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Has There Been a Nuclear Incident in the Arctic?

821 points| bootload | 9 years ago |thedrive.com

247 comments

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[+] chris_overseas|9 years ago|reply
I travelled on a (non-nuclear) icebreaker out from Murmansk back in 2012. On the way out to the open ocean we passed several moored nuclear powered icebreakers and other vessels in various states of decay[0]. It was both fascinating and disturbing to see - many of these had not yet been decommissioned and it seemed to me that they were huge disasters waiting to happen.

In Murmansk itself there is a nuclear icebreaker (The Lenin) that has been decommissioned and converted into a museum where you can tour the vessel and see everything including the engine rooms and nuclear reactors. Despite it being decommissioned, I discovered some systems were clearly still functioning when I accidentally leaned on a random control panel and a bunch of lights lit up!

Photos from the trip are here[1], with the first seven photos being taken of or onboard the Lenin.

Note that one of the most powerful nuclear icebreakers in the world, The 50 Years of Victory, is available for tourists to travel to the North Pole[2]

[0] http://www.redyeti.net/FranzJosefLand/content/bin/images/lar...

[1] http://www.redyeti.net/FranzJosefLand/index.html

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/50_Let_Pobedy

[+] axelfontaine|9 years ago|reply
I recognize those yellow jackets! I travelled with the same company (Quark Expeditions) on an expedition to Antarctica that same year. Incredible memories :-)
[+] pratyushag2|9 years ago|reply
These are incredible pictures. What kind of camera did you use to click these?
[+] csomar|9 years ago|reply
How much does it cost for such a trip?
[+] exabrial|9 years ago|reply
I do have to complement the authors of this article. It presents the facts and leaves out political rhetoric and noise. I'm pleased with the title too; if the article were featured on a mainstream news site in the USA, it would have declared it as a definitive event and give a list of what products to buy from their advertisers.
[+] sanjeetsuhag|9 years ago|reply
The author, Tyler Rogoway, is a revered aviation journalist. He used to write for FoxtrotAlpha. I've followed him for a couple of years and now and he always presents a very balanced stance on issues.
[+] matt4077|9 years ago|reply
I feel this vilification of the media is far overblown.

Specifically: I cannot imagine that a quality news site (say the NY Times, Atlantic, or WSJ) would not mention such uncertainty.

More easily provable: I challenge you to find a single article of about a disaster that includes unwarranted product recommendations (i. e. not "authorities are asking citizen to stock water and other necessities in preparation for the hurricane...")

I'd also like to point out that the "mainstream media" is doing an excellent job regarding these reports: not reporting on them. By now, they have certainly seen these reports. The excitement that grips HN and your comment speak to the fact that it would make for excellent clickbait. But there's nothing anywhere.

On the other end of the spectrum, there's alarmist clickbait with "nuclear incident" in quotes that make it appear as a euphemism for a meltdown (otherwise it'd just be a nuclear incident), posted in a series called "The War Zone".

Here are some other issues I find with the article. It's splitting hairs in a way, but I wish people had a bit of an appreciation for the work of professional journalists and editors:

- The article is tagged "nukes" and "atmospheric testing" when it's almost certainly not a nuclear test. Because that would be stupid. And it would have been picked up by seismographs.

- "Because of the low levels of concentration, there is no health risk to the public or the environment, at least on a wide scale." This leaves open the possibility of smaller-scale health hazards, falsely sensationalising the available data. OTOH, "Levels of concentration" is a phrase capable of inflicting some serious health effects among english language teachers.

- "The highly unique aircraft are specifically designed to respond to nuclear incidents—especially those that include the detonation of nuclear warheads." There is so much wrong with this sentence:

  - There's only one WC-135, so the plural is wrong.

  - Everything that's "designed to..." is "specifically designed to..."  

  - Which "nuclear incident that involves the detonation of nuclear warheads" is not described more succinctly as "the detonation of (a) nuclear warhead(s)"?

  - The latter half of the sentence seems designed to fuel speculation 
- "What are WC-135s doing up there?" There's still only one of these in existence (the plural form is used another 4 or 5 times).

- "There has been some talk about even the US restarting its nuclear testing under President Trump..." If this is speculation mixed with hyperbole, do not bring it up! Any mention, no matter how dismissive, just serves to legitimise such speculation. In this case the best argument against it isn't even mentioned: you don't set up a nuclear test in 3 weeks.

- " The Russian submarine K-27 [...] is said to be literally a ticking time bomb." If the evil media conspiracy saves me from such uses of the word "literally", I think I'm ok with their control of my thoughts.

[+] shermozle|9 years ago|reply
Doesn't Betteridge's Law mean the answer is "no"?
[+] hermitdev|9 years ago|reply
> I do have to complement the authors of this article.

Why? for blatantly lying and misrepresenting facts such as Trump was president when these "tests" took place?

> It presents the facts and leaves out political rhetoric and noise.

It does the exact opposite: it portends to lay out facts, but instead it lies about which president under which these "tests" occurred, so everything else they state is suspect.

[+] patcheudor|9 years ago|reply
It's interesting the author mentioned the nuclear generators and whatnot used in lighthouses and for small portable power generation. Those use strontium-90 and other byproducts of nastier energetic fissions which if my amateur nuclear physics brain is functioning correctly don't produce iodine-131. Iodine-131 is a byproduct of uranium-235/238 decay & fission. Since practical fusion doesn't yet exist, iodine-131 can only come from more energetic reactions like U235/238 fission. It's hard to imagine Russia left fissionable uranium abandoned, even in the Arctic.
[+] xelxebar|9 years ago|reply
Kind of off topic, but mind sharing how you molded such an amateur nuclear physics brain?
[+] advisedwang|9 years ago|reply
The discussion of waste and derelict reactors should probably be ignored given the earlier statement that the presence of I-131 means fission took place in the last few days.

As the article states, nuclear explosions are unlikely as we would be hearing about seismic measurements too like in the case of N. Korean detonations.

My bet is on a small accident on a nuclear vessel or another small reactor around Europe (e.g. university research reactors).

[+] mikeash|9 years ago|reply
A rare example where the answer to the headline's questions is not "no," although neither is it "yes."
[+] rchowe|9 years ago|reply
My thoughts too. And in this case, phrasing it as a question is more honest than saying "there may have been a nuclear incident in the Arctic", since the statement would still likely cause some panic.
[+] drharby|9 years ago|reply
WOW I'm impressed.

I literally never open headlines with rhetorical questions because the rule of thumb for media headlines is that the answer is always 'no'

[+] tradersam|9 years ago|reply
Somewhat related, the WC-135 Constant Phoenix is one cool looking plane.
[+] Animats|9 years ago|reply
That's because it's mostly wing. It dates from the Dash-80 era of slim, pure jets and low-bypass engines. Today's high-bypass engines are big shrouded fans with a jet engine at the center to spin them. Fuel economy is much better, but the engines look bloated.
[+] stuckagain|9 years ago|reply
It's a Boeing 707, essentially.
[+] jefe_|9 years ago|reply
Really shows the size and capability of U.S.A.F. when they have a plane and team they can casually deploy to what appears to be a highly specific situation. The article says the aircraft is specifically designed to use atmospheric data to determine cause and nature of nuclear incidents. Imagining the manpower and testing and everything that goes into designing and implementing a system like this, and then multiplying it by all of the other teams and special aircraft and systems at their disposal, it really is impressive. All done over a period of 70 years.
[+] njharman|9 years ago|reply
Considering nuclear warfare has been there primary mission for 60+ years, I'm not impressed.
[+] chiph|9 years ago|reply
With North Korea testing weapons rather frequently, it still has a mission even today.
[+] mmaunder|9 years ago|reply
Could be a satellite reentry. It's not unprecedented.

In 1978, Soviet satellite Kosmos 954 crashed into the atmosphere and spread 50kg's of Uranium across western Canada. They only recovered 1% of the fuel. One of the pieces recovered was radioactive enough to kill a person in a few hours.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kosmos_954

[+] westbywest|9 years ago|reply
Comment made in other threads is that this particular isotope of iodine is very short-lived (8 days) and a known product of uranium and plutonium fission. So, its source is assumed to be recent fission event, or medical radiotherapy generation. Any unrecovered material from defunct satellites probably no longer undergoing active fission.
[+] prdonahue|9 years ago|reply
Came here just to say if you're interested in this type of material, highly recommend following Tyler Rogoway. He was the heart and soul of Foxtrot Alpha before Thiel torpedoed Gawker.
[+] dsfyu404ed|9 years ago|reply
Pretty good article.

I'm betting on Russian scrap yard accident. I'm sure the CIA knows what's really up.

[+] bahularora|9 years ago|reply
Recently a small blast occurred in Flamanville station in France.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/french-nuclea...

[+] alexeckermann|9 years ago|reply
> Authorities said there was "no nuclear risk" following the blast in Flamanville shortly before 10am local time (9am GMT) on Thursday.

> Officials said the blast took place in the turbine hall and confirmed there was no radioactive leak.

[+] jbg_|9 years ago|reply
The measurements were taken before this incident in France occurred.
[+] droopybuns|9 years ago|reply
This is the nuclear version of "who farted?"
[+] dll|9 years ago|reply
Many European countries share radiological monitoring data with each other, and this is made available to the public through the Joint Research Council: https://remon.jrc.ec.europa.eu/

I'm not sure if it's possible to get historical data, but if so it could be interesting to have a look at data from January.

[+] anovikov|9 years ago|reply
I-131 can be only a consequence of recent nuclear reaction taking place. Sudden criticality and explosion of an old submaride won't produce enough of that - while will release whole lot of other isotopes, so no one would mention iodine. It can be little but a reactor meltdown or a nuclear explosion (while that must have seismic signature hard to not mention)
[+] anovikov|9 years ago|reply
The quoted levels are unimaginably small! Almost invisible. I wonder how they manage to detect them. Just calculated that if whole of the Earth's atmosphere was filled with I-131 with maximum reported concentration (0.5E-6bq/m3), it would be an amount of iodine that is produced with a nuclear explosion of 0.00024kt, i.e. 240kg TNT equivalent. That is so small that it hardly qualifies as a nuclear explosion - more like 'critical assembly accident'.

And YES, this could be explained by a disposed nuclear reactor of an old submarine suddenly going prompt critical and blowing up! In the split second when it explodes it could release that and even much larger amount of iodine. I just couldn't imagine that levels so low are detectable.

It could be also an explosion on non-disposed, fresh nuclear reactor. That can explain lack of other detectable isotopes. And that is an event too small to produce a detectable seismic signature.

[+] Tepix|9 years ago|reply
What equipment does it take to take these kinds of detailed readings (iodine 131)?

I've considered running a simple DIY geiger counter RadMon monitoring kit (https://sites.google.com/site/diygeigercounter/gk-radmon ) however that would only give me CPM and µSv/h.

[+] cocoablazing|9 years ago|reply
You need a concentrating system and a spectroscopic radiation measurement system to produce a signal with sufficient SNR.