This makes me nervous and I fear that Kim Jung Un will have to do something big in order to save face. I hope we make him feel that he has a non-violent way to posture for his people as that's really what this is all about: posturing.
Honestly I don't get this sentiment. NK isn't some rationalistic actor. The NK problem can never ever be solved by diplomatic resolve. This goes beyond mere saving face, or diplomacy. This is simply about maintaining and expanding power. That is sometimes you need to be confrontational. Sometimes you need to stop being Chamberlain, and start being Churchill. Preferably before it's too late.
What else is their development of nuclear arms about? NK is a signatory of the NPT. They broke their promise. They've broken their promise multiple times. What they're looking for isn't a resolution to their situation, if anything they want to prolong it as long as possible. What they actually want is to win, and emerge "victorious" in the face of US "oppression".
Personally I think while China's interests are in maintaining a peaceful region, we must be wary of the relationship between NK and China. As there is a possibility of another game being played. Perhaps China wants to annex NK.
No, it's all about him developing a nuclear deterrent that will guarantee the survival of his regime and its ability to extort aid from other countries.
He can't actually do anything serious, because he understands that this instance it will be over. His power is only in menacing the world, like the dog barking on a leash. If he crosses the line he loses it. The world had to start pressuring North Korea long time ago. It must be an effort of all countries in the UN to make North Korea abandon its political regime and reunite South Korea. There should be all sorts of blockades, but also food humanitarian help. There should be programs helping people leave NK, amnesty programs for all officials who give up etc. That sort of large scale global pressure, and it had to start 20 years ago, when they only started nuclear development. But Russia and mostly China aren't helping and make all the effort futile, instead using NK in political games. And now we have horrible gang of people with nuclear weapons, ready to terrorize the world.
Almost certainly the Chinese alerted Kim of their plans and have talked it over with NK, so they probably have some sort of idea of what his response will be. Wouldn't surprise me if they hedged it in some way to make him feel more secure.
Will it really be enforceable though? It seems relatively easy for firms in China to change names, create shells, etc
If China can't effectively police their own fly-by-night domestic firms from doing by things like selling industrial salts as fake table salt, how likely is it they'll be able to shut down NK oriented firms, or even be aggressively inclined to investigate and enforce this order? That is, perhaps this is mostly for show to comply on paper with UN resolutions.
The enforcement of regulations in China is frighteningly efficient and effective, while the issue at hand is foremost in the minds of leaders. The government insists on retaining personal control over the country, and weakens the country's autonomous systems, which means it must spend some of a limited amount of attention to address any given issue. The moment the Eye of Sauron turns to look at a particular problem, everything immediately falls into order. The moment it turns away to something else, everyone gets up to their old shenanigans. It's the trade-off of retaining personal control.
In this case, these NK firms will certainly be a topic of focus, and likely remain so for quite a while.
It seems like KJU needs an enemy to stay in power to justify his rule, so he can’t back down on his nuclear program. But now the options are narrowing even more for him, and if he abdicated it doesn’t have anywhere to go. So he may just force a war...
NK has to balance on the knife edge between being threatening enough to get concessions but not so much other countries give up and ignore them (or level them).
KJU doesn’t seem to know how to walk that line, and didn’t have enough time to learn it from his father.
I’d say ‘we’re getting close to the end’ but no one who has ever made that prediction has been right. It’s too unique (especially with Trump now) to be able to get a good guess.
I've been wary about the Chinese gov's honesty after the economic reparations after THAAD deployment in Korea. (NK made nukes, so US deployed THAAD to defend against NK nukes, and PRC gov. got angry for some defense-only 'weapon')
Moreover, the Chinese gov. has been sending NK refugees back to NK, even though it knows those people won't end well.
But anyway, +1 for Chinese gov. on this stance - I guess this might be a start for a morally better China, a real Big Man country.
> NK nukes, and PRC gov. got angry for some defense-only 'weapon'
This "defense-only" weapon upsets the decade-old nuclear balance of M.A.D. because the THAAD radar is sensitivity and location weaken China's nuclear retaliatory ability.
I don't know about the economy at large, but this will certainly be more than an inconvenience to many of the Kim family's wealthy and influential friends.
I think it will. The regime gets much of the hard currency it needs to run the 'gift economy' from foreign operations.
These companies also form an excellent mechanism to maintain control. Many of them are labor providers; young NK men are conscripted to do logging in Siberia, gold mining in China and other such work. Their wages are sent back to Room 39 and any accumulation of despondent young men is eliminated.
Most of his behavior is junk behavior and can be ignored. Obviously, if he does something harmful, that should not be ignored, but most everything else can and should be. Give him no response that he can use to put in front of his people; Nothing he can use to spin to show how powerful he is. Ignore it. Take the control away from him.
But always keep an eye out for him doing something even remotely good and praise him for that. Send over food or whatever else his country may need. Reward the behavior you want to see. Ignore the behavior you don't.
Historically Korea had been a loyal vassal state of China for thousands of year. China had defended Korea against various barbarians from Mongolia plateau, Japan(multiple times) and America more recently.
The reason NK still exists is not USA's mercy or NK's nuke, it's because it's neighboring with China & Russia. Same thing applies to Vietnam.
[+] [-] gypsy_boots|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] thevardanian|8 years ago|reply
What else is their development of nuclear arms about? NK is a signatory of the NPT. They broke their promise. They've broken their promise multiple times. What they're looking for isn't a resolution to their situation, if anything they want to prolong it as long as possible. What they actually want is to win, and emerge "victorious" in the face of US "oppression".
Personally I think while China's interests are in maintaining a peaceful region, we must be wary of the relationship between NK and China. As there is a possibility of another game being played. Perhaps China wants to annex NK.
[+] [-] wildmusings|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] aquadrop|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] JustAnotherPat|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] zitterbewegung|8 years ago|reply
If we don't pressure him Kim Jong Un will have to do something be to get attention again.
[+] [-] sukulent|8 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] markwaldron|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] athenot|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] cromwellian|8 years ago|reply
If China can't effectively police their own fly-by-night domestic firms from doing by things like selling industrial salts as fake table salt, how likely is it they'll be able to shut down NK oriented firms, or even be aggressively inclined to investigate and enforce this order? That is, perhaps this is mostly for show to comply on paper with UN resolutions.
[+] [-] girzel|8 years ago|reply
In this case, these NK firms will certainly be a topic of focus, and likely remain so for quite a while.
[+] [-] adamnemecek|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] xir78|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] MBCook|8 years ago|reply
NK has to balance on the knife edge between being threatening enough to get concessions but not so much other countries give up and ignore them (or level them).
KJU doesn’t seem to know how to walk that line, and didn’t have enough time to learn it from his father.
I’d say ‘we’re getting close to the end’ but no one who has ever made that prediction has been right. It’s too unique (especially with Trump now) to be able to get a good guess.
[+] [-] crdoconnor|8 years ago|reply
The US with Trump at the helm seems perfectly happy to play the evil villain for him, throwing out telegenic threats of nuclear annihilation.
If Libya and Iraq prove anything it's not having a nuke program that's actually the greater risk, coz they'll just accuse you having one anyway...
>So he may just force a war
There's no point in doing that.
[+] [-] agumonkey|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] devdoomari|8 years ago|reply
Moreover, the Chinese gov. has been sending NK refugees back to NK, even though it knows those people won't end well.
But anyway, +1 for Chinese gov. on this stance - I guess this might be a start for a morally better China, a real Big Man country.
[+] [-] sangnoir|8 years ago|reply
This "defense-only" weapon upsets the decade-old nuclear balance of M.A.D. because the THAAD radar is sensitivity and location weaken China's nuclear retaliatory ability.
[+] [-] Veelox|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] DarronWyke|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] bgun|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] topspin|8 years ago|reply
These companies also form an excellent mechanism to maintain control. Many of them are labor providers; young NK men are conscripted to do logging in Siberia, gold mining in China and other such work. Their wages are sent back to Room 39 and any accumulation of despondent young men is eliminated.
[+] [-] astrodust|8 years ago|reply
It's quite an operation they've got going.
[+] [-] JustSomeNobody|8 years ago|reply
But always keep an eye out for him doing something even remotely good and praise him for that. Send over food or whatever else his country may need. Reward the behavior you want to see. Ignore the behavior you don't.
[+] [-] agumonkey|8 years ago|reply
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DyqUw0WYwoc
Interview of 2 ex-NorthKorean. It's informative (not much pathos or sensationalism even considering the context)
[+] [-] wildmusings|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] longcheng|8 years ago|reply
The reason NK still exists is not USA's mercy or NK's nuke, it's because it's neighboring with China & Russia. Same thing applies to Vietnam.
[+] [-] infowarrior|8 years ago|reply
[deleted]