[brc]

Your second point is incorrect. There are plenty of trade agreements without free movement included. Indeed the EC (forerunner to the EU) was precisely free trade without free movement.

The first point is debatable. There is a lot of political power to be gained by the person who pulls the trigger if they do it succesfully. I think it is 50:50, but there is a lot of upside to be had if it is done well and with plenty of stability and adjustment time. Anyone in the Conservative party who refuses to pull the trigger will be subject to endless criticism and undermining from the significant base of people that wants it done.