The middle class can no longer afford to remain in CA. A combination of egregious housing policies and other anti-bussines/anti-people regulations stifle the economic well being of it's inhabitants. It's sad to see people having to leave behind their friends and families, for all this. Not only are people leaving, but the birth rate for millineials in CA hasn't been this low since the great depression: http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-ln-birth-rate-...
I'm surprised this isn't covered more, but this talk of boosting 'affordable', actually government subsidized housing as a solution doesn't seem like an actual solution to me either.
how many middle class families are going to register with a government entity, stay under low yearly income limits to 'qualify' for affordable housing? number of kids you have in your family is factored in as well...becoming a metric that factors into your qualification for housing.
seems sort of orwellian to me. we should be creating bills to expedite all housing. not just subsidized housing.
a solution is on the table— sb-827. please research it. californians (and i am one too) need to stop complaining and start fixing things. this bill fixes things. it needs our attention and support.
UPDATE: sb-827 prevents local governments in california from banning density near public transit. it represents the most radical housing bill in recent california history, because it rebalances control from hyperlocal municipalities to the state level. it could unlock 3m housing units in a state building <100k a year. that's 30 years of pent-up supply, and it could actually affect market prices.
[California has been experiencing a years-long downward trend that likely stems from the recession, a drop in teenage pregnancies and an increase in people attending college and taking longer to graduate, therefore putting off having children, said Walter Schwarm, a demographer at the Department of Finance. When people do complete their schooling, they're interested in taking some time to pursue their careers or other goals, he said.]
Except recession everything else that is contributing to lower birth rate seems side effect of progress.
Coming from south-eastern US and visiting Mountain View / Palo Alto on business several times, the property valuations are amazing to me. Poorly maintained looking ranch homes with bad landscaping and giant Land Rovers, Porsches, Jags in the driveway or on the street. Downtown looks almost like my semi-rural hometown except there are full parking garages and you have to park under an over-pass. It's a weird place.
> but the birth rate for millineials in CA hasn't been this low since the great depression
I think this might need a rewording to convey whatever idea you were trying to convey, because I have a hunch there weren't many millennials around during the Great Depression. :-)
> The middle class can no longer afford to remain in CA
It seems like the immigration is mostly the middle and upper middle class, as those terms are most often used [0]. The out-migration looks to be mostly below national median income.
[0] which, sure, is the upper income end of the working class and not the petit bourgeoisie, for the most part, but aside from me, no one seems to use “middle class” to mean that in the US.
> The middle class can no longer afford to remain in CA
But that's not what most of the data shows. The bulk of the data shows lower-income, lower education Californians moving out. The strongest peak is for minimum wage incomes.
While middle class incomes are still shown as leaving CA, it's far less than those at the lower end. For me the starkest and most concerning contrast is not wealthy vs. poor, but young vs. old.
> The middle class can no longer afford to remain in CA. A combination of egregious housing policies and other anti-bussines/anti-people regulations
To me this doesn't make sense. Middle class can't survive in CA because too many people get paid middle class and up in CA. Is it 'anti-people' to pay teachers 70+k? Or is a state like WV more 'pro-people' where teachers are going on strike because they get no raises. There are a lot of wealthy businesses in CA. You have to be richer than in other places to actually feel rich.
truth is, the problem is too much competition and there always has to be somebody at the bottom. Look at the inflow of people. People with high incomes and advanced degrees.
It seems like this is now the middle class experiencing the same pain that gentrification inflicts on the lower class as the cost of housing continues to climb.
it costs too much to live here because of zoning. zoning is largely driven by local governments, dominated by homeowners who benefit when prices rise.
but california might fix it with sb-827, which would prevent local governments from banning density near transit hubs. california builds <100k units per year. McKinsey did a deep dive that shows that sb-827 could unlock 3 million units—this would be transformational.
If you (as in the generic you, not the comment I'm responding to) live in CA, and care about this stuff, you should get involved with the YIMBY folks there. They're doing great work, and achieving real results.
1) Construction labor is expensive in California, a good number of occupations (electricians, etc.) are unionized, which leaves little alternative.
2) Code compliance is expensive, and not just in some bureaucratic-red-tape way. Coastal California is on a fault line, so there are earthquake safety regulations, fire code requirements, etc. Folks from Millennium Tower in SF probably wish there were more regulations as far as ground inspections and surveys.
5) Modern construction materials are not getting cheaper.
6) Unless you're a giant construction firm, there are waiting times associated with heavy equipment, such as building cranes, bulldozers, excavators, etc. as it's typically leased and it might be contracted out to another job.
Unless you are able to procure a major cost advantage on building materials, labor costs or skirt a few regulations in the building code and get away with it, you're unlikely to end up with very cheap housing in a major city.
I vacated California for New Mexico 14 years ago (No regrets). The price of a U-Haul was so high that I was able to buy a used, good condition 12 foot cargo trailer for about 20% more than the price of a same sized rental. I still have it and use it as a big storage locker. When prices get that lopsided it's time to go shopping.
Although, you should expect this with gentrification even when population remains the same, since wealthy people moving in are more likely to use professional movers.
Native Texan here. I and many other Texans I know welcome newcomers with open arms.
We all just have one message though: Please do not turn Texas into the places y'all are leaving. There's a reason y'all are leaving after all.
EDIT: Newcomers: We generally don't care what anyone does or thinks, we only care when people try to force us to conform to their beliefs, including what to do with our money, eg) raising taxes.
Wow, the back-and-forth on upvotes/downvotes is crazy. Sorry, didn't mean for this to be controverisal.
I suspect Texas will wish it had California's problems in a decade. California is experiencing a brain gain [1] as the best and the brightest relocate to the state en mass. Texas is meanwhile experiencing a brain drain by experting college educated and college-seeking citizens en masse. A quick look at industries in decline (oil, coal, meat) and industries on the rise (automotive, tech, healthcare) does not suggest that Texas is the place to be or that these people leaving for Texas are doing so voluntarily.
On the east side of Washington in Spokane, the houses are going up due to the influx of Californians. Average price was around 120k, now you can see houses in the 300k for entry level with basic kitchens.
Also, lots of modern brew pubs are popping up that easily charge Seattle prices for food and beer. (Way too expensive for locals)
Had a co-worker who's family moved up from California and bought a 600k house on 10 acres. The price per acre has been going up like crazy, use to be 2-3K per acre in the rural areas,its upto 10K+ now, even 20K, for forest land in the sticks, when 5 acre lots going for 100k, thats nuts, no well or power...
Crazy, since the local wages don't even support those price.
This is my fear as well. As a Californian who's looking to move to Texas at some point in the future, I really hope the people leaving aren't taking "California values" to Texas with them.
>Families with kids and those with only a high school education predominate among those moving from California to its top destination states (Texas, Arizona, and Nevada). College-educated 18 to 35 year olds led the way among those moving to California from its top feeder states (New York, Illinois, and New Jersey).
"The graph below shows data from the Internal Revenue Service on the movement of income tax filers in and out of California since 1990. (Data on tax filers does not cover the entire population because some people do not earn enough income to necessitate filing taxes.)"
It also doesn't cover populations who don't pay taxes, and who get paid under the table.
The graph introduced with that paragraph comes from IRS data, the total population estimate (and the other material that is not that graph) is derived from the American Community Survey (which is not restricted to tax filers.)
California is also losing residents by discouraging migration via high taxes. For example, I had two job offers: one in California and one in Washington. Since this was a $200k+ job, that income tax in CA would have cost me $40 grand per year. Suffice it to say I now live in Washington.
> California is also losing residents by discouraging migration via high taxes.
California, despite high and progressive income taxation, has net in-migration at high income levels. If high taxes are keeping people out, it's things like gas taxes, road tolls, and sales taxes, that are regeressive relative to income.
You appear to be quite bad at math, as other comments have demonstrated, so it's probably better for California that you now live in Washington.
Snark aside, CA taxes do pay for a significant amount of government services. It may not always seem like it, but CA is the third largest state by area and the largest by population.
It's no wonder that high-earning individuals are moving into California. A few numbers I ran across on the web:
- Bay Area economy is growing 3X (!!!) faster than average in US.
- Santa Clara region has an income average of $98,000, top 5 amonst the nation
- Average salary for Software Engineers for San Francisco is $210,000
This of course doesn't bode well for mid to lower income citizens, who now have to move out as far as antioch or stockton to afford a home. Bad for a family of 4, still doable for singles that can room with roommates near work. We really do need to have more housing in regions that are underdeveloped and soon will be served by the BART extension, google's building foray in downtown san jose, buildout in the caltrain stops between Redwood City and South San Francisco, etc.
I appreciate the effort that went into making this, but I get really annoyed with analyses like this that show heatmaps comparing highly heterogeneous groups (in this case, states, income groups, age groups, and education groups) that use an absolute scale. Of course absolute migration looks extreme in NY and Texas compared to, say Missouri or Iowa. This would be a much more interesting story if they used a lift metric that controlled for state/group size and/or state/group migration volume.
I'm sure there is a $$$ number that would convince me to move to California, but I'm not sure there are many companies willing to pay it and I would be super worried the entire time I was there about possible unemployment.
I feel like there is going to be a blood bath in the Bay Area if we're actually in a bubble and it bursts. The next five to ten years should be an interesting ride.
A cursory read of the graphics indicates that people with graduate degrees and higher-paying jobs are forcing the people with less money and less education out, and they are moving to states with lower costs of living.
It's also noteworthy that a lot of people from Illinois are moving to California even though California income taxes are higher. It seems to me that the California outmigration is mostly from economically depressed parts of California, not from LA or Bay Area.
It would be really interesting to see the difference in trends between the Bay Area, LA, and the more rural areas. Seems the housing price issue is much more of a problem in the Bay Area.
According to Trulia's market trend reports, both LA and Sacramento's median housing prices have increased faster in the last five years than San Jose's: LA went from $400K to $779K, a 94% increase, while Sacramento went from $143K to $305K, a 113% increase. San Jose went from $490K to $865K, a "mere" 77% increase. Stockton also more than doubled in the same period.
Obviously one could argue San Jose was already overpriced, but in terms of trends, California's housing prices are kind of on fire -- you don't have to be in the SF Bay area for costs to be rising much faster than the national trend. (Which is still higher than I would have guessed: the median price over that five-year period across the entire country rose from $154K to $205K.)
Texas and Oregon are starting to look pretty nice. Too bad about the cannabis laws in Texas, though. As soon as I persuade the court to terminate my probation I'll consider selling a few properties and getting out of here, too.
Portland Uber drivers complained about this phenomenon when I visited a while ago. Bay area transplants were buying into Portland through new high rise developments that locals detest.
This has been the attitude for years in Oregon. It's not just in the cities through new high rise developments; in the rural areas, they buy out the properties for cash -- generally above asking price -- which jacks up the prices out of reach for the locals.
Frankly, it happens everywhere that the cost of living is lower.
[+] [-] pascalxus|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] capkutay|8 years ago|reply
how many middle class families are going to register with a government entity, stay under low yearly income limits to 'qualify' for affordable housing? number of kids you have in your family is factored in as well...becoming a metric that factors into your qualification for housing.
seems sort of orwellian to me. we should be creating bills to expedite all housing. not just subsidized housing.
http://sd11.senate.ca.gov/news/20170123-senator-wiener-relea...
[+] [-] krausejj|8 years ago|reply
UPDATE: sb-827 prevents local governments in california from banning density near public transit. it represents the most radical housing bill in recent california history, because it rebalances control from hyperlocal municipalities to the state level. it could unlock 3m housing units in a state building <100k a year. that's 30 years of pent-up supply, and it could actually affect market prices.
[+] [-] kumarm|8 years ago|reply
Except recession everything else that is contributing to lower birth rate seems side effect of progress.
[+] [-] yakz|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] mehrdadn|8 years ago|reply
I think this might need a rewording to convey whatever idea you were trying to convey, because I have a hunch there weren't many millennials around during the Great Depression. :-)
[+] [-] dragonwriter|8 years ago|reply
It seems like the immigration is mostly the middle and upper middle class, as those terms are most often used [0]. The out-migration looks to be mostly below national median income.
[0] which, sure, is the upper income end of the working class and not the petit bourgeoisie, for the most part, but aside from me, no one seems to use “middle class” to mean that in the US.
[+] [-] jahewson|8 years ago|reply
But that's not what most of the data shows. The bulk of the data shows lower-income, lower education Californians moving out. The strongest peak is for minimum wage incomes.
While middle class incomes are still shown as leaving CA, it's far less than those at the lower end. For me the starkest and most concerning contrast is not wealthy vs. poor, but young vs. old.
[+] [-] JustAnotherPat|8 years ago|reply
To me this doesn't make sense. Middle class can't survive in CA because too many people get paid middle class and up in CA. Is it 'anti-people' to pay teachers 70+k? Or is a state like WV more 'pro-people' where teachers are going on strike because they get no raises. There are a lot of wealthy businesses in CA. You have to be richer than in other places to actually feel rich.
truth is, the problem is too much competition and there always has to be somebody at the bottom. Look at the inflow of people. People with high incomes and advanced degrees.
[+] [-] ddlatham|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] krausejj|8 years ago|reply
it costs too much to live here because of zoning. zoning is largely driven by local governments, dominated by homeowners who benefit when prices rise.
but california might fix it with sb-827, which would prevent local governments from banning density near transit hubs. california builds <100k units per year. McKinsey did a deep dive that shows that sb-827 could unlock 3 million units—this would be transformational.
https://standupcalifornia.com (this is my site supporting sb-827)
please, if you care about california, learn about these issues and support sb-827!!!
[+] [-] davidw|8 years ago|reply
The statistic that always amazes me is how Tokyo built more housing than the entire state of California in 2014.
https://www.vox.com/2016/8/8/12390048/san-francisco-housing-...
If you (as in the generic you, not the comment I'm responding to) live in CA, and care about this stuff, you should get involved with the YIMBY folks there. They're doing great work, and achieving real results.
[+] [-] nosuchthing|8 years ago|reply
it appears to penalize the submission for voting directly on your linked HN page
[+] [-] prostoalex|8 years ago|reply
I am somewhat skeptical of a large complex problem having an easy, magical, fix-all solution.
LA construction (downtown area specifically, which is close to transit and zoned for pretty much anything) is booming https://la.curbed.com/2017/1/23/14364926/cranes-los-angeles-... but the dream of the dirt-cheap units remains a pie in the sky http://www.ladowntownnews.com/news/when-it-comes-to-affordab...
And it's not because developers dislike money.
1) Construction labor is expensive in California, a good number of occupations (electricians, etc.) are unionized, which leaves little alternative.
2) Code compliance is expensive, and not just in some bureaucratic-red-tape way. Coastal California is on a fault line, so there are earthquake safety regulations, fire code requirements, etc. Folks from Millennium Tower in SF probably wish there were more regulations as far as ground inspections and surveys.
3) Parking spaces are expensive to build and are still required by the building codes. As millennials mature, public transit use is declining and car ownership is on the rise https://www.scpr.org/news/2018/01/31/80354/transit-ridership...
4) Land near transit hubs is not cheap.
5) Modern construction materials are not getting cheaper.
6) Unless you're a giant construction firm, there are waiting times associated with heavy equipment, such as building cranes, bulldozers, excavators, etc. as it's typically leased and it might be contracted out to another job.
Unless you are able to procure a major cost advantage on building materials, labor costs or skirt a few regulations in the building code and get away with it, you're unlikely to end up with very cheap housing in a major city.
[+] [-] kbrackbill|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] stevenwoo|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] hirundo|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] tlb|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Casseres|8 years ago|reply
We all just have one message though: Please do not turn Texas into the places y'all are leaving. There's a reason y'all are leaving after all.
EDIT: Newcomers: We generally don't care what anyone does or thinks, we only care when people try to force us to conform to their beliefs, including what to do with our money, eg) raising taxes.
Wow, the back-and-forth on upvotes/downvotes is crazy. Sorry, didn't mean for this to be controverisal.
[+] [-] dnomad|8 years ago|reply
[1] http://www.ppic.org/blog/californias-brain-gain/
[+] [-] IronWolve|8 years ago|reply
Also, lots of modern brew pubs are popping up that easily charge Seattle prices for food and beer. (Way too expensive for locals)
Had a co-worker who's family moved up from California and bought a 600k house on 10 acres. The price per acre has been going up like crazy, use to be 2-3K per acre in the rural areas,its upto 10K+ now, even 20K, for forest land in the sticks, when 5 acre lots going for 100k, thats nuts, no well or power...
Crazy, since the local wages don't even support those price.
[+] [-] hindsightbias|8 years ago|reply
Too bad Texas is too progressive to have a Prop 13 - I can't go back anywhere in TX w/o people whinging about their property taxes or toll road fees.
[+] [-] antimatter|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] staunch|8 years ago|reply
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[+] [-] supercanuck|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] mullen|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] djrogers|8 years ago|reply
"The graph below shows data from the Internal Revenue Service on the movement of income tax filers in and out of California since 1990. (Data on tax filers does not cover the entire population because some people do not earn enough income to necessitate filing taxes.)"
It also doesn't cover populations who don't pay taxes, and who get paid under the table.
[+] [-] dragonwriter|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] unknown|8 years ago|reply
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[+] [-] Taniwha|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] all_blue_chucks|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] sureshv|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] adamrezich|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] dragonwriter|8 years ago|reply
California, despite high and progressive income taxation, has net in-migration at high income levels. If high taxes are keeping people out, it's things like gas taxes, road tolls, and sales taxes, that are regeressive relative to income.
[+] [-] gamblor956|8 years ago|reply
Snark aside, CA taxes do pay for a significant amount of government services. It may not always seem like it, but CA is the third largest state by area and the largest by population.
[+] [-] gumby|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] anthonyleecook|8 years ago|reply
- Bay Area economy is growing 3X (!!!) faster than average in US.
- Santa Clara region has an income average of $98,000, top 5 amonst the nation
- Average salary for Software Engineers for San Francisco is $210,000
This of course doesn't bode well for mid to lower income citizens, who now have to move out as far as antioch or stockton to afford a home. Bad for a family of 4, still doable for singles that can room with roommates near work. We really do need to have more housing in regions that are underdeveloped and soon will be served by the BART extension, google's building foray in downtown san jose, buildout in the caltrain stops between Redwood City and South San Francisco, etc.
[+] [-] higginsc|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] joelrunyon|8 years ago|reply
I wish San Diego would just make it's own state, adopt Texas' taxes and it'd be hands-down the best place to be in the US.
[+] [-] meddlepal|8 years ago|reply
I feel like there is going to be a blood bath in the Bay Area if we're actually in a bubble and it bursts. The next five to ten years should be an interesting ride.
[+] [-] logfromblammo|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] randyrand|8 years ago|reply
There are multiple ways to interpret though.
[+] [-] vasilipupkin|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] cody3222|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] chipotle_coyote|8 years ago|reply
Obviously one could argue San Jose was already overpriced, but in terms of trends, California's housing prices are kind of on fire -- you don't have to be in the SF Bay area for costs to be rising much faster than the national trend. (Which is still higher than I would have guessed: the median price over that five-year period across the entire country rose from $154K to $205K.)
[+] [-] DoctorBit|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] marcell|8 years ago|reply
From TFA: http://lao.ca.gov/Blog/Media/Image/957
Net out migration is at a fairly low level compared to other times since 1990.
[+] [-] rootw0rm|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Dowwie|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] taborj|8 years ago|reply
Frankly, it happens everywhere that the cost of living is lower.