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Detection of radioactive iodine at trace levels in Europe in January 2017

308 points| ge0rg | 9 years ago |irsn.fr | reply

87 comments

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[+] en|9 years ago|reply
The releases of January 2017 are 10,000 times lower than those observed (in France) following the Fukushima incident[0]

CRIIRAD[1] believes that the meteorological conditions (and air pollution actually in Europe) and (legal) authorizations of iodine-131 releases by the industry are the cause of this event which could have passed unnoticed[0]

It is an unimportant event.

[0] http://www.criirad.org/balises/CRIIRAD_170214%20_I131_Europe...

[1] http://www.criirad.org/english/presentation.html

[+] Keyframe|9 years ago|reply
Might not be an important event concerning public health. It is extremely important if there was an accident or anything more serious we haven't been notified about.
[+] sneak|9 years ago|reply
Maybe unimportant from a health standpoint. I'm not worried at all for safety but I sure as hell want to know the root cause. It is extremely anomalous.
[+] aftbit|9 years ago|reply
Do you have any more info about the authorized iodine-131 releases? Was there a single underlying event?
[+] mschoebel|9 years ago|reply
I'm in Germany and I have a Geiger counter running 24/7. I just looked at the data for January and February and the only thing that I notice is a VERY slightly higher reading on February 4th with 0.1727 microSievert/hour. Average for January was 0.1674, lowest was 0.1631, highest was 0.1703. So February 4th was less than 6% higher than the lowest value from January.

The difference was so small that I had just attributed it to normal fluctuations when I first saw it. Whatever caused this, so far it looks like it was a very small event.

I could probably provide a CSV-file with the raw data if anyone is interested. My Geiger counter stores a value every 5 minutes.

[+] WestCoastJustin|9 years ago|reply
Out of total curiosity what does your setup look like? Do you have a mode # of what you use? Never read anything about this before. Thanks.
[+] jshmrsn|9 years ago|reply
Can someone describe the significance/insignificance/context of this?
[+] cjensen|9 years ago|reply
The ISRN appears to be a French government agency. They are claiming to have detected non-natural levels of radioactive iodine across Europe.

The implication is that someone, somewhere had a nuclear accident and did not report it.

[+] bootload|9 years ago|reply
"Iodine-131 is a radionuclide with a short half-life (T1/2 = 8.04 day)."

Short half life, a nuclear event of some sort happened recently and nothing has been reported. I-131 is an isotope of Iodine and the source could be natural gas related, medical diagnostic OR a product of uranium and plutonium used in nuclear fission. [0]

Which countries have access to plutonium?

"only particulate iodine was reported."

What is the source of the particles?

"first found during week 2 of January 2017 in northern Norway."

What countries have access to plutonium that are active near Norway?

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iodine-131

[+] aeleos|9 years ago|reply
Iodine has a short half-life (8 days) which is the time for half of the material to decay. This means that somewhere in europe, recently, someone is creating / releasing radioactive iodine. However, the levels are extremely low, so it isn't dangerous.
[+] bitL|9 years ago|reply
I guess something happened in the eastern part of Europe, possibly Ukraine, Belarus, Russia, Poland etc. The event was small, yet it was certainly nuclear due to a sudden increase of iodine, even if within range considered still healthy. Obviously nobody reported anything before it was picked up by detectors.
[+] sneak|9 years ago|reply
It is amazing to me how effective the Earth is becoming at relaying globally-affecting information to (for lack of a better term) stakeholders.

Why the month delay?

[+] 21|9 years ago|reply
From what I read in the comments this is a non-threatening event, so there's no uregency and no need to panic the population.
[+] pvaldes|9 years ago|reply
> The detection of this radionuclide is proof of a rather recent release.

Three questions

After rain?

Could be Iodine being generated directly in place from other compounds or being seeded by suspended dust in clouds?

Could be this "Ukranian war" related?

2015: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9644685

[+] Keyframe|9 years ago|reply
Can this be related to explosion in French nuclear power plant a week or so ago?
[+] dragonwriter|9 years ago|reply
Since this was measured in early January, it certainly can't be caused by an event more recent than that, absent a temporal anomaly that would be a bigger deal than the nuclear event.
[+] Mithaldu|9 years ago|reply
That explosion was in a non-nuclear part of the facility, so even if the timing would match, it couldn't be that.
[+] bitL|9 years ago|reply
2nd week of January, so unlikely.
[+] mmrezaie|9 years ago|reply
Does anyone know why there is no data for some countries like Sweden?
[+] chinathrow|9 years ago|reply
I think the readings originate from non-gov detection sources so that might be the cause that simply no one picked it up there.
[+] nkjoep|9 years ago|reply
This article talks about France, but highlights also Sardinia which is part of Italy.
[+] pharrington|9 years ago|reply
Could this possibly be the result of damage to a Ukrainian nuclear power plant during Russian's recent incursions?
[+] olex|9 years ago|reply
There are no nuclear power plants in areas of Ukraine that are affected by the conflict. The closest one is the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant, but it's located in a stable area with no current military activity. Other three are further to the west and equally unaffected.
[+] KVFinn|9 years ago|reply
If someone had secretly tested a nuclear weapon in Asia or Russia, is this the sort of evidence we might expect to see?
[+] rospaya|9 years ago|reply
Satellite imagery and seismographs would be more useful.
[+] bitL|9 years ago|reply
Poland has the highest reading - something going awry at Chernobyl or somebody testing low yield nukes?

I am also really disappointed this wasn't anywhere in the news, at least people could have taken some iodine. I understand the level is low but there is still non-zero probability of somebody going ill from it.

[+] KMag|9 years ago|reply
> I am also really disappointed this wasn't anywhere in the news, at least people could have taken some iodine.

Edit: I know this is harsh, but the OP should realize their post is somewhere on the anti-vaxxer-Facebook-post-scale. It's somewhere around a millipost, but it registers on the scale.

What should the news flash say? "Run from the nearest banana, person, airplane, or mountain."

I'm really disappointed at your disappointment despite an absolute lack of critical thought on your part. What fraction of a banana would you have to eat in order to have the same effect? How many nights would you need to sleep next to someone instead of alone to get the same dose? How many minutes at 30,000 feet does that correspond to?

Back-of-the envelope calculations: the half life is about 8 days, remembering your infinite series from high school, 1/2 + 1/4 + 1/8 ... = 1. So, the total dose over an infinite time frame is the same as 2 half lives at the initial level, so 16 days = 1,382,400 at 1.5e-6 Bq/m^3 works out to about 2 decays per cubic meter over an infinite time frame.

Even assuming you absorbed any decay from 10 cubic meters of air around you, I'm too lazy to look up the difference in number of Joules between Iodine and Potassium decay and work out what fraction of a banana you'd have to eat to get the same dose, or how many days of sleeping next to someone that works out to, but even assuming at steady state you absorb every radioactive decay from 10 m^3 of air (gigantic over-estimate), this is an absolutely tiny dose.

The danger of someone panicking and accidentally overdosing on iodine, or suffering a heart attack/stroke from the increased stress following such a news announcement is almost certainly higher than the risk of someone getting cancer from this.

I live in Hong Kong, where a fair number of people in finance moved from Tokyo following the Fukushima disaster out of radiation concerns. The natural background radiation levels in Hong Kong are higher in Hong Kong by more than the additional radiation in Tokyo due to Fukushima.

You've done literally over a hundred things in the past 24 hours that pose much more danger to you than 1.5 uBq / m^3 of iodine decay.

[+] iSnow|9 years ago|reply
I think we can rule out low-yield nukes, those test would still create a noticeable signal.

If I had to place a bet, then I'd put it on some low to medium accident at a nuclear power station in Russia that led to an emergency release of contaminated steam.

[+] patall|9 years ago|reply
Yeah, but taking too much iodine also results in a non-zero probability of side effects (I mean it is already not recommended to take pills for anyone over 45). If there is no real risk assumed, such news would only serve to spread panic and sensationalism. As long as it is not buried, I rather prefer it like this.
[+] ge0rg|9 years ago|reply
Poland has the highest reading

I wondered so as well, but the second-highest was from Spain, and I struggle to form a consistent picture from that.

[+] lostlogin|9 years ago|reply
Is there a non zero risk from that dose? I don't know how to apply that result to an individual, but it would seem a likely big extrapolation on the linear no threshhold model. When was the shield moved over Chernobyl, could that have stirred things up?
[+] jakub_g|9 years ago|reply
Regarding Chernobyl, they've just put in place a new sarcophagus in late 2016 after years of work. One would rather expect the radiation to get lower (but I am not an expert). Interesting anyway.