[nzonbi]

Interesting article, in a difficult topic. Speculating about the future of deep learning. The author deserves recognition for writing about this. In my personal opinion, within the next 10 years, there will be systems exhibiting basic general intelligence behavior. I am currently doing early hobbist research on it, and I see it as feasible. These system will not be very powerful initially. They will exist and work in simpler simulated environments. Eventually we will be able to make these systems powerful enough to handle the real world. Although that will probably not be easy.

I somewhat disagree with the author. I don't think that deep learning systems of the future are going to generate "programs", composed of programming primitives. In my speculative view, the key for general intelligence is not very far from our current knowledge. Deep learning, as currently we have, is a good enough basic tool. There are no magic improvements to the current deep learning algorithms, hidden around the corner. Rather what I think will enable general intelligence, is assembling systems of deep learning networks in the right setup. Some of the structure of these systems will be similar to traditional programs. But the models they generate will not resemble computer programs. They will be more like data graphs.

I expect within 10 years there will be computer agents capable of communicating in simplified, but functional languages. Full human language capability will come after that. And within 20 years I expect artificial general intelligence to exist. At least in a basic form. That is my personal view. I am currently working on this.

[LrnByTeach]

20 year time frame that is around 2040 for AGI Artificial General Intelligence in the it's BASIC Form seems in line with many experts in this filed.

> I expect within 10 years there will be computer agents capable of communicating in simplified, but functional languages. Full human language capability will come after that. And within 20 years I expect artificial general intelligence to exist. At least in a basic form. That is my personal view. I am currently working on this.

[Berobero]

> 20 year time frame ... seems in line with many experts in this filed

When has "20 years" not been in line with the predictions of experts for the advent of AGI?

[ColanR]

what kind of research have you done on this? Most of what I hear about this is more pessimistic than anything else. I'm curious what you've learned that's made you optimistic.

[nzonbi]

I am working on creating basic artificial general intelligence. My research is still early, and I don't want to give much details for now. For example, in my opinion it is wrong to feed a giant neural network with tons of text, and expect it to understand human language. That will never work. Language understanding requires a grasp of a world where the agent exist first. A general understanding of things. Then, on top of that, it can build basic communication. And then it can be hoped that this communication can become sophisticated enough, to reach human language level.

Another example: Feeding a neural network with millions of product reviews, and expect it to be capable to understand and write product reviews is hopelessly laughable. Not even with petabytes of data.

I started working on this, because I think that not enough focus is being put on AGI, or research is not creative enough. At least not that is being published. I am optimist with my work, and soon I will reveal more. But even if I don't reach my goals, I think that it is just a matter of persistence. At any moment, someone will solve the problem of AGI.