"Teach a man to fish." I've learned a lot of good recipes from services like Blue Apron. Having the ingredients prepped the first time you embark on a new recipe makes it way more approachable.
For my wife and I, Blue Apron was cool for a few months! We'll probably sign up again at some point. (If it's still around...)
For us it was kind of like a "date night" thing three times a week. It was fun cooking the meals together. More fun than a restaurant really, because we still got to sit down and enjoy a nice meal.
We found the cost (about $10/person/meal) to be about halfway between buying our own groceries and dining out. If Blue Apron replaces dining out, it's actually sort of a money saver.
Groceries are expensive. We usually spend a little over $120 per week for food for two. Our dinners usually come out to like $4 or $5 per meal per person I think.[1] A decent restaurant, not fast food or Applebees... including tip and everything, I find we usually spend around at least $30 for two.
Why did we unsubscribe? Well, it is more expensive than groceries and we wanted to trim expenses even more. And my work schedule makes it hard for me to be home in time for us to cook together, which was half the fun. Also the portions were a bit small... though maybe that's just because my idea of a portion is too big.
_______________________________
[1] Now, before anybody says anything, yeah, I was a poor student once too. Trust me, I know how to eat a LOT cheaper than that. I remember making $20 last a whole week. Gotta load up on the eggs and rice. Ramen too, but if you're eating a ton of it you gotta throw away at least half of the flavor packets so you don't die of a sodium overdose. Maybe throw a few multivitamins down your throat once in a while too so you don't get scurvy. I actually sort of miss those days.
As a chef I'll never use a service such as this, but I can certainly see the value.
Have you seen what most people eat when single, and just want some food? It's abhorent.
I have more than a few bachelor friends(or those that use to be), and the food they consume is, well I'd say I wouldn't feed to my dog, but that doesn't quite cover it.
I know they are busy professionals, and I cannot honestly say I have eaten the most top quality foods myself when I have been tired, but they exist from day to day on those things.
What sort of restaurant serves meals this cheaply? Here in UK I have a subscription to Hello Fresh at £49 for 5 meals for 2 people. So.....let's make it a round £5/per meal/per person.
For £5 you can get.....a frozen burger and a pint of pepsi from a local pub? I can't think of any restaurant that would have starters this cheap, much less mains.
The demand for me is that it's fresh, delicious and I learn a lot about cooking while making it - it's been 100% worth the money so far.
If you live in a high-cost city like SF or NYC, it's only marginally more expensive than groceries for a similar meal.
I've started using Good Eggs for weekly dinner kits with my SO and have found the meals to be tasty, healthy, easy to prepare, easy to clean up, and we enjoy preparing the meal and sitting down to eat together.
We're both fortunate enough to be in high income professions, and the convenience is worth a few extra dollars/meal to us. It doesn't break the bank.
As for the restaurant comparison, sure we could get cheap takeout for $10 per person, but it wouldn't be anymore near as healthy, and it wouldn't involve any cooking together. A similar quality meal at a restaurant would probably be at least $15 per person.
The point being is that, there are people who value the convenience these kits provide. But I am dubious as to whether there are enough to justify Blue Apron's valuation.
My problem with blue apron is with all the waste/trash generated by their packaging. I tried their services and the recipes were ok — although for someone that likes to cook or is a more experienced cook, their service is not worth it.
It seems pretty crazy that a grocery store chain hasn’t implemented a service like that where you can pick it up on the way home for less money and with less waste.
I had this same concern after seeing what they send folks for one meal. I had reached out to Blue Apron with this concern (I didn't have a subscription) and they told me that they are (or will be?) implementing some recycling program for materials, but it sounded gimmicky since most of the packaging is things like plastic bags and foam.
Me and my SO ordered on and off for a few months, mostly just to try out new recipes and get ideas. Out of everything we tried we've only gone back to make 4 or 5 of the recipes on our own (without re-ordering that meal).
The waste is the biggest issue for me. The price point is a little high, but if you're not relying on it for every meal it's not terrible. The amount of cardboard and plastic that came in every box was absurd.
My wife's comment was "I can get all these ingredients at the local super market and there is a lot of prep work". If Blue apron or a like service had all the food ready to go into the oven/microwave we would of stuck with it. Since she still had to do all the chopping and prepping, it was a waste of time.
That's like saying "if puzzles came already put together people would buy more".
They are marketing their product at people that want to do the prep, the cooking, the whole deal, but don't know where to begin. I loved my few Blue Apron boxes that I got. It was exactly what I expected and wanted.
There is a market for what you describe, but it's not what they are trying to solve.
I'm not familiar with the presenter, but I found this "case-study" to be mostly filler. ie a case study by someone looking for things to say, but doesn't really understand the problem.
A summary of his critiques:
"They grew too quickly for their own good."
Ok, so his conclusions, they should've grown more slowly
"The giant Amazon entered the market and scared people away from them"
Being an even smaller company wouldn't have helped fight amazon. Being larger and in a sufficient position with high enough revenue to try to fight amazon or get negotiate better rates would've. But this exactly contradicts growing too fast]
"Don't buy a ranch"
This point is funny, and makes for a catch phrase, but buying that single ranch had no significant impact on their profits. They aren't succeeding or failing because of that ranch. It's something convenient to point to and say a cliche like "you're not focusing on your core competencies", but honestly that likely had a .001 percent impact on their actual business. And no I don't imaging 70% of their management team is focusing on that ranch at the expense of their core business.
This entire video feels like fluff, mad-money style analysis to me. And really gives no insights as to what is happening to their business.
Things I would've found interesting. Are they losing customers? Has growth stopped? What are competitors spending on marketing? What are competitors acquisition rates? How long does the average customer stay? Was it priced assuming it was long term customers, but customers actually only stay less than 1yr then move on? Are single people using it to learn cooking then leave? Do customers that leave, leave the industry or just move to another service? Are customers just hopping/rotating between multiple services?
Answers to those questions would provide some insight. this presentation really had nothing to me. The closest thing was the food safety issue, but again did that actually impact delivery rates? Or costs? is it just normal cost of doing business in produce/meat delivery?
Blue Apron has multiple problems. 1. Once they teach you cooking isn't hard you will do it on your own. 2. Most grocery stores of all levels have meal kits now. 3. If you buy a mandolin(knife skills are for tv shows and culinary school) and safety glove you can go from raw not chopped ingredients to plated hot meal in under 20 minutes..
> If you buy a mandolin(knife skills are for tv shows and culinary school)
I’m happy that a mandolin is working for you, but there is a lot more to knife skills than slicing - there are a lot of foods and cuts that a mandolin can’t do, and they aren’t difficult or unsafe. As long as you don’t feel a need to be as fast as a line chef, you can do pretty much any cut with about 5 minutes of practice.
Just cook your own food for a few months and you develop enough knife skills to never look back.
I don't even have fancy knives--ever--I buy the $3 knives from the Asian grocery store. They dull after a few months, and sometimes I sharpen, sometimes I toss.
Nah, I was much faster with a knife and a bit of practice than with a mandolin, and mandolins can only do certain things. I liked the mandolin but it was also a pain to clean vs a knife.
I forgot where I read this, but Blue Apron spends a ton on customer acquisition, though non-traditional media channels.
I listen to several podcasts (Bill Burr and Joe Rogan represent) and every single episode they got an ad plugging Blue Apron - except they recently yanked their spots on Burr's podcast because he joked around too much.
They're probably banking on LTV of their customers, but it just doesn't make sense when a lot of your customers cancel after 6 months and it costs 400 dollars in marketing expenses to acquire each one.
I just don't see a sustainable business model. The food industry is remarkably cutthroat, and the margins are already razor thin, even for a restaurant.
Ultimately, they're hamstrung by the fact that by nature of their business, they have to limit selection. I haven't encountered a single set of recipes from Blue Apron that didn't contain at least one that I absolutely hate, taste wise - and that's what I hear from others as well.
So what they do is, they teach you how to cook. At some point, you'll lose the fear of it (because it really isn't hard). The moment you add the first ingredient of your own, just because you like it, you're pretty much lost to them.
The one useful pivot I could see - but where I can't see the feasibility - is you picking recipes a la carte, and they ship the ingredients prepped. (That's where the major time sink is - and people are always willing to pay to get back time).
That requires a huge number of customers, figuring out how to keep prepped materials fresh, and tremendous automation to be possible. It's a far cry from "we ship these 6 meal kits to you"
The tough part seems to be the commoditization of the product. Someone else posted a video with a decent analysis but that only touched on the real problem. When Amazon bought Whole Foods, the game changed. This market can only make it so far on nice packaging and creative recipes it appears, so when the inevitable race to the bottom happens, the big players in low prices like Amazon will always win since there isnt enough to differentiate the product to justify the price.
Blue Apron seems to have advertised on almost every single one of the 20+ podcasts I listen to. They share that distinction with the razor delivery companies (Harry's and DSC), Casper, and Nature Box. No matter the podcast or subject matter it always seems to be the same companies.
I guess in that case the plan is after their money-losing prices drive competitors out of business and they can cut out the drivers with advances in autonomous driving. Both far from assured, in my opinion.
They did make money. A lot of money. If you can sell $100 bills for $90, but get paid personally by investors who think that constitutes revenue, then you're making a good business decision.
With Kroger clicklist, instacart, amazon fresh, etc. I don't see the need for this. I need more companies that auto order from kroger click list my recipe selections.
I also really like freshly that delivers fresh, ready to heat blue arpon quality meals (high end tv dinners, but never frozen)
We use Hello Fresh. They're still iterating on the logistics side on a weekly basis - different shipments may use totally different packing materials. Initially there was a _ton_ of packing material waste every week, now it's way down. Big plus.
They're starting to cross-sell with wine pairings, which makes me think they're needing to drive LTV.
The problem I see is they haven't managed to build anything defensive. I've got not real brand loyalty, they're not capturing much information about my meal preferences other than what I order, and we're starting to get repeated meals. We'll probably cancel before the end of the year, even though it's been an enjoyable subscription overall to date.
I'm not bullish on 'em, but would love to be proven wrong. :)
We used Platjoy for a while (doesn't ship you food, just makes buying food from grocery/instacart easy) and provides recipes.
It was pretty good for a bit, but the recipes were not as good as we would have liked. I think services like Platjoy make the most sense in the future combined with automated ordering from services like Instacart.
It makes more sense IMO to only handle half the equation when the two businesses do not need to be integrated. (logistics on one hand, recipe on the other)
HelloFresh added a surcharge of £4.99 for the best meals in each box (salmon/steak). I used it a while ago but stopped because it just felt too expensive to be worth it and I forgot to cancel a box I couldn't use. They phoned me a few weeks ago and offered a nice discount on two boxes, I'll probably use them at some point but every box I want has that surcharge and I doubt I'll come back properly. You can skip weeks further ahead than just one now though, that's a nice comfort.
I actually think they might've dropped the price on the base box.. but something about that surcharge just triggers a "this isn't a deal any more" reflex in me - it's really offputting for me and has definitely stopped me considering it seriously again.
Also all their recipes are available for free, I don't see their moat. Their recipes and food are good though.
[+] [-] emodendroket|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] ben174|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] showerst|8 years ago|reply
This is where the price premium is worth it to some people.
[+] [-] dragonwriter|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] JohnBooty|8 years ago|reply
For us it was kind of like a "date night" thing three times a week. It was fun cooking the meals together. More fun than a restaurant really, because we still got to sit down and enjoy a nice meal.
We found the cost (about $10/person/meal) to be about halfway between buying our own groceries and dining out. If Blue Apron replaces dining out, it's actually sort of a money saver.
Groceries are expensive. We usually spend a little over $120 per week for food for two. Our dinners usually come out to like $4 or $5 per meal per person I think.[1] A decent restaurant, not fast food or Applebees... including tip and everything, I find we usually spend around at least $30 for two.
Why did we unsubscribe? Well, it is more expensive than groceries and we wanted to trim expenses even more. And my work schedule makes it hard for me to be home in time for us to cook together, which was half the fun. Also the portions were a bit small... though maybe that's just because my idea of a portion is too big.
_______________________________
[1] Now, before anybody says anything, yeah, I was a poor student once too. Trust me, I know how to eat a LOT cheaper than that. I remember making $20 last a whole week. Gotta load up on the eggs and rice. Ramen too, but if you're eating a ton of it you gotta throw away at least half of the flavor packets so you don't die of a sodium overdose. Maybe throw a few multivitamins down your throat once in a while too so you don't get scurvy. I actually sort of miss those days.
[+] [-] marak830|8 years ago|reply
Have you seen what most people eat when single, and just want some food? It's abhorent.
I have more than a few bachelor friends(or those that use to be), and the food they consume is, well I'd say I wouldn't feed to my dog, but that doesn't quite cover it.
I know they are busy professionals, and I cannot honestly say I have eaten the most top quality foods myself when I have been tired, but they exist from day to day on those things.
[+] [-] gambiting|8 years ago|reply
For £5 you can get.....a frozen burger and a pint of pepsi from a local pub? I can't think of any restaurant that would have starters this cheap, much less mains.
The demand for me is that it's fresh, delicious and I learn a lot about cooking while making it - it's been 100% worth the money so far.
[+] [-] biggc|8 years ago|reply
I've started using Good Eggs for weekly dinner kits with my SO and have found the meals to be tasty, healthy, easy to prepare, easy to clean up, and we enjoy preparing the meal and sitting down to eat together.
We're both fortunate enough to be in high income professions, and the convenience is worth a few extra dollars/meal to us. It doesn't break the bank.
As for the restaurant comparison, sure we could get cheap takeout for $10 per person, but it wouldn't be anymore near as healthy, and it wouldn't involve any cooking together. A similar quality meal at a restaurant would probably be at least $15 per person.
The point being is that, there are people who value the convenience these kits provide. But I am dubious as to whether there are enough to justify Blue Apron's valuation.
[+] [-] razvanh|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] empath75|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] craftyguy|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] nxsynonym|8 years ago|reply
Me and my SO ordered on and off for a few months, mostly just to try out new recipes and get ideas. Out of everything we tried we've only gone back to make 4 or 5 of the recipes on our own (without re-ordering that meal).
The waste is the biggest issue for me. The price point is a little high, but if you're not relying on it for every meal it's not terrible. The amount of cardboard and plastic that came in every box was absurd.
[+] [-] kenoyer130|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Klathmon|8 years ago|reply
They are marketing their product at people that want to do the prep, the cooking, the whole deal, but don't know where to begin. I loved my few Blue Apron boxes that I got. It was exactly what I expected and wanted.
There is a market for what you describe, but it's not what they are trying to solve.
[+] [-] sjg007|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] gandreani|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] ben174|8 years ago|reply
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UpQkAEei08w
[+] [-] BoiledCabbage|8 years ago|reply
A summary of his critiques:
"They grew too quickly for their own good." Ok, so his conclusions, they should've grown more slowly
"The giant Amazon entered the market and scared people away from them"
Being an even smaller company wouldn't have helped fight amazon. Being larger and in a sufficient position with high enough revenue to try to fight amazon or get negotiate better rates would've. But this exactly contradicts growing too fast]
"Don't buy a ranch" This point is funny, and makes for a catch phrase, but buying that single ranch had no significant impact on their profits. They aren't succeeding or failing because of that ranch. It's something convenient to point to and say a cliche like "you're not focusing on your core competencies", but honestly that likely had a .001 percent impact on their actual business. And no I don't imaging 70% of their management team is focusing on that ranch at the expense of their core business.
This entire video feels like fluff, mad-money style analysis to me. And really gives no insights as to what is happening to their business.
Things I would've found interesting. Are they losing customers? Has growth stopped? What are competitors spending on marketing? What are competitors acquisition rates? How long does the average customer stay? Was it priced assuming it was long term customers, but customers actually only stay less than 1yr then move on? Are single people using it to learn cooking then leave? Do customers that leave, leave the industry or just move to another service? Are customers just hopping/rotating between multiple services?
Answers to those questions would provide some insight. this presentation really had nothing to me. The closest thing was the food safety issue, but again did that actually impact delivery rates? Or costs? is it just normal cost of doing business in produce/meat delivery?
I really expected more from this.
[+] [-] jobu|8 years ago|reply
Why the hell did Blue Apron buy a ranch? https://youtu.be/UpQkAEei08w?t=10m59s
[+] [-] rootedbox|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] djrogers|8 years ago|reply
I’m happy that a mandolin is working for you, but there is a lot more to knife skills than slicing - there are a lot of foods and cuts that a mandolin can’t do, and they aren’t difficult or unsafe. As long as you don’t feel a need to be as fast as a line chef, you can do pretty much any cut with about 5 minutes of practice.
[+] [-] j7ake|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Frondo|8 years ago|reply
I don't even have fancy knives--ever--I buy the $3 knives from the Asian grocery store. They dull after a few months, and sometimes I sharpen, sometimes I toss.
[+] [-] Jemmeh|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] jimmywanger|8 years ago|reply
I listen to several podcasts (Bill Burr and Joe Rogan represent) and every single episode they got an ad plugging Blue Apron - except they recently yanked their spots on Burr's podcast because he joked around too much.
They're probably banking on LTV of their customers, but it just doesn't make sense when a lot of your customers cancel after 6 months and it costs 400 dollars in marketing expenses to acquire each one.
I just don't see a sustainable business model. The food industry is remarkably cutthroat, and the margins are already razor thin, even for a restaurant.
[+] [-] groby_b|8 years ago|reply
So what they do is, they teach you how to cook. At some point, you'll lose the fear of it (because it really isn't hard). The moment you add the first ingredient of your own, just because you like it, you're pretty much lost to them.
The one useful pivot I could see - but where I can't see the feasibility - is you picking recipes a la carte, and they ship the ingredients prepped. (That's where the major time sink is - and people are always willing to pay to get back time).
That requires a huge number of customers, figuring out how to keep prepped materials fresh, and tremendous automation to be possible. It's a far cry from "we ship these 6 meal kits to you"
[+] [-] SOLAR_FIELDS|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] tdeck|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Animats|8 years ago|reply
A good question for Uber investors.
[+] [-] emodendroket|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] kolbe|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] chrisgd|8 years ago|reply
I also really like freshly that delivers fresh, ready to heat blue arpon quality meals (high end tv dinners, but never frozen)
[+] [-] thearn4|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] adrianpike|8 years ago|reply
They're starting to cross-sell with wine pairings, which makes me think they're needing to drive LTV.
The problem I see is they haven't managed to build anything defensive. I've got not real brand loyalty, they're not capturing much information about my meal preferences other than what I order, and we're starting to get repeated meals. We'll probably cancel before the end of the year, even though it's been an enjoyable subscription overall to date.
I'm not bullish on 'em, but would love to be proven wrong. :)
[+] [-] wtvanhest|8 years ago|reply
It was pretty good for a bit, but the recipes were not as good as we would have liked. I think services like Platjoy make the most sense in the future combined with automated ordering from services like Instacart.
It makes more sense IMO to only handle half the equation when the two businesses do not need to be integrated. (logistics on one hand, recipe on the other)
[+] [-] mcintyre1994|8 years ago|reply
I actually think they might've dropped the price on the base box.. but something about that surcharge just triggers a "this isn't a deal any more" reflex in me - it's really offputting for me and has definitely stopped me considering it seriously again.
Also all their recipes are available for free, I don't see their moat. Their recipes and food are good though.
[+] [-] tunesmith|8 years ago|reply