Am I the only one who's worried that Tesla is really starting to bite off more than they can chew? Right now their finances are a mess, they are publicly struggling to produce their most important car ever, their CEO is spending time figuring out how to dig holes underneath LA...and now they're announcing a semi truck and a roaster in the same day? Don't get me wrong, Teslas are incredible cars. But this seems like an overreach considering they are struggling to figure out how to meet demand on the Model 3. It's also insane to announce this car with what boils down to a bunch of CGI! These are some very bold announcements and there isn't much explanation for how these goals will be met. I hope this all turns out as advertised, but I'm very skeptical.
Has the 8 second quarter mile been confirmed to be done in stock trim (i.e., no special tires or other modifications)?
The reason I ask is because that is EXTREMELY impressive. I tune EFI systems on race cars as a hobby, and any car in the 8 second range usually needs to run slicks or drag radials to have enough traction.
Even all wheel drive cars (GTRs, DSMs, EVOs, etc.) usually run 4 slicks once they get to that speed.
It seems very hard to make a pass like that on regular street tires, even with AWD.
EDIT: To add, I'm not knocking Tesla here, as there are very few cars that can actually run an 8 second pass off the showroom floor without any modifications at all. Even if they had to put slicks on the car to reach that time, that still puts it on par with 1000 HP dedicated drag cars.
The Tesla roadster specs are insane! No exotic carmaker will be able to match it (taking price as a consideration). (no Ferrari, or Lambo, can get that close. This is Formula 1 acceleration speeds).
Plus 620 miles of range, and it is a 4 seater. Expensive as hell, but this is exotic car territory.
200K is actually good value, seeing as gas supercars that are near it in terms of performance (except slower) often cost over $1M.
EDIT: Tesla probably should fix their homepage going to a what appears to be the live stream page. I'd have to imagine they are losing valuable pageviews and sales. Tesla.com should be redirecting to either the Semi or Roadster landing pages.
Does this mean that Tesla is pivoting from their attempt to produce a medium-priced car in quantity and going back to hand-building high-end cars?
Tesla is good at high-end, low volume products. But the Model 3 production fiasco shows they don't know how to do what Detroit and Wolfsburg and Toyota City do. This is in a way a step backwards. Tesla is going back to targeting the 1%.
There are lots of little supercar companies. It's not that hard to build an electric supercar in tiny volume. I know some people who've done it. It's fun, and there are idiots with too much money who'll buy the thing. But it's a waste of engineering talent which should be getting the volume product out the door.
Pretty mich every car company makes a high end sports car. This isn’t a pivot, this is establishing Tesla as a car company with a range of cars rather than just 1 or 2 that are very similar. Product diversification is a good thing for companies that make physical products. The manufacturing process and higher margins on this will likely fund new developments that will trickle down to the less expensive models.
1,000 reservations @ $250k means they can pay for 5% of their new gigafactory, and that's just the founder's run. If that means they can scale better, I'm all for it. And I say that as someone who won't be able to afford a car like this for a looong time, if ever.
Toyota owns Lexus, Ford had Jaguar and Land Rover, Hyundai owns Genesis, Volkswagon has Bentley, Fiat owns Ferrari. Just like other car manufacturers, Tesla does it all.
> But the Model 3 production fiasco shows they don't know how to do what Detroit and Wolfsburg and Toyota City do.
What fiasco? It was obvious from the start that their schedule was wildly optimistic. But that's probably just Elons way of pushing workers as hard as possible.
It's way too early to call the Model 3 a success or failure. Of course it takes a few months to ramp up and stabilize production. It's their first truly mass produced car, and there's a lot of differences from their previous model. Not to mention that they're using a brand new battery.
It makes no sense to go back and it's financially almost impossible. If Tesla gets into trouble, it's better to sell the company or parts of the company for some carmaker who can mass produce.
My brother pointed out that other Tesla cars (even the semi they announced) have a "front trunk". This one's hood is seamless. Our theory is that under the entire front hood is batteries.
I was just about to write my own comment about this: the battery capacity is the real eye-opener in this announcement, I think. The new roadster looks like a car which is rather smaller than the Model 3, certainly not larger. And as a sporty car it wouldn't be heavier either.
So how in all worlds do they fit a 200kWh battery in there?
This can only mean, it has more than twice the capacity per weight and volume than the current Tesla battery tech. Very intriguing. Of course, it could be a very obvious case of history repeating itself. The original Tesla roadster pioneered the current Tesla battery tech, what would be more appropriate (and reasonable) than to launch the next generation battery tech with the next gen roadster? The high price and corresponding smaller sales numbers allows for an easy introduction of experimental technology.
This car isn't surprising considering the existing Model S performance in any way except that range. WTF?? 650 miles in a car that size is totally game changing. Will next gen of Model 3 and Model S also have 3X their current range?
Taking reservations for 1000 founder series cars at $250k each up front means they're pre-selling $250,000,000 worth of product at least 2 years out. Kind of smart.
I wonder what the handling will be like. Teslas on the track have had over heating issues, and cornering performance has been just average at best.
Not every exotic car owner (Ferrari, Lambo, Mclaren) brings their car to the track, but I feel like a good % do. When you own a 200k car, you don't drive it to the grocery store because it attracts too much attention, and you worry something bad will happen to it.
Edit: For more clarification on the grocery getter comment: As an owner of an older exotic car, I've seen that most do not drive their exotics that much. 1-5k miles max/year. The cheapest insurance policies won't let you drive it to any public parking lots. And policies from the normal companies will cost $3-8k in large metropolitan areas for 40-50 year olds. So where do you go? You make excuses to drive it. Cruise to a friends house, drive in the mountains, or to the track if you have time. Daily errands are for your other car. Why risk it. Elon's a pretty good showman, and he makes me feel like I could do anything with this car! But, alas, 200k, I want it to be perfect forever. Even used in 5 years @ 130-150k.
Bold prediction: if they manage to produce a battery capable of 620 mile range promised, it will essentially be game over for ICE cars. My bet is that next generation of Model S and X will easily be in the 400-500 mile rsnge.
This might sound really stupid. But isn't performing such acceleration on a daily basis close to the limit of harming one's health? I mean micro concussions for example.
Really curious because that acceleration is amazing!
That's what caught my attention the most. This is unheard of in a production car. I'm also generally very excited that Lamborghini is also experimenting with electric power.
We might be entering a new breed of electric supercars. the 3 second line used to be the gold standard but it seems like electric cars are aiming for sub 1.5 second range....that is insane acceleration.
There has got to be an astroturfing campaign going on here, or the HN crowd is a lot more naive than I thought. Seriously, no one is concerned that Tesla is announcing, not one, but two new products, while they are failing to deliver on all three they are currently producing (in terms of production ramp-up)? What matters more than anything to Tesla is production at scale, but they are busy promising ever more fantastic new products that will distract even more from hitting core goals. Every announcement from Tesla seems more like flimflam at this point, hardly better than an ICO (with preordering and everything).
That's not even getting into Elon Musk's ever expanding personal commitments with Tesla, SpaceX, Boring company, Solar City and what have you, each making bold new announcements every other week, like saving Puerto Rico (and Australia too, while we're at it).
There are definitely issues with the Model 3 - but I'd imagine that the production line for the Semi will ramp up significantly after the Model 3 is working, and will involve an entirely separate team.
> Seriously, no one is concerned that Tesla is announcing, not one, but two new products, while they are failing to deliver on all three they are currently producing (in terms of production ramp-up)?
It's almost like.....there's nothing to say about Model 3 right now, where the bulk of their effort is going, because it's just a matter of steadily toiling away ramping up production, just like they said all along. It's almost like....a proportionately tiny amount of their engineering resources have been working on these other projects for some time, and they're just announcing them because.....they're ready to be shown off, and are unrelated to the Model 3 progress.
It's almost like....you're determined to cast this in a negative light, like so many others.
Hitting production targets isn't enough to keep wall street happy with Tesla though, to keep raising money and servicing the debt that they have, he needs to keep creating value inflection points to stoke the hype and keep the money coming in.
I agree that the main concern should be delivering cars but production delays are solvable while he is still raising money. As soon as he takes his foot off the pedal then their ability to raise money will be much harder than it is while he is announcing new stuff and increasing their risk of going under.
Worst case scenario with his current strategy: they run out of money and an acquirer buys them for the cost of their debt and gets a company with a fully fleshed out product roadmap and some solvable production issues (and no need to solve those issues quickly).
Drop the new product roadmap and focus on production: the going under acquisition is less attractive as they would be acquiring a company with a limited product roadmap and a load of production issues.
He is showing that the future is going to be so amazing that it is worth pouring money into Tesla.
Elon Musk has a decade of track record. Model 3 will eventually be delivered. My point of contention with TSLA is that the stock price does not match the up-side, but sooner or later Tesla always delivered. They will learn and deliver, I have seen reviews of Model 3, the average delivered vehicle will cost around 50K no doubt, but its worth every penny of it. Model 3 is not every man's car, but again a used Model 3 can be.
I am really impressed by Elon, even if fails spectacularly he has set things in motion his impact will be there in the fields he touched. In my opinion, he is better than Steve Jobs both in vision and execution.
I couldn't agree more, the number of anti-Tesla comments here are staggering.
You could literally copy-paste comments from the Roaster v1, Model S, and Model X launches and relate them to the Model 3. All of those were a success, and had initial production ramp issues.
Guess what, they all ramped. I can't tell you how disappointing it is to see the HN crowd fall for the SeekingAlpha narrative.
I would suggest the opposite; This type of cynicism over Tesla and Musk's other companies seems ever-increasingly popular and widespread, despite relatively few failures and setbacks - which are outweighed by the numerous earlier successes showing both Tesla's and Musk's ability to deliver on far more difficult challenges.
Those acceleration figures are meaningless. The Chiron isn't the best car on a circuit for example. I would be interested to see this car compete against say a gt3 on a track like Nürburgring :)
The specs are astonishing, and I believe they can deliver. The original Roadster is the iconic car that made electric vehicles cool.
Would be nice if they could get production of the Model 3 properly ramped up so us peasants who've been drooling over performance electric cars since before we had our driver's licenses can actually get our hands on them...
[+] [-] wintermute2001|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Unklejoe|8 years ago|reply
The reason I ask is because that is EXTREMELY impressive. I tune EFI systems on race cars as a hobby, and any car in the 8 second range usually needs to run slicks or drag radials to have enough traction.
Even all wheel drive cars (GTRs, DSMs, EVOs, etc.) usually run 4 slicks once they get to that speed.
It seems very hard to make a pass like that on regular street tires, even with AWD.
EDIT: To add, I'm not knocking Tesla here, as there are very few cars that can actually run an 8 second pass off the showroom floor without any modifications at all. Even if they had to put slicks on the car to reach that time, that still puts it on par with 1000 HP dedicated drag cars.
[+] [-] ardit33|8 years ago|reply
Plus 620 miles of range, and it is a 4 seater. Expensive as hell, but this is exotic car territory.
Base Specs
Acceleration 0-60 mph1.9 sec
Acceleration 0-100 mph4.2 sec
Acceleration 1/4 mile8.8 sec
Top SpeedOver 250 mph
Wheel Torque 10,000 Nm
Mile Range 620 miles
Seating 4
Drive All-Wheel Drive
Base Price $200,000
Base Reservation $50,000
Founders Series Price $250,000
Founders Series Reservation
(1,000 reservations available)$250,000
[+] [-] speeq|8 years ago|reply
https://twitter.com/DavidHodge/status/931391188065705984
[+] [-] nodesocket|8 years ago|reply
EDIT: Tesla probably should fix their homepage going to a what appears to be the live stream page. I'd have to imagine they are losing valuable pageviews and sales. Tesla.com should be redirecting to either the Semi or Roadster landing pages.
Screenshot: https://imgur.com/a/L9oN5
[+] [-] lafar6502|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Animats|8 years ago|reply
Tesla is good at high-end, low volume products. But the Model 3 production fiasco shows they don't know how to do what Detroit and Wolfsburg and Toyota City do. This is in a way a step backwards. Tesla is going back to targeting the 1%.
There are lots of little supercar companies. It's not that hard to build an electric supercar in tiny volume. I know some people who've done it. It's fun, and there are idiots with too much money who'll buy the thing. But it's a waste of engineering talent which should be getting the volume product out the door.
[+] [-] simonbarker87|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] digitalzombie|8 years ago|reply
It's a halo car...
Car companies build halo car to get consumers attention to their brand and to sell other models.
Nissan didn't have to build the GT-R R35 but it did because it's a halo car.
Another example is Toyota LFA.
[+] [-] wjn0|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] baron816|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] samhunta|8 years ago|reply
edit: Ford didn't start Jaguar.
[+] [-] audunw|8 years ago|reply
What fiasco? It was obvious from the start that their schedule was wildly optimistic. But that's probably just Elons way of pushing workers as hard as possible.
It's way too early to call the Model 3 a success or failure. Of course it takes a few months to ramp up and stabilize production. It's their first truly mass produced car, and there's a lot of differences from their previous model. Not to mention that they're using a brand new battery.
Let's wait a year to call the Model 3.
[+] [-] eclipxe|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] aerovistae|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] colordrops|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] nabla9|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] dingo_bat|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] _ea1k|8 years ago|reply
Is this a generational leap in energy density? What kind of materials are being used here?
[+] [-] thebluehawk|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] _ph_|8 years ago|reply
So how in all worlds do they fit a 200kWh battery in there?
This can only mean, it has more than twice the capacity per weight and volume than the current Tesla battery tech. Very intriguing. Of course, it could be a very obvious case of history repeating itself. The original Tesla roadster pioneered the current Tesla battery tech, what would be more appropriate (and reasonable) than to launch the next generation battery tech with the next gen roadster? The high price and corresponding smaller sales numbers allows for an easy introduction of experimental technology.
[+] [-] greglindahl|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] ficklepickle|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] eagsalazar2|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] synicalx|8 years ago|reply
What happens when a gigantic battery like that starts failing and needs to be replaced? Can they be recycled or maybe refurbished?
[+] [-] bwang29|8 years ago|reply
Wave 1: "It's all about legacy and prestige, not speed/acceleration".
Wave 2: "The track handling isn't all that good, how can drivers take that corner at full power without losing traction".
Wave 3: "Alright, we will go electric too".
[+] [-] DenverR|8 years ago|reply
Say they can fill up all the founder series slots along with 5,000 regular slots, that’s $500,000,000. Smart :)
[+] [-] yoda_sl|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] gok|8 years ago|reply
Hope they stay solvent long enough to ship it.
[+] [-] sxates|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] tdiggity|8 years ago|reply
Not every exotic car owner (Ferrari, Lambo, Mclaren) brings their car to the track, but I feel like a good % do. When you own a 200k car, you don't drive it to the grocery store because it attracts too much attention, and you worry something bad will happen to it.
Edit: For more clarification on the grocery getter comment: As an owner of an older exotic car, I've seen that most do not drive their exotics that much. 1-5k miles max/year. The cheapest insurance policies won't let you drive it to any public parking lots. And policies from the normal companies will cost $3-8k in large metropolitan areas for 40-50 year olds. So where do you go? You make excuses to drive it. Cruise to a friends house, drive in the mountains, or to the track if you have time. Daily errands are for your other car. Why risk it. Elon's a pretty good showman, and he makes me feel like I could do anything with this car! But, alas, 200k, I want it to be perfect forever. Even used in 5 years @ 130-150k.
[+] [-] dmode|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] hu3|8 years ago|reply
This might sound really stupid. But isn't performing such acceleration on a daily basis close to the limit of harming one's health? I mean micro concussions for example.
Really curious because that acceleration is amazing!
[+] [-] pwaai|8 years ago|reply
We might be entering a new breed of electric supercars. the 3 second line used to be the gold standard but it seems like electric cars are aiming for sub 1.5 second range....that is insane acceleration.
[+] [-] the_rosentotter|8 years ago|reply
That's not even getting into Elon Musk's ever expanding personal commitments with Tesla, SpaceX, Boring company, Solar City and what have you, each making bold new announcements every other week, like saving Puerto Rico (and Australia too, while we're at it).
[+] [-] AndrewDucker|8 years ago|reply
Australia work is 80% complete: http://reneweconomy.com.au/musk-says-tesla-big-battery-now-8...
There are definitely issues with the Model 3 - but I'd imagine that the production line for the Semi will ramp up significantly after the Model 3 is working, and will involve an entirely separate team.
https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2017/11/teslas-hell-threatens-its...
[+] [-] aerovistae|8 years ago|reply
It's almost like.....there's nothing to say about Model 3 right now, where the bulk of their effort is going, because it's just a matter of steadily toiling away ramping up production, just like they said all along. It's almost like....a proportionately tiny amount of their engineering resources have been working on these other projects for some time, and they're just announcing them because.....they're ready to be shown off, and are unrelated to the Model 3 progress.
It's almost like....you're determined to cast this in a negative light, like so many others.
[+] [-] simonbarker87|8 years ago|reply
I agree that the main concern should be delivering cars but production delays are solvable while he is still raising money. As soon as he takes his foot off the pedal then their ability to raise money will be much harder than it is while he is announcing new stuff and increasing their risk of going under.
Worst case scenario with his current strategy: they run out of money and an acquirer buys them for the cost of their debt and gets a company with a fully fleshed out product roadmap and some solvable production issues (and no need to solve those issues quickly).
Drop the new product roadmap and focus on production: the going under acquisition is less attractive as they would be acquiring a company with a limited product roadmap and a load of production issues.
He is showing that the future is going to be so amazing that it is worth pouring money into Tesla.
[+] [-] sremani|8 years ago|reply
I am really impressed by Elon, even if fails spectacularly he has set things in motion his impact will be there in the fields he touched. In my opinion, he is better than Steve Jobs both in vision and execution.
[+] [-] rubzah|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] lhnz|8 years ago|reply
If his production line isn't as efficient as it should be it will get fixed 'scientifically'. I'd agree with you if his background was different.
[+] [-] ainiriand|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] zionic|8 years ago|reply
You could literally copy-paste comments from the Roaster v1, Model S, and Model X launches and relate them to the Model 3. All of those were a success, and had initial production ramp issues.
Guess what, they all ramped. I can't tell you how disappointing it is to see the HN crowd fall for the SeekingAlpha narrative.
[+] [-] larkeith|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] kamaal|8 years ago|reply
He has already failed once, was bankrupt and almost broke. And struggled to make rents and has climbed out of it.
Failure doesn't mean much for people like this, they win a lot of things along the way even if they fail.
[+] [-] microtheo|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] StavrosK|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] greglindahl|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] gargravarr|8 years ago|reply
Would be nice if they could get production of the Model 3 properly ramped up so us peasants who've been drooling over performance electric cars since before we had our driver's licenses can actually get our hands on them...
[+] [-] ukulele|8 years ago|reply