The one thing Tesla supporters have pointed to more than anything is that Tesla had a large head-start in battery tech over all of the competitors. So Chevy is shipping many more Bolts than Tesla is shipping all models combined, but Tesla's headstart in battery tech and manufacturing would keep them a contender.
Now their head of battery tech is gone and they've missed model 3 targets by a very wide margin due to problems with batteries.
I'm not sure how reliable their lead in batteries is right now.
There's still that supercharger network, though. I suspect we'll be hearing more about that now that other points in Tesla's favor are dwindling.
> So Chevy is shipping many more Bolts than Tesla is shipping all models combined
Chevy shipped a few hundred more Bolts than Teslas one month. Tesla is way ahead on the year, and October is always a slow month for Tesla for whatever reason. It’s netiher a trend (yet) not is it ‘many’.
Also, those are dealer shipments - anecdotally, I see tons of them on dealership lots being advertised way under list price. The exact opposite of the situation Tesla is in.
The company behind lithium-ion battery technology in Tesla Gigafactories is Panasonic. They own the core patents and IP. Same is true for solar PV cells.
- battery range (the tech and battery production capacity doesn't disappear with the manager)
- charging network (passing 1,000 stations)
- autonomous driving (miles recorded and in all kinds of traffic and weather)
- selling online and through own dealers in malls as opposed to through independent dealers in the outskirts of town
- integrating electric into every part of the car design
- over the air updates
- brand (you don't think f Nissan, Chevy, BMW etc. as EV makers)
They are also still the only manufacturer that makes EVs look attractive and perform better than ordinary cars. Everybody else on the market seem to deliberately make ugly cars with mediocre performance. The reason probably is the simple fact that Tesla wants you to buy electric cars whereas the other manufacturers already make money on selling combustion engine cars and would make less selling EVs. They are in the EV market reluctantly.
In theory, the above could change quickly. But how does a company that for 100 years has made combustion engine cars and has thousands of employees, suppliers, facilities, contracts, etc all geared up on selling combustion engine cars through dealerships and who are dependent on making money on spare parts and repairs of mechanical parts suddenly pivot into selling EVs that barely need repairs online or in malls? It's as likely as Google launching a Facebook challenger. Or Microsoft beating Amazon on selling consumer goods. Actually, it's less likely since all the incumbent car manufacturers run on razor thin margins. They don't have piles of cash to reinvent themselves. It's more like Nokia winning the smart phone game or a news paper beating Google on selling online ads.
My bet is still on Tesla, but it would be nice if I'm wrong and the incumbents rise to the challenge.
>So Chevy is shipping many more Bolts than Tesla is shipping all models combined
What? That's not even remotely accurate. Tesla sold ~75,000 vehicles in q1-q3. Year to date sales for Bolt is approximately 17,000. And that includes all cars sitting at the car dealership not even sold. Tesla only counts a sale once it's delivered into the customers hands. Bolt sales are a very tiny fraction of Tesla's sales.
Is the supercharger network really all that big of a deal for the average electric car user, though? As of 2016, there were about 13k charging stations with 30k chargers in the US. 613 of these, with 3600 chargers, were Tesla. And the US is behind the curve here; there are 5000 stations with 14k chargers in the UK. Even most fast chargers are not Tesla, either in the US or worldwide. In the US, Tesla’s network is arguably better distributed along interstates, but this is mostly a US-specific problem.
The superchargers are arguably a big deal for model S and X users, who I believe often have free charging. As I understand it, Model 3 users wont have this, though? So what’s so special about the Tesla ones, especially outside the US?
A Bolt is a $36K-$7.5K car. A Tesla is a $100K-$7.5K car. These are very different cars, a Golden Delicious vs Honeycrisp comparison. Of course the Bolt is going to outsell the Tesla.
Who cares how many Bolts are sold, if the average Tesla sells for two or three times as much. As they used to teach in business school, its not your share of the market that counts, its your share of the market's profits. Also, maybe no one is making a profit yet but the point is, if you can charge a lot more than your competitor you don't have to outsell them in units.
I'm graduating with my BS in EE next month and I've been applying to lots of places working on battery technology since it's incredibly interesting to me, but I have no idea how anyone becomes a "specialist" in that field. Everything I've learned has been outside of class, and there aren't any offered in my department or in Materials Science or Chemistry, and a few of my friends at top-tier schools like CMU and Purdue have said the same thing. It seems so critical for everything from energy grids during natural disasters to environmentally friendly material sourcing/disposal. I hope schools start focusing on it.
My sister's path was getting an unrelated Ph.D. in chemistry, getting a postdoc at Lawrence Berkeley Lab in battery chemistry, and then getting a job at a startup in the field that's commercializing and extending its founder's university research. That company appears to hire chemists, ChemEs, and MechEs/industrial engineers right now.
Honestly most of the job is learned at the job. Then additionally comes reading papers, blogs and HN to extend the area of theoretical knowledge. Don't underestimate the power of pure crunching on experiment after experiment for 60h/week for 2-3 years though. If you want to become better, find a job in a company serious about battery development and then work your ass off.
Are you sure it is interesting from a career perspective? It seems that battery tech is a pretty mature field since it hasn't gone anywhere in the last decades despite huge commercial interests. Of course, things might change and probably they will somewhere in the future, but my guess is that patents will make it a winner-takes-all situation.
So either he was "asked to leave" (fired) for somehow being responsible for the battery issue that was the rate-limiting factor for Model 3 production, OR he was being leaned on so hard by management to fix the problem that he left for work-life-balance reasons (ragequit.)
Either way, he gets to put in his expertise to found a new company in one of the hottest technologies there is in 2017, probably becoming rich by selling Tesla's own upgraded tech back to it, as well as to everyone else in the electric car race. All while not having Elon Musk looming over his shoulder. Not bad!
Thomas Watson (founder of IBM) is quoted to have once said to an employee who tried to resign after a big mistake, “Fire you? I’ve just invested one million dollars in your education, and you think I’m going to fire you?”
It sounds like the battery issues aren't even completely within Tesla's control - you try sourcing that much lithium!
...seriously, I'm sorta worried about our continued access to enough lithium for all this electric technology that's rapidly emerging. Counterarguments?
Interesting, given last week's reports of Model 3 production being bottlenecked due to battery supply issues. Is his departure the result of him being held responsible for these issues? Or did he decide to leave of his own accord, and if so, why? Either way, I'd like to hear some more details.
Let's just appreciate this rare piece of news. All the information presented, without interpretation, no fuss or ads around the post (maybe due to adblocker, don't know). Clean and simple. This is way, waaay, too rare.
> [...] joined the company in January 2013,
> was involved in developing technology
> for all of Tesla's cars [according to
> his LinkedIn profile]
He joined after the Roadster went out of production, which had a proprietary Tesla powertrain, so this doesn't seem like an accurate summary, the Model S was also introduced half a year before he started in mid-2012.
Some articles reported the Model 3 delays were about the Fremont car assembly plant, but this hints at the Gigafactory being the bottleneck. If both are stuck/dead it's gonna smell bad. I wish Musk finds the help needed to at least "land" the project as smooth as his rockets.
That forum is quite anti-Tesla (as opposed to /r/teslamotors). The whole Tesla thing is quite controversial - lots of haters, lots of fanboys.
Best advice I can give you: Read what both sides have to say and weigh the arguments. Then just stick with the truth you've always believed in - it's what everyone does in 2017 ;-)
You're not wrong about that - there were news reports that Tesla was having serious issues with their car assembly line too (not least that parts of it weren't even there yet, and the parts that were there weren't working properly and would likely be hell to fix due to Tesla skipping a bunch of the normal steps in having such equipment designed and manufactured).
Didn't Toyota just announce their new battery tech due in 2022? Solid state batteries with short/fast recharge time? Maybe this engineer didn't have anything up his sleeve to get there before toyota
Japanese automakers are circling their wagons. Toyota, Mazda, and Denso are collaborating in a JV, with Suzuki expected to join. Toyota leadership is demanding longer range and faster charging batteries from the alliance engineers. The important markets in play are US, China, and South Asia (including India).
Can anyone explain what the rules are regarding the head of battery engineering leaving Tesla to make similar batteries on his own? Wouldn't it be IP theft if he tried copying the tech he developed at Tesla?
That's conjecture. There are many reasons why a person might leave a company, and not all of them are because the person is unhappy with the company or the company is unhappy with the person. I'd rather we didn't jump to conclusions in the absence of evidence.
[+] [-] pwinnski|8 years ago|reply
The one thing Tesla supporters have pointed to more than anything is that Tesla had a large head-start in battery tech over all of the competitors. So Chevy is shipping many more Bolts than Tesla is shipping all models combined, but Tesla's headstart in battery tech and manufacturing would keep them a contender.
Now their head of battery tech is gone and they've missed model 3 targets by a very wide margin due to problems with batteries.
I'm not sure how reliable their lead in batteries is right now.
There's still that supercharger network, though. I suspect we'll be hearing more about that now that other points in Tesla's favor are dwindling.
[+] [-] djrogers|8 years ago|reply
Chevy shipped a few hundred more Bolts than Teslas one month. Tesla is way ahead on the year, and October is always a slow month for Tesla for whatever reason. It’s netiher a trend (yet) not is it ‘many’.
Also, those are dealer shipments - anecdotally, I see tons of them on dealership lots being advertised way under list price. The exact opposite of the situation Tesla is in.
[+] [-] rohit2412|8 years ago|reply
And cost-wise LG Chem seems competitive enough to Panasonic anyway, keeping in mind leaked figures for Bolt.
[+] [-] Nokinside|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] flexie|8 years ago|reply
- battery range (the tech and battery production capacity doesn't disappear with the manager)
- charging network (passing 1,000 stations)
- autonomous driving (miles recorded and in all kinds of traffic and weather)
- selling online and through own dealers in malls as opposed to through independent dealers in the outskirts of town
- integrating electric into every part of the car design
- over the air updates
- brand (you don't think f Nissan, Chevy, BMW etc. as EV makers)
They are also still the only manufacturer that makes EVs look attractive and perform better than ordinary cars. Everybody else on the market seem to deliberately make ugly cars with mediocre performance. The reason probably is the simple fact that Tesla wants you to buy electric cars whereas the other manufacturers already make money on selling combustion engine cars and would make less selling EVs. They are in the EV market reluctantly.
In theory, the above could change quickly. But how does a company that for 100 years has made combustion engine cars and has thousands of employees, suppliers, facilities, contracts, etc all geared up on selling combustion engine cars through dealerships and who are dependent on making money on spare parts and repairs of mechanical parts suddenly pivot into selling EVs that barely need repairs online or in malls? It's as likely as Google launching a Facebook challenger. Or Microsoft beating Amazon on selling consumer goods. Actually, it's less likely since all the incumbent car manufacturers run on razor thin margins. They don't have piles of cash to reinvent themselves. It's more like Nokia winning the smart phone game or a news paper beating Google on selling online ads.
My bet is still on Tesla, but it would be nice if I'm wrong and the incumbents rise to the challenge.
[+] [-] lancewiggs|8 years ago|reply
Perhaps a look at this from the other way around is more revealing. They were having issues with batteries --> now their head of battery tech is gone.
[+] [-] dayaz36|8 years ago|reply
What? That's not even remotely accurate. Tesla sold ~75,000 vehicles in q1-q3. Year to date sales for Bolt is approximately 17,000. And that includes all cars sitting at the car dealership not even sold. Tesla only counts a sale once it's delivered into the customers hands. Bolt sales are a very tiny fraction of Tesla's sales.
[+] [-] shaneos|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] rsynnott|8 years ago|reply
The superchargers are arguably a big deal for model S and X users, who I believe often have free charging. As I understand it, Model 3 users wont have this, though? So what’s so special about the Tesla ones, especially outside the US?
[+] [-] startupdiscuss|8 years ago|reply
For instance, suppose Chevy needs to go through this retooling at some point in the future and set back production at that point.
A set back is not proof that they don't have a lead in battery tech.
However, it should be asked: what is the nature of the lead? What is superior about the batteries? How does this lead manifest?
[+] [-] CalChris|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] georgeecollins|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] beambot|8 years ago|reply
Maybe there is some causality between these two statements...
[+] [-] synicalx|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] PascLeRasc|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] DigitalJack|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] akgerber|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] erikb|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] amelius|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] PeachPlum|8 years ago|reply
https://www.linkedin.com/jobs/search/?keywords=battery&locat...
Once you know who does the work, target them as a goal.
[+] [-] dsfyu404ed|8 years ago|reply
Be careful what you wish for.
Right now you stand to make a lot of money. If schools start cranking out undergrads who know what you know you won't be very valuable.
edit: looks like I struck a nerve.
[+] [-] maxander|8 years ago|reply
Either way, he gets to put in his expertise to found a new company in one of the hottest technologies there is in 2017, probably becoming rich by selling Tesla's own upgraded tech back to it, as well as to everyone else in the electric car race. All while not having Elon Musk looming over his shoulder. Not bad!
[+] [-] tankenmate|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] leggomylibro|8 years ago|reply
...seriously, I'm sorta worried about our continued access to enough lithium for all this electric technology that's rapidly emerging. Counterarguments?
[+] [-] dgritsko|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] erikb|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] djtriptych|8 years ago|reply
This makes me nervous as an investor..
[+] [-] avar|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] greglindahl|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] mikeryan|8 years ago|reply
For Tesla I'd be surprised if the "Head of Battery Engineering" was only a "Director" level position in US style corporate ladders?
[+] [-] return0|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] agumonkey|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] itengelhardt|8 years ago|reply
Here's a link to a summary of conference call: https://www.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/7ao4m0/conferenc...
That forum is quite anti-Tesla (as opposed to /r/teslamotors). The whole Tesla thing is quite controversial - lots of haters, lots of fanboys.
Best advice I can give you: Read what both sides have to say and weigh the arguments. Then just stick with the truth you've always believed in - it's what everyone does in 2017 ;-)
[+] [-] makomk|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] supernovae|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] nihonde|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] kirykl|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] free_everybody|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] ballenf|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] dogruck|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] elihu|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] iMuzz|8 years ago|reply
It seems like he left to start his own company?
[+] [-] jbob2000|8 years ago|reply
I'm betting Tesla couldn't pay him enough and he's starting his own shop to sell to the other major auto manufacturers.
[+] [-] r00fus|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] draw_down|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] jaimex2|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] british_india|8 years ago|reply
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[+] [-] unknown|8 years ago|reply
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