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This only holds true if the physical only identifies disease that have downside risk. More realistically, most early identification situations can greatly reduce the cost of future care, eg the overweight 40 y.o. who intervenes to avoid being the obese 60 yo.

It also ignores a number of other selection criteria and behavioral issues, which you are honest enough to note in your pretend for a moment intros.

However, people who proactively care for their health carry "upside risk" as well as downside, which your scenario does not account for.