A good overview of the situation. The slow erosion of freedoms is coming earlier than expected.
Fortunately, the HK people recognise the salami tactics of the CCP, and protest (as in the umbrella movement 2014), and a small but growing minority now agitates for some sort of independence.
However, given
* the increasing power of China on a world-wide stage, even vis-a-vis, say, the UK
* the decreasing relevance of HK for China (see the graph in the article: HK GDP was a quarter of China GDP, now under 3%)
* China's aversion to any secession (almost instinctive, though probably based on historically justified fear of crumbling order and prosperity when a dynasty falls apart), as seen in Xinjiang, Tibet, etc.
it is hard to see how the tensions can be reduced peacefully, rather than gathering steam.
China is just as averse as any other country to secession, it only seems more oppressive about it because more people have tried to secede from it in the last decades. Brazil for instance has a history of revolts for secession, but after ten or twenty bloodbaths the people quieted down, and now only a handful timidly call for it. I'm sure other countries have a similar history, and I hope that nowadays they would have a more understanding attitude towards it. For instance, Catalonia seems to be closer than ever from seceding from Spain, and I hope they can do it without conflict. I wonder though what would happen if one day there are enough Texans to vote for a secession and enough reason to press for it if it's not legally accepted... I imagine Uncle Sam would not be very happy about it.
> For almost all of its history under British rule, executive power in Hong Kong was concentrated in the hands of the colony governor, a position appointed by the British crown without any democratic input from Hong Kong citizens. The introduction of elected representatives determined by local elections, even limited to the role of "advisory councils", did not begin until after the 1984 agreements by the British to hand Hong Kong over to China.
It makes me sad to see this, less than 20 years on.
Chris Patten (last governor, and something of a surprise appointment) made a big effort to shape the handover agreement to give democracy the best chance of surviving. He ended up quite popular in HK and deeply disliked in Beijing.
He has often spoken that one of his biggest regrets was he and Britain couldn't have achieved more and complained that British governments haven't criticised China enough since handover (most recently having a pop at George Osbourne last year). You end up with the impression his 5 years there made more impact on him than the rest of his career.
He certainly made quite a big (and lasting) impression on Hong Kong people. Perhaps by fate, he was the only career politician ever to take the role, and to date he is still the governor/chief executive with the most political skills ever to have led Hong Kong.
For anyone interested in the mainland/HK relationship, I urge you to check out the East West South North blog (1) run by Roland Soong, a local writer who translates Chinese/Cantonese newspaper articles, web videos, and forum posts into English. It’s ostensibly about local politics, but it also gets into the social dynamics and news events including tension between local people and mainlanders over real estate, government services, tourism, and elections.
In addition to activities in Hong Kong, there have been reports that China’s government has pressured overseas Chinese journalists, activists, and community leaders in other parts of the world (2) with at least one Chinese-Canadian journalist losing his job for not toeing the pro-China line. The Globe and Mail has reported that Chinese security agents on tourist visas regularly attempt to strong-arm certain expatriates to return home (3).
Finally, in China itself many journalists have simply given up. Many believe there is no future in the profession, because the government clamps down on almost any reporting that goes against local and national interests (4). The Communist/PRC propaganda machine has been around since 1949, but in an era of instant communications, social networking, and higher standards of living, the hopes and goals of China’s young journalists can’t bypass the power of a one-party political system that will do whatever it takes to achieve its vision of stability while preserving one-party rule.
Although I think integration with mainland China is probably a good thing it's things like this I find alarming:
Hong Kongers are sensitive about encroachment by mainland law enforcement. Last year, several Hong Kong booksellers disappeared after publishing thinly sourced, salacious tell-alls about China’s leaders. They turned up later in detention in mainland China.
Hong Kong is a beautiful country, a bustling dynamic city, with fantastic natural features on every side.
However it lost the ability to innovate, it became too expensive to live in, and talent has poured away.
At the same time liberties are being taken away, and there is a fear of Hong Kong losing its identity.
But there are seeds of hope; the localist / independence movement may still achieve the assumed impossible, and a startup scene is rapidly developing, and technology is beginning to be taken seriously.
I urge you to come visit some time.
Off topic / Advert
We're hosting the 3rd annual Hong Kong Code Conf in a few weeks, if you're looking for an excuse to visit.
Right or wrong, Hong Kong is neither powerful nor self-sufficient enough to resist total integration into mainland China. I suspect the process will be fully complete within another decade. China today is an unacknowledged superpower that is fully capable of enforcing absolute dominance in nearby territories. No amount of international condemnation can stop China.
From a military point of view, Hong Kong as an island is very easy to isolate and fully suppress for years until the people change their minds. China has the economic clout and manpower to do this for decades if necessary.
I strongly believe Hong Kong politicians are better served by asking for concessions and benefits from the mainland (tax reduction, extra funding, etc) then attempting secessionist movements that are only going to spectacularly fail with a bloodbath of their people.
the graph showing gdp is very skewed. China was not an open market in 1985.
in the recent legislative elections,pro democracy voters won.it will be a tough fight for china.people here are prepared to sacrifice multiple generations for freedom.
i live around the region and follow hong kong closely.
would like to share more,but limited by my mobile device.
An important role of Hong Kong over the past few decades has been as a "gateway to China".
Technically China has been open for business for a long time, but the rule of law and peculiarities of Chinese business were less approachable for Western business.
Hong Kong was right nextdoor, spoke English, and had a similar legal system to the UK, and respected copyright and intellectual property.
If you were doing business in China, chances are you were going through Hong Kong or Taiwan.
Gradually though, China has boomed, people have learnt English, and doing business directly with China has become more accessible.
At the same time Hong Kong's rule of law has eroded and Singapore has taken it's place as the business hub of Asia.
China got rich due to massive foreign investments eager to exploit cheap Chinese labor after Deng Xiaoping's "Reform and opening" [1]. During the last three decades, using the foreign money, China has been building an impressive infrastructure supporting its export-oriented economy, but little else. After the labor cost went up, China doesn't have much left to offer the world anymore.
I'd love to hear more from the perspective of Hong Kong residents and natives. In the us we get relatively little coverage of the situation in Hong Kong.
I spoke to a few people from UK, and my guess is that people who voted for Brexit will have a better understanding of it.
No one is against the trade and economic integration, but they are against the political integration.
Then there is the languages. There is a different trying to get everyone to speak Mandarin as well, and trying to get everyone to speak Mandarin Only, while actively trying to kill Cantonese.
I really like the word Genocide used in this thread. It sorts of describe what is happening.
Hong Kong as we've all known it from before 1997 is being eroded and destroyed. People in Hong Kong hate the Chinese Communist Party and strongly dislike mainlanders, and this sentiment is fuelled by savage behaviour of mainland tourists in Hong Kong (including but not limited to defecating in public [1]). The only people in Hong Kong who are sympathetic towards the mainland are those who got involved in corrupt practices there and don't want to lose access to their illegitimate source of wealth.
[+] [-] FabHK|9 years ago|reply
Fortunately, the HK people recognise the salami tactics of the CCP, and protest (as in the umbrella movement 2014), and a small but growing minority now agitates for some sort of independence.
However, given
* the increasing power of China on a world-wide stage, even vis-a-vis, say, the UK
* the decreasing relevance of HK for China (see the graph in the article: HK GDP was a quarter of China GDP, now under 3%)
* China's aversion to any secession (almost instinctive, though probably based on historically justified fear of crumbling order and prosperity when a dynasty falls apart), as seen in Xinjiang, Tibet, etc.
it is hard to see how the tensions can be reduced peacefully, rather than gathering steam.
[+] [-] necessity|9 years ago|reply
[+] [-] vkou|9 years ago|reply
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Hong_Kong#Government
> For almost all of its history under British rule, executive power in Hong Kong was concentrated in the hands of the colony governor, a position appointed by the British crown without any democratic input from Hong Kong citizens. The introduction of elected representatives determined by local elections, even limited to the role of "advisory councils", did not begin until after the 1984 agreements by the British to hand Hong Kong over to China.
[+] [-] unknown|9 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] anexprogrammer|9 years ago|reply
Chris Patten (last governor, and something of a surprise appointment) made a big effort to shape the handover agreement to give democracy the best chance of surviving. He ended up quite popular in HK and deeply disliked in Beijing.
He has often spoken that one of his biggest regrets was he and Britain couldn't have achieved more and complained that British governments haven't criticised China enough since handover (most recently having a pop at George Osbourne last year). You end up with the impression his 5 years there made more impact on him than the rest of his career.
[+] [-] spacehunt|9 years ago|reply
[+] [-] ilamont|9 years ago|reply
In addition to activities in Hong Kong, there have been reports that China’s government has pressured overseas Chinese journalists, activists, and community leaders in other parts of the world (2) with at least one Chinese-Canadian journalist losing his job for not toeing the pro-China line. The Globe and Mail has reported that Chinese security agents on tourist visas regularly attempt to strong-arm certain expatriates to return home (3).
Finally, in China itself many journalists have simply given up. Many believe there is no future in the profession, because the government clamps down on almost any reporting that goes against local and national interests (4). The Communist/PRC propaganda machine has been around since 1949, but in an era of instant communications, social networking, and higher standards of living, the hopes and goals of China’s young journalists can’t bypass the power of a one-party political system that will do whatever it takes to achieve its vision of stability while preserving one-party rule.
1. http://www.zonaeuropa.com/weblog.htm
2. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/28/world/americas/chinese-can...
3. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/chinese-agents-...
4. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/12/china-journali...
[+] [-] FabHK|9 years ago|reply
https://www.hongkongfp.com
[+] [-] dcgudeman|9 years ago|reply
Hong Kongers are sensitive about encroachment by mainland law enforcement. Last year, several Hong Kong booksellers disappeared after publishing thinly sourced, salacious tell-alls about China’s leaders. They turned up later in detention in mainland China.
[+] [-] spacehunt|9 years ago|reply
Why do you think cultural genocide is a good thing?
No, seriously, as a Hong Konger, I really would like to know if are there really any actual advantages.
[+] [-] matthewrudy|9 years ago|reply
Hong Kong is a beautiful country, a bustling dynamic city, with fantastic natural features on every side.
However it lost the ability to innovate, it became too expensive to live in, and talent has poured away.
At the same time liberties are being taken away, and there is a fear of Hong Kong losing its identity.
But there are seeds of hope; the localist / independence movement may still achieve the assumed impossible, and a startup scene is rapidly developing, and technology is beginning to be taken seriously.
I urge you to come visit some time.
Off topic / Advert
We're hosting the 3rd annual Hong Kong Code Conf in a few weeks, if you're looking for an excuse to visit.
http://hongkong.codeconf.io
[+] [-] ksec|9 years ago|reply
[+] [-] ryanisnan|9 years ago|reply
[+] [-] johansch|9 years ago|reply
[+] [-] hockeybias|9 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] lenkite|9 years ago|reply
From a military point of view, Hong Kong as an island is very easy to isolate and fully suppress for years until the people change their minds. China has the economic clout and manpower to do this for decades if necessary.
I strongly believe Hong Kong politicians are better served by asking for concessions and benefits from the mainland (tax reduction, extra funding, etc) then attempting secessionist movements that are only going to spectacularly fail with a bloodbath of their people.
[+] [-] justlearning|9 years ago|reply
in the recent legislative elections,pro democracy voters won.it will be a tough fight for china.people here are prepared to sacrifice multiple generations for freedom.
i live around the region and follow hong kong closely. would like to share more,but limited by my mobile device.
source: https://www.hongkongfp.com/2016/09/05/legislative-legco-hong...
[+] [-] shp0ngle|9 years ago|reply
What happened in the mainland exactly in the last 10, 15 years?
Sorry if it's a naive comment
[+] [-] matthewrudy|9 years ago|reply
Technically China has been open for business for a long time, but the rule of law and peculiarities of Chinese business were less approachable for Western business.
Hong Kong was right nextdoor, spoke English, and had a similar legal system to the UK, and respected copyright and intellectual property.
If you were doing business in China, chances are you were going through Hong Kong or Taiwan.
Gradually though, China has boomed, people have learnt English, and doing business directly with China has become more accessible.
At the same time Hong Kong's rule of law has eroded and Singapore has taken it's place as the business hub of Asia.
[+] [-] idra|9 years ago|reply
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_economic_reform
[+] [-] invaliddata|9 years ago|reply
[+] [-] ksec|9 years ago|reply
Then there is the languages. There is a different trying to get everyone to speak Mandarin as well, and trying to get everyone to speak Mandarin Only, while actively trying to kill Cantonese.
I really like the word Genocide used in this thread. It sorts of describe what is happening.
[+] [-] idra|9 years ago|reply
[1] http://hongkong.coconuts.co/2016/02/02/chinese-woman-shocks-...
[+] [-] dominicwong617|9 years ago|reply
[+] [-] poshli|9 years ago|reply
[+] [-] unknown|9 years ago|reply
[deleted]