Wow. This sends so many thoughts cascading through my head that I'm dizzy.
Some things to consider, China has been working up to getting a space capability to send people to the Moon with the full backing of the government funding, by 2035[1]. They started in 2003. SpaceX was founded in 2002 and they are saying they will fly someone around the moon next year? Dragon has the deltaV to land on the moon (not sure if it has enough to get off again though) and SpaceX certainly has the expertise in building spacecraft that land.
The next person to take a picture of the Earth from moon may not be on a government funded mission. That one really blows my mind. For so long it was only countries that could do something like that, now it is nearly within reach of individuals.
The UN has treaties about claiming (or not) the moon by a nation state, but there isn't anything about a privately funded and established outpost that wants to declare independence. All this time I imagined that some country would establish a base there, and grudgingly offer up some space for non-state use, and now there is this possibility of a private facility that states have to ask permission to visit? That is priceless.
> China has been working up to getting a space capability to send people to the Moon with the full backing of the government funding, by 2035[1]. They started in 2003. SpaceX was founded in 2002 and they are saying they will fly someone around the moon next year?
I don't want to downplay SpaceX at all because I'm a huge fan, but isn't flying someone to the moon (and presumably back) more complicated than just flying around the moon and back? As I understand, apart from the challenge of achieving orbital velocity (no small feat), flying around the moon might require ~41% more velocity (assuming escape velocity to orbital velocity being a ratio of something like sqrt(2):1) and you can use the moon's gravity to redirect you back to earth, whereas landing on the moon and returning requires even more energy (slowing down to land + escaping the moon and returning), not to mention the various other technical requirements involved with the landing itself.
"Beyond the moon" makes this sound like it'll be a greater achievement than the Apollo moon landings, but I'm not sure that's really true. Don't get me wrong, the fact that it's a private (ish) company doing this is incredible, just not quite "moon landing" incredible... yet.
> The next person to take a picture of the Earth from moon may not be on a government funded mission.
Note that the press release says:
Most importantly, we would like to thank NASA, without whom this would not be possible. NASA’s Commercial Crew Program, which provided most of the funding for Dragon 2 development, is a key enabler for this mission.
Your tax dollars, if you are American, helped pay for this. Thank you and congratulations - if it works out; if not, was it worth the risk?
EDIT: In response to many below, remember that the U.S. military isn't the only alternative use of the money. Taxpayers could keep it, or it could go to other programs such as education and health. (Personally, I'd happily pay more taxes for more space exploration, education, health, and military necessary for security.)
>> For so long it was only countries that could do something like that, now it is nearly within reach of individuals.
And that is something we all need to think long and hard about. Sure, spaceflight is cheaper these days, but we also live in an age of extraordinarily concentrated wealth. The necessary implication of individuals with power enough to rival governments is that, well, they can rival governments.
Anyone else see that giant superyacht in london? The one that used HMS Belfast as a dock. Some really do have toys to rival governments.
> there isn't anything about a privately funded and established outpost that wants to declare independence
Practically speaking, there isn't anything the UN can do if America sticks a base on Mars and calls it sovereign soil. We've already started legalising private ownership of celestial bodies through the SPACE Act, in direct contravention of the Outer Space Treaty.
This is great, but let's have some perspective, please. SpaceX is the beneficiary of decades of research in engineering and basic science by the US government. They aren't making this achievement as a result of their own original effort or even funding (NASA provided a significant portion of the funding).
I don't think it is fair to compare the SpaceX plan with China's (who have almost certainly had to acquire the expertise from a starting position far, far behind where SpaceX started).
>Dragon has the deltaV to land on the moon (not sure if it has enough to get off again though) and SpaceX certainly has the expertise in building spacecraft that land.
Not if you count de-orbiting as part of landing it doesn't. It has something like 300m/s dV. Landing would take 2000ish, and that just gets you down.
> All this time I imagined that some country would establish a base there, and grudgingly offer up some space for non-state use, and now there is this possibility of a private facility that states have to ask permission to visit? That is priceless.
I've always held the following questions about space, and moon - in-specific - exploration:
* Why are we not placing a DNA/Seed-vault on the moon
* Why are we not depositing resources on the moon
* Why dont we plan, plant, place autonomous robotic pods on the moon that can be called down/up carrying various resources
* what happens to the moon if we transfer water/create water on the moon
* Why cant this be a global effort, in the sense that we are talking about colonizing/visiting mars, but we can't even colonize the moon? What/Who is blocking this effort?
* Why aren't we actually practicing mars colonization on the moon first???
---
There are so many questions that I have about moon colonization/exploration that are so flippantly replied to as cost...
It feeds my tinfoil: there are things on the moon they dont want us to see??? (I know, just as flippant - but c'mon humanity, get your shit together and put some known colonies on the freaking moon!)
> We are excited to announce that SpaceX has been approached to fly two private citizens on a trip around the moon late next year. They have already paid a significant deposit to do a moon mission.
Can't wait to hear who booked this trip! Definitely one of the coolest ways to spend a lot of superfluous money :)
About 20 years ago as a young engineer I was given the opportunity to propose some solutions to NASA, and was invited to the Kennedy Space Center’s LCC for the presentation. Prior to meeting with the exec team at the LCC they took me on a tour of the VAB, where I saw all the operations and was allowed to take digital images of some of the vehicle assembly and maintenance operations to demonstrate possible improvements. Such great energy at the whole KSC. What an honor to be there to feel that passion and gratitude!
Last month I was again at the KSC and LCC as a tourist, and the energy was just a minute fraction of what I'd seen 20 years before. We need this kind of vision [from SpaceX and others, e.g., like this other NASA-based article today with the young engineer comments, who did the hydroponics in microgravity at https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13743196 ] to push science and technology beyond the video game and entertainment markets. Congratulations to SpaceX, the microgravity hydroponics engineer, and the others with vision who are once-again elevating the bright eyes of brilliant youth, scientists and engineers.
Absolutely incredible. This will be the furthest that humanity has journeyed away from Earth in a very long time.
However it is worth noting that there hasn't been a single crewed Dragon flight yet. There are demonstator flights scheduled for this year though with the first NASA crewed mission slated for May 2018. That's an incredibly aggressive timeline but if anyone can achieve it, SpaceX can.
The long duration flight beyond the moon will be a fantastic proving ground, however.
They've already had Dragon flights where they've said "if there were humans aboard, they'd have been just fine", i.e. the Dragon's life-support capabilities have been tested.
You don't have to have flown humans to test whether you can fly humans, you know you were able to maintain a breathable atmosphere, and you know you have enough fuel to launch a few hundred kilos of meatbags, food & water.
While this feat depends on hitting a lot of intermediate milestones - Falcon Heavy Test, Crew Dragon Unmanned to ISS, Crew Dragon manned to ISS, etc, there is no "show-stopper" that is apparent right now.
I like how they have avoided committing to the much harder "landing on the Moon and then return" scenario.
Note that NASA, I believe at Trump's urging, recently said they would try to place humans on the first flight of the Space Launch System (the new heavy lift rocket) - i.e., no unmanned testing first.
Is Musk still maintaining a relationship with Trump? When Uber founder Travis Kalanick left Trump's business council, Musk was still on it AFAIK. I wonder if Musk is doing this or announcing it for related reasons. Certainly Trump has a history, even in his short tenure, of pressuring businesses into announcements that suit his agenda. And the announcement seems to fit Trump's pattern: Impossible, brazen bravado. (Musk gives the impossible some credibility, but that's what is meant by lending someone your credibility.)
It's speculative, but it's also sad and a bad sign when we must look for government interference in the free market at this level, to provide propaganda for the President.
I find this schedule very very unlikely. No humans have flown in the Dragon at all yet.
Also none on any of SpaceX:s rockets. There have been lots of launch and pad failures.
I'm cheering for SpaceX for doing more towards spacefaring, but I'm very skeptical and think this will, at least, end up being negative PR to them, and, at worst, a lot more.
A quote from an article on the Verge says "Musk declined to comment on the exact cost of the trip, but said it was “comparable” or a little more than the cost of a crewed mission to the International Space Station."
Does anyone have a rough estimate how much a manned mission to the ISS currently costs?
For perspective, it cost about $200 million to get your name on an America's Cup trophy. So as billionaire vanity projects go, this is pretty reasonable.
At least from NASA's standpoint, looks like they budget single-digit $Billions for human spaceflight, out of a yearly budget in the range of $18B. I'm not sure how cleanly that can be broken down per-mission, since stays aboard the ISS can now exceed 12 months. https://spaceflightnow.com/2015/02/02/nasa-outlines-fy-2016-...
If I remember correctly, the price of a Soyuz seat is around $20,000,000USD for tourists, with NASA's price to fly on Soyuz being much higher per seat.
> "Falcon Heavy is due to launch its first test flight this summer and, once successful, will be the most powerful vehicle to reach orbit after the Saturn V moon rocket."
SpaceX at its usual :) . By which criteria Energiya is less powerful vehicle to reach orbit than Falcon Heavy?
I think it's a bit of weird language. From comparing what specs I could find Energia had significantly greater LEO capacity (200% of Falcon Heavy), and a slight advantage in GTO payloads, a slight disadvantage at trans-lunar payloads and has no capacity at all for trans-Martian payloads where the Falcon Heavy can deliver 14,000kg/14 tonnes/30864.717lbs of payload.
So I think they are claiming that title due to Energia dropping off after trans-lunar ranges assuming Falcon Heavy reaches "orbit" and then travels further beyond.
Best news I've heard today, if I had that much $ I too would want to do something that only a handful of humans have ever experienced. If Elon reads this I will give you everything in my bank account and everything I will earn in the next 5 years to orbit the earth. It has been a dream of mine and seeing the privatization of space flight gets me so excited for the future. Sucks to be my kids as I hope I get to blow their inheritance on a trip to the moon.
I wonder if it is going to be only two people who are going to go. Will they add more people if they come forward with significant amount of money too?
Seems to me like the cost of taking in another person will be negligible in comparison to the funding they could contribute. This is literally a one-in-a-lifetime experience
Shouldn't they consider a staged approach, not unlike FDA trials. Start with a Laika dog, proceed with a chimp, as all other space programs have done in the past?
Also, if this succeeds, what happens to Google's moonshot projects? Is rebranding in the works?
Huge SpaceX fan here, but I've heard from various news sources that the company is famous for aggressively posting dates and then slowly letting them slide. Might that be the case here? (Still, even if it's 2 or 3 years, wow!)
> This presents an opportunity for humans to return to deep space for the first time in 45 years and they will travel faster and further into the Solar System than any before them.
Shocking that it's been this long. There is an entire generation that hasn't seen man make it into deep space.
This is exciting news. Some time ago, looking at the F9 Heavy, it seemed to me that SpaceX could fly to the moon with it anytime they decided to. Of course their focus is the Mars. But in the day and age of multi-billionaires and the commercial availability of space flights via SpaceX, this makes absolutely sense. Private funding could push space flights much quicker ahead.
> ... two private citizens ... have already paid a significant deposit to do a moon mission. Like the Apollo astronauts before them, these individuals will travel into space carrying the hopes and dreams of all humankind ...
Except that these two private citizens are presumably absurdly wealthy. Whereas the nationalize space program which brought forth the Apollo mission gave all private citizens, as well as schoolchildren for generations, hope and aspirational outlooks.
Whereas the current national situation in the US, with respect to primary-school education and government-supported science is quite dire. So things are not at all hopeful right now, and many of us suffer nightmares of violence and deportation.
Well in a way these are fantastic news. But on the other side they are totally reckless news.
What if the Sun has a SEP event during that period? Everyone on board will die in the period from hours to days from exposure to radiation.
We presently have absolutely no knowledge on how to predict that this will happen or to protect a ship in case it happens.
The Moon missions where done before we knew of the existence of SEPs and fortunately we were lucky... but we are not supposed to just rely on luck now that we know they exist.
[+] [-] ChuckMcM|9 years ago|reply
Some things to consider, China has been working up to getting a space capability to send people to the Moon with the full backing of the government funding, by 2035[1]. They started in 2003. SpaceX was founded in 2002 and they are saying they will fly someone around the moon next year? Dragon has the deltaV to land on the moon (not sure if it has enough to get off again though) and SpaceX certainly has the expertise in building spacecraft that land.
The next person to take a picture of the Earth from moon may not be on a government funded mission. That one really blows my mind. For so long it was only countries that could do something like that, now it is nearly within reach of individuals.
The UN has treaties about claiming (or not) the moon by a nation state, but there isn't anything about a privately funded and established outpost that wants to declare independence. All this time I imagined that some country would establish a base there, and grudgingly offer up some space for non-state use, and now there is this possibility of a private facility that states have to ask permission to visit? That is priceless.
[1] http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2016/04/29/man-on-the-moo...
[+] [-] dperfect|9 years ago|reply
I don't want to downplay SpaceX at all because I'm a huge fan, but isn't flying someone to the moon (and presumably back) more complicated than just flying around the moon and back? As I understand, apart from the challenge of achieving orbital velocity (no small feat), flying around the moon might require ~41% more velocity (assuming escape velocity to orbital velocity being a ratio of something like sqrt(2):1) and you can use the moon's gravity to redirect you back to earth, whereas landing on the moon and returning requires even more energy (slowing down to land + escaping the moon and returning), not to mention the various other technical requirements involved with the landing itself.
"Beyond the moon" makes this sound like it'll be a greater achievement than the Apollo moon landings, but I'm not sure that's really true. Don't get me wrong, the fact that it's a private (ish) company doing this is incredible, just not quite "moon landing" incredible... yet.
[+] [-] hackuser|9 years ago|reply
Note that the press release says:
Most importantly, we would like to thank NASA, without whom this would not be possible. NASA’s Commercial Crew Program, which provided most of the funding for Dragon 2 development, is a key enabler for this mission.
Your tax dollars, if you are American, helped pay for this. Thank you and congratulations - if it works out; if not, was it worth the risk?
EDIT: In response to many below, remember that the U.S. military isn't the only alternative use of the money. Taxpayers could keep it, or it could go to other programs such as education and health. (Personally, I'd happily pay more taxes for more space exploration, education, health, and military necessary for security.)
[+] [-] sandworm101|9 years ago|reply
And that is something we all need to think long and hard about. Sure, spaceflight is cheaper these days, but we also live in an age of extraordinarily concentrated wealth. The necessary implication of individuals with power enough to rival governments is that, well, they can rival governments.
Anyone else see that giant superyacht in london? The one that used HMS Belfast as a dock. Some really do have toys to rival governments.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/nintchdb...
[+] [-] JumpCrisscross|9 years ago|reply
Practically speaking, there isn't anything the UN can do if America sticks a base on Mars and calls it sovereign soil. We've already started legalising private ownership of celestial bodies through the SPACE Act, in direct contravention of the Outer Space Treaty.
[+] [-] sidlls|9 years ago|reply
I don't think it is fair to compare the SpaceX plan with China's (who have almost certainly had to acquire the expertise from a starting position far, far behind where SpaceX started).
[+] [-] matthewmcg|9 years ago|reply
[+] [-] zardo|9 years ago|reply
Not if you count de-orbiting as part of landing it doesn't. It has something like 300m/s dV. Landing would take 2000ish, and that just gets you down.
[+] [-] andrepd|9 years ago|reply
That is scary, and dangerous, more like.
[+] [-] samstave|9 years ago|reply
* Why are we not placing a DNA/Seed-vault on the moon
* Why are we not depositing resources on the moon
* Why dont we plan, plant, place autonomous robotic pods on the moon that can be called down/up carrying various resources
* what happens to the moon if we transfer water/create water on the moon
* Why cant this be a global effort, in the sense that we are talking about colonizing/visiting mars, but we can't even colonize the moon? What/Who is blocking this effort?
* Why aren't we actually practicing mars colonization on the moon first???
---
There are so many questions that I have about moon colonization/exploration that are so flippantly replied to as cost...
It feeds my tinfoil: there are things on the moon they dont want us to see??? (I know, just as flippant - but c'mon humanity, get your shit together and put some known colonies on the freaking moon!)
[+] [-] unknown|9 years ago|reply
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[+] [-] ordbajsare|9 years ago|reply
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[+] [-] xcode_|9 years ago|reply
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[+] [-] MichaelMoser123|9 years ago|reply
Also a private entity can't assert jurisdiction over anything, you have to be a state to do just that.
[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-27/tesla-slu...
Downvotes? Ah, i forgot that around here one is not supposed to question anything that Elon does.
[+] [-] ironchief|9 years ago|reply
1. In a comment about the announcement alluded to it as a "recurring dream"[1]
2. 5 years ago, described a moon orbit as "when I plan to fly in space. I have two specific missions in mind"[2]
3. SpaceX Board Member and investor
4. Has the money
5. Knows Elon "Mr Musk declined to reveal their identities, only saying that they knew each other"[3]
6. Is "nobody from Hollywood"
7. Liked this comment on his FB wall "Can I tag along?!? Ahhhhh!!!"[4]
[1]https://www.flickr.com/photos/jurvetson/23226164619
[2]https://www.flickr.com/photos/jurvetson/7659357718
[3]http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-39111030
[4]https://www.facebook.com/jurvetson/posts/10158310863860611?c...
[+] [-] _lbaq|9 years ago|reply
Source: http://spaceflightnow.com/2017/02/27/spacex-to-send-two-priv...
[+] [-] troymc|9 years ago|reply
[+] [-] runesoerensen|9 years ago|reply
Can't wait to hear who booked this trip! Definitely one of the coolest ways to spend a lot of superfluous money :)
[+] [-] solidr53|9 years ago|reply
[+] [-] chrisper|9 years ago|reply
[+] [-] MrZongle2|9 years ago|reply
[+] [-] United857|9 years ago|reply
[+] [-] grouplinkdave|9 years ago|reply
Last month I was again at the KSC and LCC as a tourist, and the energy was just a minute fraction of what I'd seen 20 years before. We need this kind of vision [from SpaceX and others, e.g., like this other NASA-based article today with the young engineer comments, who did the hydroponics in microgravity at https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13743196 ] to push science and technology beyond the video game and entertainment markets. Congratulations to SpaceX, the microgravity hydroponics engineer, and the others with vision who are once-again elevating the bright eyes of brilliant youth, scientists and engineers.
[+] [-] davidklemke|9 years ago|reply
However it is worth noting that there hasn't been a single crewed Dragon flight yet. There are demonstator flights scheduled for this year though with the first NASA crewed mission slated for May 2018. That's an incredibly aggressive timeline but if anyone can achieve it, SpaceX can.
The long duration flight beyond the moon will be a fantastic proving ground, however.
[+] [-] avar|9 years ago|reply
You don't have to have flown humans to test whether you can fly humans, you know you were able to maintain a breathable atmosphere, and you know you have enough fuel to launch a few hundred kilos of meatbags, food & water.
[+] [-] marcofloriano|9 years ago|reply
Sometimes i wonder if that's an strategy from the management team to put pressure in the engineers.
[+] [-] suprgeek|9 years ago|reply
I like how they have avoided committing to the much harder "landing on the Moon and then return" scenario.
[+] [-] hackuser|9 years ago|reply
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/15/science/nasa-looks-to-spe...
Is Musk still maintaining a relationship with Trump? When Uber founder Travis Kalanick left Trump's business council, Musk was still on it AFAIK. I wonder if Musk is doing this or announcing it for related reasons. Certainly Trump has a history, even in his short tenure, of pressuring businesses into announcements that suit his agenda. And the announcement seems to fit Trump's pattern: Impossible, brazen bravado. (Musk gives the impossible some credibility, but that's what is meant by lending someone your credibility.)
It's speculative, but it's also sad and a bad sign when we must look for government interference in the free market at this level, to provide propaganda for the President.
[+] [-] Gravityloss|9 years ago|reply
I'm cheering for SpaceX for doing more towards spacefaring, but I'm very skeptical and think this will, at least, end up being negative PR to them, and, at worst, a lot more.
[+] [-] jansen|9 years ago|reply
Does anyone have a rough estimate how much a manned mission to the ISS currently costs?
[+] [-] trafficlight|9 years ago|reply
Russia currently charges $58 million per seat to the ISS, with the price expected to increase to $80ish million by 2018.
[+] [-] reddog|9 years ago|reply
[+] [-] bobsky|9 years ago|reply
http://www.businessinsider.com/space-travel-per-seat-cost-so...
[+] [-] netcraft|9 years ago|reply
[+] [-] westbywest|9 years ago|reply
[+] [-] unknown|9 years ago|reply
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[+] [-] goshx|9 years ago|reply
[+] [-] plttn|9 years ago|reply
[+] [-] avmich|9 years ago|reply
SpaceX at its usual :) . By which criteria Energiya is less powerful vehicle to reach orbit than Falcon Heavy?
[+] [-] wavefunction|9 years ago|reply
So I think they are claiming that title due to Energia dropping off after trans-lunar ranges assuming Falcon Heavy reaches "orbit" and then travels further beyond.
[+] [-] ChrisBland|9 years ago|reply
[+] [-] ktta|9 years ago|reply
Seems to me like the cost of taking in another person will be negligible in comparison to the funding they could contribute. This is literally a one-in-a-lifetime experience
[+] [-] dalbasal|9 years ago|reply
[+] [-] rodionos|9 years ago|reply
Also, if this succeeds, what happens to Google's moonshot projects? Is rebranding in the works?
[+] [-] DanielBMarkham|9 years ago|reply
[+] [-] joshuakcockrell|9 years ago|reply
Shocking that it's been this long. There is an entire generation that hasn't seen man make it into deep space.
[+] [-] _ph_|9 years ago|reply
[+] [-] gigatexal|9 years ago|reply
[+] [-] clebio|9 years ago|reply
Except that these two private citizens are presumably absurdly wealthy. Whereas the nationalize space program which brought forth the Apollo mission gave all private citizens, as well as schoolchildren for generations, hope and aspirational outlooks.
Whereas the current national situation in the US, with respect to primary-school education and government-supported science is quite dire. So things are not at all hopeful right now, and many of us suffer nightmares of violence and deportation.
So, there's that.
[+] [-] jbmorgado|9 years ago|reply
What if the Sun has a SEP event during that period? Everyone on board will die in the period from hours to days from exposure to radiation.
We presently have absolutely no knowledge on how to predict that this will happen or to protect a ship in case it happens.
The Moon missions where done before we knew of the existence of SEPs and fortunately we were lucky... but we are not supposed to just rely on luck now that we know they exist.