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Show HN: Ad Revenue Prediction Tool for Side Projects

58 points| sixtypoundhound | 8 years ago |marginhound.com | reply

18 comments

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[+] Guest9812398|8 years ago|reply
I'll compare the tool with two of my sites that run advertising.

#1. The tool estimates 1.5 million a month in revenue. Actual earnings are 6,000.

#2. The tool estimates 6,600 per month in revenue. Actual earnings are 400.

I get those numbers while using conservative prediction options. With the first site, the estimate is 250x higher than actual revenues. It's hard to even call it an estimate at that point.

I'm confident my sites are well optimized. I run header bidding with most of the major ad networks (Google, AppNexus, AOL, etc). I've done countless A/B tests. I've sold direct campaigns to Fortune 500 companies. I frequently Skype with other well known people in my industry (they're pulling in millions annually on advertising) and we talk numbers for our different projects.

In short, I just want to caution people these estimates are likely incredibly inaccurate.

[+] sixtypoundhound|8 years ago|reply
Hmm - mind sharing the settings behind your calculations? Surprised the error is several orders of magnitude. (PM is fine, if Hacker News has an option like that)

The model behind tool was based on a decently large / diverse data set of small websites; it lines up well with public information from sources such as site brokers.

(and of course, I run sites as well and plugged my own data through the tool during the validation process)

What kind of traffic are you getting on those sites?

Probably also worth asking if there are site design or traffic factors that reduce advertising interest? (for example, forums and downloads may have lower intent)

[+] soared|8 years ago|reply
Looks good. I don't do anything on the publisher side but one thing I see people always misunderstand is this: You don't just put some ads on your site and then you're done. You need to analyze performance and optimize accordingly. Try different ad sizes, vendors, locations, frequencies etc.
[+] davidw|8 years ago|reply
Ads are not a great way to monetize many things - it's better to have some kind of product/service that people actually pay you money for. It creates a much shorter feedback loop between you and your customers.
[+] styfle|8 years ago|reply
Where does CarbonAds fall in this spectrum? I want something similar for my website but I don’t get enough traffic to sign up with Carbon.
[+] geoffreyhale|8 years ago|reply
This makes me want to start yet another website.
[+] 659087|8 years ago|reply
It makes me want to ramp up my efforts to get my friends and family members to install ad blockers, and also makes me even happier about the piholes I gave to several people as gifts the other day.
[+] CryoLogic|8 years ago|reply
IMO we need a good micropayments solution where I can pay/tip a few pennies per good article or site instead of having to subscribe for dollar amounts or view tons of ads.

I am hoping IOTA can bring this.

[+] Jack000|8 years ago|reply
here's some data from my niche site (colormind.io)

sessions per month: 43000

pageviews per session: 2.3

predicted ad rates: 7.5cpm

actual ad rates: 0.72cpm

actual ctr: 0.27% (280 clicks)

predicted revenue: 742

actual revenue (november): 73.87 (carbon ads)

wonder if it's really possible to 10x ad revenue with a tracking ad network. I suspect this might require much more intrusive ads though.