[thisnotmyacc]

Set a goal of $1 billion yearly profit by 2020. That places the value at PE of 20 PE (2/3rds of Alphabets 29.9) at ~$20 billion, which is ~2 times their current valuation.

Assuming 5% YoY growth in revenue, which is about 2% growth in users combined with a 2% better yield, both of which are imminently doable, the current $2.5B revenue grows to about $3B.

According to their 2016 financial statement, http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/AMDA-2F526X/398748660..., Twitter spent 2.668B in 2016. So that means Twitter needs to cut costs by 20% by 2020 to hit my goal of $1bn profit.

Twitter spent $800 million on each of their three big areas, which they list as "Cost of revenue", "Research and development" and "Sales and marketing". If you can shave off 40% from each of "Research and development" and "Sales and marketing", costs hit $2Billion give or take, and goal achieved.

None of that is silicon valley swing for the moon sexy, and it seems pretty unremarkable in a world of hype and excess. But $3B in revenue and $2bn in costs seems achievable by 2020.

[Trundle]

Cutting sales and marketing by 40% doesn't seem conductive to growth in users at all.