As a European this comes as a huge relief, especially given the poorly-timed email leak (with Russian names in the metadata).
Here's to hoping that Europe can continue working together and begin to reform itself, and not tear itself apart like some of our American 'allies' on the (alt-)right would like.
Lots of challenges ahead, but we wouldn't want it to be too easy now would we?
You seem to assume that without the EU, european countries would no longer cooperate and trade with each other. I don't see that happening. The European Economic Area (EEA) and the Schengen treaty exist independently from the EU. Norway and Switzerland are not members of the EU, yet they trade perfectly fine with others.
The EU is simply not necessary for free trade; nor is free trade its main goal. The EU as it is right now is becoming the next Sovient Union. A undemocratic, centralised, bureaucratic superstate that strips the people from their sovereignty, independence, cultural and ethnic traditions. What the EU is trying to do has been done in the past and it has failed.
As a European I see this as a huge concern. Choosing Macron means keeping the status quo, which means continued mass immigration, continued bad economic policy, etc... in Europe. I am sure the bankers will be glad as will the European Commission and the multinationals, but the common people will become disillusioned in a few years as more and more terrorist attacks will happen into Europe and the problems with the economic policy if the EU will become more visible (the mass printing of money by Draghi and forcing countries buy bad bonds to cover this pyramid scheme).
But -for me personally- I'd say it's a good thing. As I stated before, choosing Macron means keeping up with the status quo and I intend to leave Europe for Asia next year (I have an Asian girlfriend and daughter). I do realise that if Le Pen would be chosen now there would be unrest in the Economic markets, the EU, etc... So for me personally it will be a good time to just make a bit more money before leaving permanently.
In the end the choice for Macron will only delay the inevitable though. The EU is dead, it just doesn't realise it yet. The only problem is: the longer it takes for the EU to collapse, the messier it will become.
Any 12 year old kiddie can change meta data on files. Faking meta data to place false clues is intelligence service 101 as documented by many NSA/CIA leaks.
HN will likely rejoice. Macron is putting a lot of faith in startups to jumpstart back the french economy. I think it's wise: France has great schools to train great engineers, but there's still this stigma that it's almost impossible to have your own tech company in France unless you're ready to deal with massive paperwork. I have no idea how true it is, but Macron clearly wants to change this mentality.
It also goes to another level. Traditionally (since the 50s), engineering in France has largely been lead by large, ambitious and state funded projects and organizations. Think for instance Concorde, TGV, EDF, INRIA, etc. I have always liked this gaullist mentality: it has benefited the majority of the population and I tend to believe it has been helpful in making France a major post WW2 superpower.
But lately it may not have worked so well: for instance, many regional airports have been built at high cost, and yet many of them are almost empty. Perhaps then, resource allocation is the problem. In this regard, Macron is influenced by the american model where eg. Bell Labs, Elon Musk, Silicon Valley behemoths, etc. decide by themselves what shall be built and the state has little to no regard in the orientations of these organizations.
We'll see. I'm glad Macron has won and hope his plan works out.
Speaking as someone who has had companies in various countries (Japan, China, Hong Kong and France). The paperwork and complexities in France are by far the worst. Even China with it's love of red tape is at least relatively well organized and not to difficult to navigate.
In France, you get to deal with organizations like the RSI and URSSAF which are incredibly incompetent, frequently make mistake, do not have phone numbers that can be called from abroad (which is extremely inconvenient when traveling for business) and have Bizantine rules.
I would never create a company again in France because the system is completely broken. I really hope that Macron follows through on solving this. I believe that it's a priority.
I can't deny it uplifted my mood quite a bit. The nationalist wave didn't flip France head enough, which is always good. It's just a start, a new hope.
It's a mixed picture though isn't it? I mean France and Germany may be fine but the same cannot be said for southern EU, which has decades long, seemingly intractable economic difficulties e.g. Mezzorgiono. I don't see that the EU has magically transformed such regions, and I suppose you can argue about the EU's ability to influence such situations, but on the other hand I don't think the Euro has helped matters.
Actually it wouldn't have been. What most people will discover (though I think most French nationals are well aware), is that the president has very little power in France unless he also controls the parliament. Which Le Pen was guaranteed not to achieve. And which will still be a long shot for Macron. Had Le Pen been elected, she would have been reduced pretty much to the role of a queen of England. With nuclear firepower but very little means to create trouble in the EU.
If Sarkozy didn't change the regime of Libya by bombing based on lies which are still under cover by main stream media, there might be no such an immigration wave caused by war and chaos. Today main stream media still try to avoid to associate their bias reports with the change in public opinion. It seems to me that main stream media is part of if not all of reasons caused such situation today.
For context, in the 2012 election, total votes in 2nd round was 34,861,353, out of a population of 66.81M (now). I couldn't find the total voting population easily.
It seems that Trump and Brexit may have been the high water mark for the wave of nationalism sweeping the west. 2017 has seen nationalist candidates fade and underperform their polls across the EU. Trump has made less actual policy progress towards his nationalist goals than perhaps many feared/expected.
Things were quite scary a few months ago. There are still things to be concerned about going forward, but politics ebbs and flows, and for now perhaps the flood waters are receding.
The most successful peace project on European soil of the last 1000 years can continue.
Naysayers of the EU need to learn history. It is worth every penny, every inch of inconvenience.
TWO fucking world wars were started by Europe, by nations that formed the Coal/Steel Union after 45 and now enjoy the longest, uninterrupted period of peace since, like, EVER.
The EU's economy is the largest in the world.
You don't fuck with that.
Except if you're British and can't stomach the end of your empire.
Not quite, but it's big. The EU is $17T. The US is $18.5T.
But I agree that you shouldn't fuck with that especially for the reasons that Le Pen and the Brexiters had.
It might be a little too simplistic to credit the EU for 70 years of peace.
There is no major conflict directly involving two major powers for many decades (1945/WW2, or 1952/korean war if considering that China was a major power at that time, which is generous IMHO).
That's not limited to Europe, this statement is valid for the whole world.
Several factors can explain it:
* Better living conditions (far less frequent famines, less large scale epidemics, etc), mostly due to industrialization of many countries and consequently less tensions inside and between countries over resources.
* For a part, economic dependencies between countries.
* MAD, but also the realization after WW2 that a major conflict, using modern weapons, even only conventional ones, can only lead to both sides actually losing.
* Better worldwide coordination through the UN (imperfect, yet it helps).
* Better education for large parts of the world population.
* More pacifist views and reject of war.
This is still oversimplifying why there is this unprecedented peaceful period, but it shows the CECA/CEE/EU is far from being the only factor at play.
Trolling? Regardless, Firstly I'd say the EU was secondary to the US and USSR/latterly Russia in controlling war in Europe. Secondly I suppose I could lower myself to your tone by making the point that the UK is a nuclear weapons state and generally you don't f with that either, and lastly most people in the UK don't care about the empire, and the topic usually seems to be raised by people having a pop at the UK.
so the peace was nothing to do with the fact the USSR had several million troops, tens of thousands of nuclear weapons and a few thousand tanks 10 miles away?
former largest economy: after brexit the EU27 economy will be smaller than the US
Polls close at 7pm except in larger cities, but counting of votes start at this time. It's forbidden to leak the results until 8pm, at which time the sample is large enough to give a precise estimate, unlikely to move by much.
Estimate of voting booth all around. Probably gonna shift a bit until midnight but not by much and surely not enough to modify the results; and so far it seems Macron is going from 65.1 to 65.5.
Not that much of a mauling by FN standards, when her father reached the 2nd round in 2002 he got 18%, that's a serious improvement of the party's result.
Nothing juicy in the emails it seems - so what possible benefit is there for the leaker? Could it be bragging? Increasing fear of hacking? Implying that Le Pen was in cahoots with the Russians?
Clearly if it was supposed to help Le Pen it didn't work.
Wouldn't surprise me if some "fake news" based on the emails was getting pushed via social media while the main media was forced to not cover anything.
If they had anything even vaguely plausible, they'd have released it earlier.
[+] [-] orf|8 years ago|reply
Here's to hoping that Europe can continue working together and begin to reform itself, and not tear itself apart like some of our American 'allies' on the (alt-)right would like.
Lots of challenges ahead, but we wouldn't want it to be too easy now would we?
[+] [-] sparkling|8 years ago|reply
The EU is simply not necessary for free trade; nor is free trade its main goal. The EU as it is right now is becoming the next Sovient Union. A undemocratic, centralised, bureaucratic superstate that strips the people from their sovereignty, independence, cultural and ethnic traditions. What the EU is trying to do has been done in the past and it has failed.
[+] [-] wsc981|8 years ago|reply
But -for me personally- I'd say it's a good thing. As I stated before, choosing Macron means keeping up with the status quo and I intend to leave Europe for Asia next year (I have an Asian girlfriend and daughter). I do realise that if Le Pen would be chosen now there would be unrest in the Economic markets, the EU, etc... So for me personally it will be a good time to just make a bit more money before leaving permanently.
In the end the choice for Macron will only delay the inevitable though. The EU is dead, it just doesn't realise it yet. The only problem is: the longer it takes for the EU to collapse, the messier it will become.
[+] [-] sparkling|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Boothroid|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] lindbergh|8 years ago|reply
It also goes to another level. Traditionally (since the 50s), engineering in France has largely been lead by large, ambitious and state funded projects and organizations. Think for instance Concorde, TGV, EDF, INRIA, etc. I have always liked this gaullist mentality: it has benefited the majority of the population and I tend to believe it has been helpful in making France a major post WW2 superpower.
But lately it may not have worked so well: for instance, many regional airports have been built at high cost, and yet many of them are almost empty. Perhaps then, resource allocation is the problem. In this regard, Macron is influenced by the american model where eg. Bell Labs, Elon Musk, Silicon Valley behemoths, etc. decide by themselves what shall be built and the state has little to no regard in the orientations of these organizations.
We'll see. I'm glad Macron has won and hope his plan works out.
[+] [-] song|8 years ago|reply
In France, you get to deal with organizations like the RSI and URSSAF which are incredibly incompetent, frequently make mistake, do not have phone numbers that can be called from abroad (which is extremely inconvenient when traveling for business) and have Bizantine rules.
I would never create a company again in France because the system is completely broken. I really hope that Macron follows through on solving this. I believe that it's a priority.
[+] [-] user5994461|8 years ago|reply
EDF => National electricity grid.
INRIA => National research center.
They are big national companies, at the intersection of massive public funding and fields that cannot be outsourced.
That's the only sort of companies that strive in the French environment.
[+] [-] agumonkey|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] jstoja|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] ue_|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] easilyBored|8 years ago|reply
As bad as EU is, eventually they will get along just fine...or a least just as United States of America do.
[+] [-] AlexeyBrin|8 years ago|reply
The difference is that in USA they speak the same language and even this way they are not as homogenous as they seem from outside.
In Europe you have huge economical and cultural differences between certain states, bad blood for historical reasons between some nations and so on.
[+] [-] Boothroid|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] cm2187|8 years ago|reply
Actually it wouldn't have been. What most people will discover (though I think most French nationals are well aware), is that the president has very little power in France unless he also controls the parliament. Which Le Pen was guaranteed not to achieve. And which will still be a long shot for Macron. Had Le Pen been elected, she would have been reduced pretty much to the role of a queen of England. With nuclear firepower but very little means to create trouble in the EU.
[+] [-] RobertoG|8 years ago|reply
If the current policies at the French and European level don't change, we are just winning a few years.
Macron is probably the candidate less inclined to change those policies.
[+] [-] mlcdf|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] jjcc|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] easilyBored|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] sparkling|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] glandium|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] grogenaut|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] bkjelden|8 years ago|reply
Things were quite scary a few months ago. There are still things to be concerned about going forward, but politics ebbs and flows, and for now perhaps the flood waters are receding.
[+] [-] pottersbasilisk|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] pinaceae|8 years ago|reply
Naysayers of the EU need to learn history. It is worth every penny, every inch of inconvenience.
TWO fucking world wars were started by Europe, by nations that formed the Coal/Steel Union after 45 and now enjoy the longest, uninterrupted period of peace since, like, EVER.
The EU's economy is the largest in the world. You don't fuck with that. Except if you're British and can't stomach the end of your empire.
[+] [-] CalChris|8 years ago|reply
Not quite, but it's big. The EU is $17T. The US is $18.5T. But I agree that you shouldn't fuck with that especially for the reasons that Le Pen and the Brexiters had.
[+] [-] kakwa_|8 years ago|reply
There is no major conflict directly involving two major powers for many decades (1945/WW2, or 1952/korean war if considering that China was a major power at that time, which is generous IMHO).
That's not limited to Europe, this statement is valid for the whole world.
Several factors can explain it:
* Better living conditions (far less frequent famines, less large scale epidemics, etc), mostly due to industrialization of many countries and consequently less tensions inside and between countries over resources.
* For a part, economic dependencies between countries.
* MAD, but also the realization after WW2 that a major conflict, using modern weapons, even only conventional ones, can only lead to both sides actually losing.
* Better worldwide coordination through the UN (imperfect, yet it helps).
* Better education for large parts of the world population.
* More pacifist views and reject of war.
This is still oversimplifying why there is this unprecedented peaceful period, but it shows the CECA/CEE/EU is far from being the only factor at play.
[+] [-] Boothroid|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] blibble|8 years ago|reply
former largest economy: after brexit the EU27 economy will be smaller than the US
[+] [-] spiderfarmer|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] sbose78|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] lindbergh|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] agumonkey|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] iKenshu|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] s_kilk|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] masklinn|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] S4M|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] agumonkey|8 years ago|reply
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[+] [-] zouhair|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Boothroid|8 years ago|reply
Clearly if it was supposed to help Le Pen it didn't work.
[+] [-] ZeroGravitas|8 years ago|reply
If they had anything even vaguely plausible, they'd have released it earlier.
[+] [-] shafiqissani|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] kazinator|8 years ago|reply
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