private companies have doubled to 8x in value (see Uber), and thus the Uber employee's shares would be worth $2.4M-$3.2M. Google also appreciated (+50%) making the RSUs worth $600K, but still has not appreciated as much. Of course, this is just one example, picking the most successful companies, but it is illustrative of the general principle: if 20-30% of the time you can get on a rocketship, you can be +EV but with higher variance.

[mikeash]

Is 20-30% realistic? I'd have thought it would be more like 10% or less.