[qwrusz]

> The 6 years he spent learning at another trading firm or the fact that on his own he probably had alot less risk oversight that allowed him to lever up more than he would have in side of an investment house.

Maybe neither? As good as this kid might be, hard to believe he did a 30x year! Even with more risk and there was some crazy volaility back then, a 30x year going from half a million pounds to 15 million in 12 months is very high.

Never know of course. He might have done it. theoretically possible with the exotics CDS in that year. But also hard to trust journalists aren't just twisting facts these days.

Another explanation for the rise: He already had several million while working at the firm, but they weren't in his name, not in a public filing anyway until went out on his own and took out the funds.

[MR4D]

A 30x return is easy - rare, but easy. Repeating it, however, is damn near impossible.

Options trading, which he was good at, went haywire on that day. Anybody in a decent position with options made crazy returns. But their timing had to be good. If you bought a short-dated, just out of the money SPY put the day before, and sold it that afternoon, you made a killing as far as percentage return.

The number of people who had that or similar trade probably numbers in the thousands. But the reason you don't hear about them is it was either to hedge a larger position, or a small speculative position, and making $50,000 doesn't make headlines.

[jboggan]

I agree with this. I made a 32x return on a front-month WAY out of the money options trade in March of 2008. I tried to pull it off again and lost all of it. Good tuition money.

[qwrusz]

Firstly: this is just overall a ridiculously incorrect comment.

Second: the 30x return discussed was back in 2008-2009. The flash crash you are talking about happened in 2010. Also the SPY moved down like -10% during the crash. Bro, come on.

[ChristianGeek]

I thought that any trades made during the crash were reversed after.

[charlesdm]

If he did 30x a year, he must have been the best investor in the world?

[btilly]

No, it just means an insane beta and good luck. Anyone can set up the lottery to create an insane beta. And luck, well, you know how that goes.

[shoo]

you can't judge skill from outcomes in the short run if a large component of the outcome is outside of the control of the operator

see e.g. Taleb "fooled by randomness"

there's also a good "winner's game" vs "loser's game" argument, see Ellis - The Loser's Game: http://www.cfapubs.org/doi/pdf/10.2469/faj.v51.n1.1865 (PDF)