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Young People Need Another Gold Rush

73 points| pdog | 8 years ago |bloomberg.com | reply

104 comments

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[+] pavel_lishin|8 years ago|reply
> This lack of opportunities could create more pessimism and disaffection than economic conditions warrant. An increasing body of economic research shows that people tend to form extrapolative expectations -- they expect recent trends to continue forever. Overoptimism is also a common psychological bias. Booms make a lot of young, energetic Americans believe that they’re going to get rich. On the one hand, this causes inevitable disappointment when the froth dissipates. But as long as there’s a gold rush somewhere in the economy, big dreamers can dream big.

So America needs another slot machine we can present to our youth to appease their cognitive biases?

[+] ihsw2|8 years ago|reply
It is a concept as old as Ancient Rome itself -- bread and circuses.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bread_and_circuses

Superficial means of appeasement, distractions, diversions, or the mere satisfaction of the immediate, shallow requirements of a populace. These things have been a staple of peace since time immemorial.

> This phrase originates from Rome in Satire X of the Roman satirical poet Juvenal (circa A.D. 100). In context, the Latin panem et circenses (bread and circuses) identifies the only remaining cares of a Roman populace which no longer cares for its historical birthright of political involvement. Here Juvenal displays his contempt for the declining heroism of contemporary Romans, using a range of different themes including lust for power and desire for old age to illustrate his argument.[5] Roman politicians passed laws in 140 B.C. to keep the votes of poorer citizens, by introducing a grain dole: giving out cheap food and entertainment, "bread and circuses", became the most effective way to rise to power.

Humanity generally waxes and wanes between bread and circuses and political involvement. One could feasibly say they are diametrically opposed, but suffice to say it should to be clear that the pendulum has swung from the former to the latter and it will be difficult to reverse it forcefully.

[+] sametmax|8 years ago|reply
My thoughts exactly. You can't base a person/nation's health on extraordinary events. The article sounds a lot like saying "ohhh, I'm hangover, better drink more so that I don't suffer from it".

This is one of the things that are very wrong with a lot of people in charges: they want magical solutions, quick fixes for the next elections.

It's true the real solutions, the long term ones, the ones that matter most, are hard to set up right: education, research, building trust, leading by example...

And it's far easier to sell a new gold rush: people love those stories, it gives hope, it's fun and simple to comprehend. Even better, it puts the blame on the people instead of the leaders since if they don't live the great life, it's because they failed to grab the opportunity. The American dream in essence.

The fact that there can be only so many gold rushes, so many factions that will have the control of it (and the others can go to hell), and so many people from those factions that will actually benefit from those are not issues that will occur to the minds of the targets of this strategy. It's why it's such a good one.

[+] nsxwolf|8 years ago|reply
Perhaps we should find ways of making them feel good about living in tent cities?
[+] mc32|8 years ago|reply
Yeah, WTF, the dotcom and post financial meltdown recoveries were great, but, looking back at the 70s, the 80s and early 90s, I don't think people thought "optimism". If anything, we were in the midst of the full swing into rust belting of the Midwest, Detroit was under heavy attack and in debt fighting off foreign rivals, and the whole Wolf of Wall-Street 80s syndrome.

WTF, do today's kids just expect things to land on their laps?

That said, I know lots of people in near blue collar jobs who do work hard and don't take things for granted and don't carry a woe is me attitude. So, not everyone lacks resilience.

[+] bpodgursky|8 years ago|reply
A lot of research shows that forcing yourself to smile makes you happier.
[+] golergka|8 years ago|reply
As long as people have biases, we need to appease them, yes.
[+] quxbar|8 years ago|reply
This article should be titled 'almost all remaining economic opportunity has been systematically monopolized by large corporations'
[+] sametmax|8 years ago|reply
Which is completely false, and have been said for ever from people not seeing opportunities or unwilling to pay the price for them.

I get a new business opportunity every month. The fact that I'm not a millionaire is not because of the lack of it, but because I failed in some way I could clearly see after the fact.

[+] alextheparrot|8 years ago|reply
I don't know about others, but growing up during the recession made me extremely defensive in terms of my risk taking and spending. I view risk as a luxury that is bought, buying the ability to mitigate the personal downsides. A gold rush is a bandaid, a lottery winners dream, to create the freedom to take risk.

I know, risk is something that is most easily taken by the young, the uninhibited, the unindentured, but many of us are indentured to loans, inhibited by our memories, and too busy trying to get old safely to act young.

[+] lithos|8 years ago|reply
Reads a little like "we need people to sell shovels and gold pans to, while simultanously keeping the young distracted enough to stay out of our politics".
[+] pm90|8 years ago|reply
When has that NOT been the case? :)

Until WW1, war was seen as a part of life, and for serving in the military was seen as brave, noble thing for young men to do. Even now, we expect most young people to start at the bottom and move up "through hard work" while the scions of the rich start at great positions and build a career without ever having to do minimum wage (exception is certain careers that require skills and are booming, such as technology).

And while the young people are struggling to meet ends meet, they have even less time for politics, participation etc.

[+] pavel_lishin|8 years ago|reply
"Keep Calm and Continue Sacrificing Your Young To Mammon"
[+] adventured|8 years ago|reply
If we're talking about America's youth, they need three things.

1) A functional healthcare system like any of the other half a dozen good alternative approaches in other developed nations.

2) For the government to stop inflating the cost of education by enabling universities to raise their prices outside of market forces (eg income growth) via perpetually greater government loan backing. Compare the median income vs median tuition costs, just from the late 1990s vs today, the government made that imbalance possible. For a century the US had very reasonably priced universities (40 years ago you could pay for an Ivy League education with a part-time job), that ended in the very early 2000s when the government inflation run took off (exactly in tandem with healthcare inflation and dollar debasement under the Bush Administration, which you can see represented in the commodity bubbles, housing, gold and the dollar GDP of every other nation soaring simultaneously from the year 2001 to 2008).

3) Significantly improved cities. More people from rural America need to be encouraged to move into urban centers, to resolve the opportunity & quality of life gap (such as falling life expectancy in rural US) that is widening between the two. That includes improving infrastructure, transportation, and available housing supply (entailing, among other things, pushing back against overly aggressive zoning laws used to restrict housing). Urban improvement / renewal, would benefit basically every demographic, including poor black communities that are being persistently hammered by extreme violence.

A possible #4 candidate, would be to continue ending the war on drugs, shifting to treating addiction as a health matter and decriminalizing or legalizing all drugs. Sentencing reform and police reform would also go with that item.

Doing these things would radically improve the circumstances for America's youth as a whole.

[+] weddpros|8 years ago|reply
"If we're talking about America's youth": 1 & 3 (to a lesser degree) are not about youth, but about elders... because young people don't need as much healthcare and their life expectancy isn't a problem until they age.
[+] corporateslave3|8 years ago|reply
So bigger government is the solution? All of those are manifestations of a communist/socialist society.
[+] QAPereo|8 years ago|reply
I'll be honest the only time I've heard the word "Strivers" it was being used to mock just the kind of patronizing mindset found in this article. I'm sure it would be lovely to rest on an economic boom created by a risky new venture filled with young "expendables'" in the same way that some people pine for a world war to stiffen up the economy; it borders on evil.
[+] chamza|8 years ago|reply
As a millennial, I have observed a few perceived 'gold rushes' for individuals in my age group (25) and younger. I am defining 'gold rush' as an exponential growth of capital:

-Creating a technology startup / business

-Becoming YouTube famous and selling 'your own brand'

-Bitcoin, Ethereum, Cryptocurrencies

[+] dwild|8 years ago|reply
Yeah, I remember talking about the Ethereum boom that happened recently with my significant other and without even mentioning anything about it, she was interested in investing in it.

I personally didn't feel like it was a good idea so we didn't but it was like the Gold Rush. She was ready to rush into it.

[+] hungerstrike|8 years ago|reply
The fledgling Marijuana industry might be one candidate.

I know a few different people who quit jobs in finance to go do a marijuana-related startup.

[+] sergefaguet|8 years ago|reply
What a load of garbage. The world is awash in opportunity - biotech, genetics, AI, fledging nanotechnology, robotics/drones and other things that will transform us into posthumans in 50-100 years. The greatest fortunes in history will be created in this period.

Whiny idiots will complain though. As they always had.

[+] googletazer|8 years ago|reply
How many people can realistically grasp those? Or even be worker drones in those industries? ~30% of people are unable to grasp material beyond Gr 8 math. There is a huge problem looming on the horizon - human obsolescence.
[+] Torai|8 years ago|reply
> But as long as there’s a gold rush somewhere in the economy, big dreamers can dream big.

As long as there’s a gold rush somewhere in the economy, people will focus on getting rich without thinking if they are doing is sustainable and long term positive for the economy, without thinking if structural changes are needed to secure their well-being, which is correlated to the general well-being.

[+] tarboreus|8 years ago|reply
There was a plastics gold rush in the '60s because of the massive investment in R&D and basic research made in the first part of the 20th century, due in no small part to the world wars. There was an internet gold rush in the 90s and the aughts because of the investment made by the US in programs at DARPA and Bell Labs, a public monopoly. You can't have these kinds of non-zero sum "gold rushes" without laying the groundwork through new understandings of the universe, or how to better organize society. Yet as a culture we glorify the Steve Jobses of the world that do the equivelant of carrying the letter from the mailbox to the house, forgetting that it was flown halfway around the world to be there in the first place.

Entrepreneurs don't create gold rushes. Scientists create gold rushes. Forward-looking politicians create gold rushes. Strange devils sitting alone in their rooms create gold rushes. But these rushes happen 20, 30, or 40 years after the initial investment is made.

So we're not going to see many gold rushes in the next few years. Sorry. Hope you have some rents to draw.

[+] mobilemidget|8 years ago|reply
cryptocurrency is not enough like another gold rush already?
[+] sosuke|8 years ago|reply
My perception is probably wrong but I see the cryptocurrency gold rush as already over. To mine bitcoins now is to already have lots of money on machinery or a botnet to steal the machinery to mine the bitcoins.

Do you feel that cryptocurrency is still available to the individual as a gold rush?

[+] vonnik|8 years ago|reply
Said a journalist working a 9-to-5 job by choice.
[+] gumby|8 years ago|reply
"Everything that can be invented already has been so soon the patent office can shut down"

The quote is apocryphal but sums up the article.

[+] nradov|8 years ago|reply
My high school physics teacher told me that during the first Internet bubble more students signed up for STEM electives and actually paid attention in class. Technical fields were exciting and lucrative. But when the crash hit students became disillusioned and lost interest in STEM again.
[+] scottlegrand2|8 years ago|reply
1. Launch adventurous Millennials into spaaaaaace!

2. ???

3. PROFIT!!!*

*For the companies that build rockets and launch them...

[+] sandworm101|8 years ago|reply
The young need something big to transfer relative wealth from the old. It is getting crazy. With rich people living into thier 90s those who inherit are generally already in thier 60s or even 70s. The family money is moving between retirement funds. Something like a gold rush would move that value into the hands of the 30 or 40-somethings where it might do something more.
[+] alphonsegaston|8 years ago|reply
It's called socialism, but it's anathema to American culture (by design). We're so bathed in delusions of our inherent affluence and power that we'll watch the wealthy suck actual blood from young people as we're surrounded by tent cities. And many still think they're "winning" because they can pay another rich person $3000 to live in a closet.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/shortcuts/2017/aug/21/am...

[+] losteverything|8 years ago|reply
To have another gold rush we have to slow down the flow of information. No longer can a man search for a better life, based on simple writings. Now, everything is validated or rejected before he can pack his bags and head west.

We are currently living in a gold rush.. Make something and sell it online. Or support those that do.

[+] danschumann|8 years ago|reply
It may be a ways away, but I'm excited for the space rush.. once medium and small size companies can afford space ships to explore the solar system, finding asteroids made of gold. That will be glorious.