I believe the goal here is an electric car with autonomous features, branded similar to the S-Class or the new E-Class (instead of going all the way like Tesla's AutoPilot).
What's the point of that? Why would Apple want to make such a huge bet on an industry they have never been in just to create an incremental improvement on cars already billed as luxury items?
If they proceed with the Apple Car, I would imagine it would be a disrupting concept that Apple would be uniquely prepared to handle.
I think it has to do with the car industry being the best out of a bunch of bad options. You simply don't need the kind of liquidity Apple has on hand to run a business with the current Product Lineup Apple has on offer. Sure they could do more here and there, but compared to the insane amounts of capital Apple has, any effort in the computing/telco space is just pocketchange.
If Apple ventures out of computing and into areas that need that kind of capital to be feasible, you start comparing lots of medium to low margin industries, the car industry being one of them.
When you look at Apple's brand, company focus and in-house experience, there's only a few industries where diving into could make it a relatively safe bet for the capital involved.
Cars make sense because they are complex technology, already very brand and UX focused in their usual sales processes, and there is a lot of money to be made in the optimization of the supply chain, all things which Apple is second to none.
There were surely other options and I imagine are still being discussed in Cupertino.
Large Scale Urban Development seems like a similar viable candidate, but the salescycles and product lifecycles are probably too much at odds with the rest of Apples business. But the prospect of an build to order Apple Campus must seem quite exciting to some people that are having a blast building the new spaceship.
Among other industries, i could also imagine the Hotel industry being on their marks for similar reasons.
My guess is they will rethink what a "car" fundamentally is all about. They'll create a vehicle that has new features that play to their strengths, even if the "car-ness" isn't a big improvement on existing models in the market.
Back when the iPhone first came out a lot of people dismissed it because it wasn't a very good phone - the audio quality and reception tended to be worse than a good Nokia. Who cares if it has all these extra whiz-bang features like a touch screen and a web browser if it's not a very good phone, the thinking went. A lot of people didn't appreciate that Apple was creating a communication and information retrieval device, and not just a traditional phone with some extra features.
I suspect Apple will create a car that provides a great experience for people getting from point A to point B. It will probably not be a great car to drive. But it will probably be an awesome car for passengers. My guess is that they are betting that there will be more passengers relative to drivers over the next decade or two, and that passengers will, in a perhaps indirect way, become a bigger force in car buying decisions than they have been in the past.
So, by the metrics traditionally used to compare cars it will probably be only an incremental improvement over existing models - or it might even be a step backwards. But by the metrics that we'll use to evaluate cars in ten or fifteen years it will be an amazing improvement.
"There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance. It's a $500 subsidized item. They may make a lot of money. But if you actually take a look at the 1.3 billion phones that get sold, I'd prefer to have our software in 60% or 70% or 80% of them, than I would to have 2% or 3%, which is what Apple might get."
Palm CEO Ed Colligan in 2006:
"We’ve learned and struggled for a few years here figuring out how to make a decent phone," he said. "[Apple is] not going to just figure this out. They’re not going to just walk in."
Apple could release a car that has fewer features than a Tesla or Mercedes, and if it was designed very well, with seamless integration with the iPhone, lots of people would buy it.
Bringing something truly disruptive to the automobile market could be impossible. There's so many companies actively working with cars that maybe there is no room for disruption.
Think about the smart watch market. Many other companies are iterating their products in public. Apple couldn't really surprise the customers with their product. Maybe they build a better product than others, but it was no iPad (which took the whole market by surprise).
> If they proceed with the Apple Car, I would imagine it would be a disrupting concept that Apple would be uniquely prepared to handle.
That's what people thought about the Apple Watch as well, but it seems these days Apple is content with releasing products that simply complement their portfolio rather than create new markets
Isn't that what they did with the smartphone market? The big difference is that the iPhone is a computer running OS X -- all things Apple has huge experience with. A car is something they have no experience with.
> "instead of going all the way like Tesla's AutoPilot"
The name "AutoPilot" is misleading - it's anything but. An advanced lan-assist, sure, but compared to google, Tesla's technology is very far from going all the way.
Full EVs still have competitive vulnerability in range and refueling time. And they likely will for the next decade at least. It's the reason that EVs are still off the table for me.
Something in an innovative hybrid, like a Volt but better designed, would be much more interesting to me.
I'd guess fully autonomous and fully electric. I mean everyone here can see the writing on the wall that this kind of thing that is going to happen. If I'm Apple I skate to where the puck is going to be.
I have a feeling Apple might be working on a completely autonomous design; one that would not be legal to be tested on public roads due to current laws requiring human UI elements such as steering wheels and pedals.
Apple's goal is to make the first well polished version on the market, and then claim they invented it. Looking at MP3Players/Smartphones/TabletsWithPens.
pgodzin|9 years ago
If they proceed with the Apple Car, I would imagine it would be a disrupting concept that Apple would be uniquely prepared to handle.
Roritharr|9 years ago
If Apple ventures out of computing and into areas that need that kind of capital to be feasible, you start comparing lots of medium to low margin industries, the car industry being one of them.
When you look at Apple's brand, company focus and in-house experience, there's only a few industries where diving into could make it a relatively safe bet for the capital involved.
Cars make sense because they are complex technology, already very brand and UX focused in their usual sales processes, and there is a lot of money to be made in the optimization of the supply chain, all things which Apple is second to none.
There were surely other options and I imagine are still being discussed in Cupertino.
Large Scale Urban Development seems like a similar viable candidate, but the salescycles and product lifecycles are probably too much at odds with the rest of Apples business. But the prospect of an build to order Apple Campus must seem quite exciting to some people that are having a blast building the new spaceship.
Among other industries, i could also imagine the Hotel industry being on their marks for similar reasons.
skewart|9 years ago
Back when the iPhone first came out a lot of people dismissed it because it wasn't a very good phone - the audio quality and reception tended to be worse than a good Nokia. Who cares if it has all these extra whiz-bang features like a touch screen and a web browser if it's not a very good phone, the thinking went. A lot of people didn't appreciate that Apple was creating a communication and information retrieval device, and not just a traditional phone with some extra features.
I suspect Apple will create a car that provides a great experience for people getting from point A to point B. It will probably not be a great car to drive. But it will probably be an awesome car for passengers. My guess is that they are betting that there will be more passengers relative to drivers over the next decade or two, and that passengers will, in a perhaps indirect way, become a bigger force in car buying decisions than they have been in the past.
So, by the metrics traditionally used to compare cars it will probably be only an incremental improvement over existing models - or it might even be a step backwards. But by the metrics that we'll use to evaluate cars in ten or fifteen years it will be an amazing improvement.
jms18|9 years ago
"There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance. It's a $500 subsidized item. They may make a lot of money. But if you actually take a look at the 1.3 billion phones that get sold, I'd prefer to have our software in 60% or 70% or 80% of them, than I would to have 2% or 3%, which is what Apple might get."
Palm CEO Ed Colligan in 2006:
"We’ve learned and struggled for a few years here figuring out how to make a decent phone," he said. "[Apple is] not going to just figure this out. They’re not going to just walk in."
nostromo|9 years ago
Apple could release a car that has fewer features than a Tesla or Mercedes, and if it was designed very well, with seamless integration with the iPhone, lots of people would buy it.
jpalomaki|9 years ago
Think about the smart watch market. Many other companies are iterating their products in public. Apple couldn't really surprise the customers with their product. Maybe they build a better product than others, but it was no iPad (which took the whole market by surprise).
kalleboo|9 years ago
That's what people thought about the Apple Watch as well, but it seems these days Apple is content with releasing products that simply complement their portfolio rather than create new markets
wvenable|9 years ago
simonebrunozzi|9 years ago
scoot|9 years ago
The name "AutoPilot" is misleading - it's anything but. An advanced lan-assist, sure, but compared to google, Tesla's technology is very far from going all the way.
ams6110|9 years ago
Full EVs still have competitive vulnerability in range and refueling time. And they likely will for the next decade at least. It's the reason that EVs are still off the table for me.
Something in an innovative hybrid, like a Volt but better designed, would be much more interesting to me.
mikeryan|9 years ago
I'd guess fully autonomous and fully electric. I mean everyone here can see the writing on the wall that this kind of thing that is going to happen. If I'm Apple I skate to where the puck is going to be.
thevibesman|9 years ago
boznz|9 years ago
dexwiz|9 years ago