[dlss]

If I am understanding this correctly:

1. My 1 year old cousin is likely to die somewhere between ~1.1 and 2 years old.

2. My 96 year old grandfather is likely to die somewhere between ~100 and ~2000(!) years old.

Naively I would have thought my 1 year old cousin would outlive my grandfather. I'm really glad I found this math to set me straight! Thank you OP!

[cjalmeida]

You forgot the big caveat. The math only makes sense in absence lifespan prior information.

You know the average lifespan of a person. You don't know the average lifespan of civ building species or one of a kind political constructions