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jbb555 | 9 years ago
It's easy to find terms with hindsight that correlated well with what happened (even if you test that prediction with some of your data and reject ones that didn't work). It's not so obvious that they will be any guide to the future.
If aliens attack next week and the market falls for 6 months week by week we're likely in a years to time to find the stock market decline correlated strongly with the use of the word "alien" the week before compared with weeks before the attack when the market was rising and it was hardly mentioned.
It's easy to find correlations with hindsight, the skill is in predicting what they will be in advance
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