“Rosenstreich at online trading firm Swissquote said bitcoin’s surge harks to the surprises of the U.K. referendum on European Union membership and President Trump’s election.
“We have underestimated the populist movements,” he said. “There is growing unease on how central banks and governments are managing fiat currencies. Ordinary people globally understand why a decentralized asset is the ultimate safe haven.””
That’s the reason for 10k and it will be the reason for 100k. 100k puts the market at cap at a trillion, it’s not that crazy if you remember that Gold is several times that and other than looking good as jewelry it has no other real intrinsic value. No one likes to talk about that though, they like to demonize bitcoin which actually does something gold could never do. Force trust in a world where you can’t trust anything.
>No one likes to talk about that though, they like to demonize bitcoin which actually does something gold could never do.
Just playing devils advocate, but you can't replicate/duplicate gold. On the other hand I could create 21M cryptocoins on a blockchain (calling them Bitcoin2 or even just Bitcoin if it pleases). I can make them function identically, similarly or more efficiently than Bitcoin. I can create a new blockchain (network) or put these coins on an existing blockchain (say the Ethereum blockchain). How much would you pay for all 21M Bitcoin? How much would you pay me to create you 21M Bitcoin2 and transfer 100% of them to you?
You say Bitcoin is $10k because ordinary people understand why a decentralized asset is the ultimate safe haven. If that is your premises it makes little sense to compare Bitcoin to gold, compare Bitcoin to other currencies. Why does Litecoin = $100 and Ether = $500? Bitcoin may do something gold could never do, obviously, but can it do anything any other cryptocoin/token can't?
The real irony is cryptocoins and blockchains couldn't even exist without gold, because it is a necessary component in the machines that created bitcoin, that hosts blockchain nodes, mines, hosts wallets and facilitates transactions.
This is nonsense. This is being driven by speculation / minuscule interest rates / greed. Very little of the demand for btc in the past year is due to lack of faith in institutions.
`100k puts the market at cap at a trillion, it’s not that crazy if you remember that Gold is several times that`. Similar things heard during every irrational bubble.
I believe people often trot out the 'actual worthlessness' of fiat currency, to support a misguided idea that btc must be the democratic antidote which will free countless millions from the financial enslavement of the global financial machine.
Currency is currency BECAUSE its sponsored by government. And the payments system only works because you are indemnified. By the FDIC. By Chase Credit Cards. That is, the evil banks. How so for btc?
BTC hits 10k while US readies to pass tax overhauls to increase an already alarming wealth inequality. Freedom fighters should pick the right battles.
I wish Bitcoin was as decentralized as everyone says it is.
Unlike fiat cash or gold, you can't spend it without an internet connection (in order to sync up the public ledger and submit the transaction).
You're subject to miners to approve your transactions, which in theory should be democratized, but isn't really since it's based on computing power, which in turn can be bought or centralized in mining pools.
You're subject to a small cabal of developers' whims in having to use the reference client and hardforks to patch up bugs in the protocol. In theory that should also be democratized, with people free to use whatever forks they want, but in practice it's centralized with everyone fleeing to whichever fork all the mining pools go with.
Gold's market cap in US dollars is currently $7.1 trillion; Bitcoin's is under $0.2 trillion:
Current market capitalization in US dollars
Global money supply (broad) over $90.0 trillion [a]
US dollar money supply (M2) $13.8 trillion [b]
Euro money supply (M2) $13.2 trillion [c]
All coins and banknotes in circulation $7.6 trillion [d]
All gold ever mined $7.1 trillion [e]
Bitcoin under $0.2 trillion [f]
The thing is, bitcoin in its current state isn't exactly decentralized - a small amount of miners control a fairly large % of bitcoin's hashrate. Not to mention most of those miners are located in China, which is also where most of the ASICs (mining equipment) are produced. These miners could easily support an alternate fork of bitcoin by moving their hashrate over, thus crippling the bitcoin chain. This was the whole drama with Segwit2x
> they like to demonize bitcoin which actually does something gold could never do
The practical utility of Bitcoin represents only a very small fraction of its price.
The price of bitcoin has climbed more than tenfold in a year - so what is causing this huge increase in demand? Compared to a year ago, are there 10 times as many drugs being purchased on the darknet with bitcoin? No. Are there 10 times as many Chinese people trying to get their money out of China? No. If anything, the utility of bitcoin has diminished as the transaction cost has risen.
The only reasonable explanation is that most people are buying bitcoin simply to sell at a higher price later. In that regard it's the same as gold, but also the same as every bubble asset in history.
I've seen comments saying "unlike bitcoin, gold has intrinsic value!" on HN for years. It never made sense to me. Like Bitcoin, gold is only valuable because we think it is and we want it to be (and because it's relatively scarce, too, just like Bitcoin is). Same with diamonds. Their functional value is relatively small in comparison to their "beauty" and scarcity values.
I have theory regarding "underestimated the populist movement" - Anything which is highly publicized and talked about whole day gets stuck in people's mind. And if that something is portrayed as taboo people get more attracted to it.
I think it is in everyone's favor to ignore and not give credence to things like these. There is an article on how Finland has been able to achieve this:
Everything you say can be true but if this is not just the new tulip mania there must be some number at which it stops. You predict 100k but why not a million? why not a billion?
But I really can’t see how this is not just an instrument for some people to get very rich in a very short amount of time on the back of others.
Can it reach 100k? Absolutely. 1M? Who knows. 10M/BTC? Someone on Reddit said it will get close. But in the end I do think it will be remembered as a global mania instead of the creation of a new asset class.
I do believe in block chain and the value of crypto currency in general, but I just don’t see how BTC will be the winning asset in the end, if anything Etherum has a lot more solid foundation and is a lot more scalable technically.
Be careful. There is evidence that certain parties are issuing fake dollars called USDT / Tether from which they buy cryptocoins (incl. BTC) to artificially increase the price:
Make sure you are able to get out on time if needed. Investigate and decide for yourself. There is a lot of censoring and vote manipulation going on. I am not going to point fingers, but just that you are aware.
One of the posters says the feds will shut it down. I also thought this too. This remains one of the most enduring mysteries of Bitcoin to me. Why has the government taken such a hands off approach?
The most remarkable aspect of bitcoin is that if Satoshi is a single person, it's the first time in history someone has become a billionaire by themselves.
It's not quite that clear cut, but it's not too far off.
Most comprehensive all-time Bitcoin price history chart you will find online, to give some perspective: http://bitcoin.zorinaq.com/price/ (Chart is interactive, see instructions at the bottom. I made it.)
Back in September I've written down my thoughts on how Bitcoin price is determined in a two part blog (the second part is about pricing), and back then I concluded that Bitcoin will falter if it does not reach the cap closer to that of gold, which has to do with the total "capacity" of Bitcoin as store of value, which is its market cap. It still has more than 10x of growth to get there.
Can someone explain to me why bitcoin should be priced so high relative to other cryptocurrencies?
The conspiracy theorist in me wants to say that the best way to undermine trust in cryptocurrencies is to create market turmoil. This would not just undermine trust in cryptocurrency, but serve to embolden the Fed's 'Price Stability' justification.
I'd have to argue it's because Bitcoin went net-positive after the BCH fork -- that shows a bit of resilience and probably would inspire false confidence in speculators.
First mover advantage. The Bitcoin paper and idea are world famous and while nowadays everyone has read/heard and is talking about Bitcoin, almost no one knows about other cryptocurrencies. Also I suppose the community is much larger and there are more miners.
I'd love to force disclaimers on bitcoin ownership prior to commenters trying to convince us how decentralized currency will change the world and hit $1M eventually.
It's called talking your book, which isn't illegal, but wildly disingenuous. FOMO is why the number keeps going up, these other reasons are window dressing for utter nonsense.
Well, there are only that many people with speculators mentality who will keep buying. At one point, all this will collapse. It's very easy to be profiting when there's momentum upwards - just like it used to be with DotCom... until everybody lost and the economy couldn't recover for years! I know a friend who lost everything, including his house during the DotCom putting every single penny into the stock market, including his 401(k), etc.
I don't follow it but I read somewhere the other day that it now costs tens of dollars worth to actually make a transaction on the blockchain.
If this is true then it seems to me that it's effectively become an inter-bank settlement protocol (which may not be that surprising or bad of an outcome given its inherent latency)
> to actually make a transaction on the blockchain
On which blockchain, exactly? On the Ethereum Mainnet you can transact for a fraction of a cent USD and it'll typically be verified (mined into a block) within a minute (often faster).
On the Bitcoin chain you choose your own transaction fee, but if you're not keeping up with market rates your transaction might take quite a long time to be verified (again, mined into a block).
One thing I learned since learning about cryptocurrencies: NEVER trust "something you read somewhere". A lot of them are propaganda or people who have no idea how it actually works scratching the surface.
Do your own research if you're curious about it and don't want to feel left out. It's never too late to make an actual informed decision afterwards. I've seen so many otherwise intelligent people just keep dismissing Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies without even knowing how they actually work. Don't be those people.
Try to read some books about the actual technology that runs Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies and THEN make a decision whether you think it's a scam or not. Even if you think you think it's a scam or a bubble or whatever, at least then you'll be actually making an independent judgment on a new piece of technology that nobody--including the inventor him/herself--fully understands.
From the outside, as nonuser, I cannot understand how this currency price surge helps the currency as a medium of exchange. Wouldn't this signal everyone to hold on their bitcoins? Doesn't this hurt the adoption in the long run?
Sometimes when I think if humanity met extremely advanced alien civilization - what kind of "stuff" could they use to trade? At one point I thought - it must be information, pieces of information are ultimately valuable. BTC might be something close to that. Foggy thoughts, but its a foggy concept.
Honest question: Is Bitcoin used in significant quantities for "legitimate"/legal transactions? I don't know a single person who has bought anything with a Bitcoin, or received payment. From my non-economic POV, it sure seems like /pure speculation/.
I have received payment for programming work in Bitcoin. I also used it to buy a movie ticket one night when my bank account had run out at the end of the month.
[+] [-] wintom|8 years ago|reply
“We have underestimated the populist movements,” he said. “There is growing unease on how central banks and governments are managing fiat currencies. Ordinary people globally understand why a decentralized asset is the ultimate safe haven.””
That’s the reason for 10k and it will be the reason for 100k. 100k puts the market at cap at a trillion, it’s not that crazy if you remember that Gold is several times that and other than looking good as jewelry it has no other real intrinsic value. No one likes to talk about that though, they like to demonize bitcoin which actually does something gold could never do. Force trust in a world where you can’t trust anything.
[+] [-] will_brown|8 years ago|reply
Just playing devils advocate, but you can't replicate/duplicate gold. On the other hand I could create 21M cryptocoins on a blockchain (calling them Bitcoin2 or even just Bitcoin if it pleases). I can make them function identically, similarly or more efficiently than Bitcoin. I can create a new blockchain (network) or put these coins on an existing blockchain (say the Ethereum blockchain). How much would you pay for all 21M Bitcoin? How much would you pay me to create you 21M Bitcoin2 and transfer 100% of them to you?
You say Bitcoin is $10k because ordinary people understand why a decentralized asset is the ultimate safe haven. If that is your premises it makes little sense to compare Bitcoin to gold, compare Bitcoin to other currencies. Why does Litecoin = $100 and Ether = $500? Bitcoin may do something gold could never do, obviously, but can it do anything any other cryptocoin/token can't?
The real irony is cryptocoins and blockchains couldn't even exist without gold, because it is a necessary component in the machines that created bitcoin, that hosts blockchain nodes, mines, hosts wallets and facilitates transactions.
[+] [-] acchow|8 years ago|reply
Ordinary people have never heard of bitcoin. I have relatives working in finance who don't understand bitcoin.
[+] [-] fullshark|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] dpweb|8 years ago|reply
I believe people often trot out the 'actual worthlessness' of fiat currency, to support a misguided idea that btc must be the democratic antidote which will free countless millions from the financial enslavement of the global financial machine.
Currency is currency BECAUSE its sponsored by government. And the payments system only works because you are indemnified. By the FDIC. By Chase Credit Cards. That is, the evil banks. How so for btc?
BTC hits 10k while US readies to pass tax overhauls to increase an already alarming wealth inequality. Freedom fighters should pick the right battles.
[+] [-] ad_hominem|8 years ago|reply
Unlike fiat cash or gold, you can't spend it without an internet connection (in order to sync up the public ledger and submit the transaction).
You're subject to miners to approve your transactions, which in theory should be democratized, but isn't really since it's based on computing power, which in turn can be bought or centralized in mining pools.
You're subject to a small cabal of developers' whims in having to use the reference client and hardforks to patch up bugs in the protocol. In theory that should also be democratized, with people free to use whatever forks they want, but in practice it's centralized with everyone fleeing to whichever fork all the mining pools go with.
[+] [-] cs702|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] hw|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] bluetwo|8 years ago|reply
And whose job is it to investigate bitcoin fraud and theft? No one.
[+] [-] MarkMc|8 years ago|reply
The practical utility of Bitcoin represents only a very small fraction of its price.
The price of bitcoin has climbed more than tenfold in a year - so what is causing this huge increase in demand? Compared to a year ago, are there 10 times as many drugs being purchased on the darknet with bitcoin? No. Are there 10 times as many Chinese people trying to get their money out of China? No. If anything, the utility of bitcoin has diminished as the transaction cost has risen.
The only reasonable explanation is that most people are buying bitcoin simply to sell at a higher price later. In that regard it's the same as gold, but also the same as every bubble asset in history.
[+] [-] mtgx|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] thisisit|8 years ago|reply
I think it is in everyone's favor to ignore and not give credence to things like these. There is an article on how Finland has been able to achieve this:
http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/03/01/why-is-finland-able-to-f...
For people wanting to see a video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wwAzU5ji-CM
[+] [-] guelo|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] pishpash|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] cbau|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] unknown|8 years ago|reply
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[+] [-] crsmith|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] kimjongman|8 years ago|reply
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[+] [-] Cookingboy|8 years ago|reply
But I really can’t see how this is not just an instrument for some people to get very rich in a very short amount of time on the back of others.
Can it reach 100k? Absolutely. 1M? Who knows. 10M/BTC? Someone on Reddit said it will get close. But in the end I do think it will be remembered as a global mania instead of the creation of a new asset class.
I do believe in block chain and the value of crypto currency in general, but I just don’t see how BTC will be the winning asset in the end, if anything Etherum has a lot more solid foundation and is a lot more scalable technically.
[+] [-] deorder|8 years ago|reply
https://mobile.twitter.com/bitfinexed (One of the people monitoring the situation)
https://np.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/7g5yml/my_investigation... (Some more info)
Make sure you are able to get out on time if needed. Investigate and decide for yourself. There is a lot of censoring and vote manipulation going on. I am not going to point fingers, but just that you are aware.
[+] [-] narrator|8 years ago|reply
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1532670
One of the posters says the feds will shut it down. I also thought this too. This remains one of the most enduring mysteries of Bitcoin to me. Why has the government taken such a hands off approach?
[+] [-] sillysaurus3|8 years ago|reply
It's not quite that clear cut, but it's not too far off.
[+] [-] mrb|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] ChuckMcM|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] jacquesm|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] gtrubetskoy|8 years ago|reply
[1] https://grisha.org/blog/2017/09/22/bitcoin-value/
[2] https://grisha.org/blog/2017/09/25/bitcoin-value-2/
[+] [-] wallace_f|8 years ago|reply
The conspiracy theorist in me wants to say that the best way to undermine trust in cryptocurrencies is to create market turmoil. This would not just undermine trust in cryptocurrency, but serve to embolden the Fed's 'Price Stability' justification.
[+] [-] QML|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] posedge|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] scott_karana|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] goseeastarwar|8 years ago|reply
It's called talking your book, which isn't illegal, but wildly disingenuous. FOMO is why the number keeps going up, these other reasons are window dressing for utter nonsense.
[+] [-] bluepirate|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] cjensen|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] jacquesm|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] LeoPanthera|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] tehlike|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] nikolay|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] nly|8 years ago|reply
If this is true then it seems to me that it's effectively become an inter-bank settlement protocol (which may not be that surprising or bad of an outcome given its inherent latency)
[+] [-] benjamincburns|8 years ago|reply
On which blockchain, exactly? On the Ethereum Mainnet you can transact for a fraction of a cent USD and it'll typically be verified (mined into a block) within a minute (often faster).
On the Bitcoin chain you choose your own transaction fee, but if you're not keeping up with market rates your transaction might take quite a long time to be verified (again, mined into a block).
[+] [-] cocktailpeanuts|8 years ago|reply
Do your own research if you're curious about it and don't want to feel left out. It's never too late to make an actual informed decision afterwards. I've seen so many otherwise intelligent people just keep dismissing Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies without even knowing how they actually work. Don't be those people.
Try to read some books about the actual technology that runs Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies and THEN make a decision whether you think it's a scam or not. Even if you think you think it's a scam or a bubble or whatever, at least then you'll be actually making an independent judgment on a new piece of technology that nobody--including the inventor him/herself--fully understands.
[+] [-] 6nf|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] fourstar|8 years ago|reply
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[+] [-] bluepirate|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] HN15718653|8 years ago|reply
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[+] [-] wslh|8 years ago|reply