KIN registers its Facebook app on Facebook, where anybody can actually see the total number of monthly active users of the application. The KIN Facebook app is only available on KIN devices and can only be used by people who have KIN devices. So how many people are actually using KIN devices that are connected to Facebook? 8,810 as of right now.
There are about 2000 Verizon stores (http://www.vzwcareers.com/Why/Test.aspx?lid=//careers//why+v...), and I bet each one had an activated KIN on display. So that brings the number down to 6810. Subtract from that people who returned their phones within the 30 day window (I don't think the return deactivates the Facebook app).
But even if the real number were 8800, or even 88,000, that's nowhere near the 1 million+ Apple did on the first day for iPhone 4, or even the 500,000 estimated HTC EVOs sold.
The actual number of units sold isn't nearly as important as how quickly Microsoft decided to cancel the product. Imagine that you are a really rich guy who bought up 100% of Microsoft shares six months ago with the goal of maximizing NPV over a long time horizon. You have a carrier agreement to launch a Microsoft branded phone, but you're pretty sure that the phone you've developed sucks. You have to worry about your relationship with your carrier and customer perception. Two choices are obvious. You can negotiate with the carrier to cancel the agreement. Some sort of exclusive on Windows 7 Phone Edition might sweeten the deal. Consumers will never really know that you'd promised a phone. Or, you can invest in remediation steps to make the phone not suck so badly to save your brand's reputation (or what's left of it).
What Microsoft did makes no sense. Now, I can't trust that Microsoft will support their products for longer than it takes them to get their first screen scratches. And, how could a carrier consider entering into future agreements with Microsoft when this one led to so much public embarrassment? That such a decision was made suggests significant internal managerial distress (to be euphemistic).
8,810 is far, far more than 503. Many folks are saying that it is still far too low a number for the difference to matter. Bollocks! As long as we're trading rumours, an anonymous Microsoftie complained that the entire cost for Kin (including the Danger acquisition, R&D, marketing, and so forth) was a billion dollars.
$1,000,000,000 divided by 503 units is $1,988,071.57 per unit. Call it two million dollars.
$1,000,000,000 divided by 8,810 units is a mere $113,507.38. Call it a hundred grand.
From where I'm standing, losing two million dollars per unit is a lot more than losing a hundred grand per unit. Let's give Microsoft some credit for keeping losses at such a manageable level. Who knows, when the final numbers come out they might have managed to lose even less, maybe as little as fifty grand per unit!
How is losses per unit sold relevant to anything? Overall profits or losses are what matter. I don't know how much Microsoft made off each one, so I'll be generous and guess $400 average revenue after subsidy payments.
The DF article said they sold 503 devices "before they pulled the plug." I'm sure MS didn't go around getting all the un-sold devices back from vendors -- they continued selling their stock. It's just that 503 devices were sold when MS decided to kill the program.
Yes. Unless this is going to be one of those "Atari 2600 E.T. cartridge" situations -- where you find a reason to dig a giant hole in the desert and bury all your warehoused stock -- every Kin that was manufactured is going to end up being turned on somewhere, somehow, at some price. And surely they manufactured far more than a few thousand.
I've no idea how many units Microsoft actually sold, but just wanted to point out the active accounts does not equal units sold. There are probably several thousand units activated for development, testing, marketing, and point of sales demonstration.
I've seen Microsoft brag about how popular Silverlight is because of the number of downloads. I myself have downloaded the installer at least 10 times on various machines trying to get some demos working, and I've always had problems during installation. I wonder how many "users" Microsoft thinks I am, since I currently don't have a single working installation.
edit: In case it isn't clear, my point is that there's a lot of ways that number can be inaccurate and bloated. How many prototypes and test devices are there? How many demos?
A valid point about how they count Silverlight users, but this case is different because you won't have a single user "downloading" multiple instances of the phone hardware.
All my Linux computers count as happy Windows users because all of them were sold with Windows installed.
They obviously tweak their numbers to save face. They must do it at all levels and the fact this ill-conceived aberration actually made into production and hit the market must have involved some pretty heavy sugarcoating of actual numbers.
It's a charlie-foxtrot, no matter how you look at it.
503, 8,810, this is all proof of Prince's point: "all these computers and digital gadgets . . . just fill your head with numbers and that can't be good for you."
Whatever is going to happen to KIN's real person, Rosa?
Someone pointed out in a previous thread that HTTP status code 503 is "service unavailable". I think the 503 number is just a prank, and apparently a very successful one.
The daring fireball article did say "sold". Other comments here have indicated that Verizon were giving the units away just to get rid of them. Maybe they didn't pay MS for those. Who knows what was in their contract. Maybe MS decided to scrap the deal 2 months ago and told Verizon to dump its stock. Until Microsoft releases its Official Kin Sales Report, it's all just speculation.
I am inclined to believe Gruber. If he stakes his reputation (very important to his massively inflated ego) on a specific number, it means he's satisfied it's correct, and that's a pretty strong vote in my book. Could be wrong of course but in the absence of hard evidence I go by gut & human nature...
I have no problem believing Gruber believes it. And I have no problem believing whoever told Gruber believes it. And no offense to your gut... but there are just too many ways for numbers like these to be messed up. Maybe it was 503 on opening day. Maybe it was 503 for the state of California. Maybe someone at MS who wanted to politically annihilate the kin team and leaked some false numbers to someone honest who took them at face value. But 503 never seemed remotely plausible to my gut. As others have said, it seems like MS employees would have bought more than that. 8,000 kins on facebook - ~2,000 display models still seems like an embarrassingly small number, but at least it exists in the realms of plausibility.
I wouldn't say Gruber "stake[d] his reputation" on the number. Here is what he said:
> I can’t vouch for the following, but a well-placed little birdie told me over the weekend that they sold a grand total of 503 Kins before they pulled the plug. 503.
That phrasing does not put absolute confidence in the number. It is very possible he was misinformed. But 8000 (as pointed out, a probably over inflated number) is still pathetic.
Damn, ok so basically we just silenced the 503 rumor and replaced it with 8800 copies. That is an even bigger flop because now its not a rumor. Unless they sold over 100,000 items they are fucked.
[+] [-] byoung2|15 years ago|reply
There are about 2000 Verizon stores (http://www.vzwcareers.com/Why/Test.aspx?lid=//careers//why+v...), and I bet each one had an activated KIN on display. So that brings the number down to 6810. Subtract from that people who returned their phones within the 30 day window (I don't think the return deactivates the Facebook app).
But even if the real number were 8800, or even 88,000, that's nowhere near the 1 million+ Apple did on the first day for iPhone 4, or even the 500,000 estimated HTC EVOs sold.
[+] [-] jonknee|15 years ago|reply
Not to mention other outlets like BestBuy that sell Verizon products.
[+] [-] kenjackson|15 years ago|reply
[+] [-] miin|15 years ago|reply
[+] [-] ShabbyDoo|15 years ago|reply
What Microsoft did makes no sense. Now, I can't trust that Microsoft will support their products for longer than it takes them to get their first screen scratches. And, how could a carrier consider entering into future agreements with Microsoft when this one led to so much public embarrassment? That such a decision was made suggests significant internal managerial distress (to be euphemistic).
[+] [-] raganwald|15 years ago|reply
$1,000,000,000 divided by 503 units is $1,988,071.57 per unit. Call it two million dollars.
$1,000,000,000 divided by 8,810 units is a mere $113,507.38. Call it a hundred grand.
From where I'm standing, losing two million dollars per unit is a lot more than losing a hundred grand per unit. Let's give Microsoft some credit for keeping losses at such a manageable level. Who knows, when the final numbers come out they might have managed to lose even less, maybe as little as fifty grand per unit!
[+] [-] zweben|15 years ago|reply
1,000,000,000 - ($400 x 503) = $999,798,800 lost
1,000,000,000 - ($400 x 8810) = $996,476,000 lost
The difference is negligible.
[+] [-] nose|15 years ago|reply
[+] [-] roadnottaken|15 years ago|reply
[+] [-] mechanical_fish|15 years ago|reply
[+] [-] commieneko|15 years ago|reply
[+] [-] eli|15 years ago|reply
[+] [-] TallGuyShort|15 years ago|reply
edit: In case it isn't clear, my point is that there's a lot of ways that number can be inaccurate and bloated. How many prototypes and test devices are there? How many demos?
[+] [-] markkanof|15 years ago|reply
[+] [-] rbanffy|15 years ago|reply
They obviously tweak their numbers to save face. They must do it at all levels and the fact this ill-conceived aberration actually made into production and hit the market must have involved some pretty heavy sugarcoating of actual numbers.
It's a charlie-foxtrot, no matter how you look at it.
[+] [-] ulvund|15 years ago|reply
* how many were given away for free
* what was the time of the '503 sales'-report :)
[+] [-] alanh|15 years ago|reply
[+] [-] thought_alarm|15 years ago|reply
[+] [-] PostOnce|15 years ago|reply
X,600,000,000.00 rather than 6,600,000,000.X0
Big difference :P
[+] [-] st3fan|15 years ago|reply
[+] [-] adolph|15 years ago|reply
Whatever is going to happen to KIN's real person, Rosa?
They are already disappearing her from Hulu: http://www.hulu.com/watch/148231/rosas-journey-intro
[+] [-] JabavuAdams|15 years ago|reply
[+] [-] chaostheory|15 years ago|reply
[+] [-] rbanffy|15 years ago|reply
[+] [-] unknown|15 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] sailormoon|15 years ago|reply
I am inclined to believe Gruber. If he stakes his reputation (very important to his massively inflated ego) on a specific number, it means he's satisfied it's correct, and that's a pretty strong vote in my book. Could be wrong of course but in the absence of hard evidence I go by gut & human nature...
[+] [-] rauljara|15 years ago|reply
[+] [-] macrael|15 years ago|reply
> I can’t vouch for the following, but a well-placed little birdie told me over the weekend that they sold a grand total of 503 Kins before they pulled the plug. 503.
That phrasing does not put absolute confidence in the number. It is very possible he was misinformed. But 8000 (as pointed out, a probably over inflated number) is still pathetic.
[+] [-] GrandMasterBirt|15 years ago|reply
[+] [-] glhaynes|15 years ago|reply
[+] [-] gcb|15 years ago|reply
[+] [-] binaryfinery|15 years ago|reply
Or by the people who wrote it. Microsoft.