This is the beginning of the Big Churn. Less top talent will want to be associated with facebook. Already even a few more privacy clueless friends family members are deleting their accounts. Adverts were always so low yeild, and fb pages 'because we need one'. Now that is all changing due to perception. The FTC, stocks falling, are further indicatuons of falling trust. And all business is built on trust.
While I'm not top talent, and haven't been pursued by Facebook, I've always wondered why anyone would want to be associated with them. Other than as a status symbol in tech. I've never thought of them as anything less than a reprehensible company.
> Less top talent will want to be associated with facebook.
I don't necessarily consider myself top-talent, but I'm personally avoiding facebook's open source projects (e.g. React) because I don't approve of their company values.
>Less top talent will want to be associated with facebook
How certain is this? Whether you like what Facebook does or not, you can't deny their engineering talent is top tier. I don't even use Facebook but I'd still want to work there just to work with the people there and the environment. Companies like Facebook and Google are pretty engineer friendly, more so than other companies. I don't think this event will be the tipping point for top talent to leave Facebook.
The share price is now the same as it was mid last year. That means investors are just as confident now as they were then. What information do you have that they don't? Surely you're not claiming to be smarter than them?
Facebook wasn't built on trust, obviously. I would rather say it was built on the ignorance of the masses. There are a few people who never created a Facebook account, because they understood the consequence of a big American platform having all your contacts and activities.
Regarding the stock price -exactly just because I am 'shorting 'it- (betting that it will drop for the non-traders), it is now a good 'BUY' opportunity. If FB gets serious about putting their ducks in order, they will end up even better than before.
And I hope they do so, so that others can also learn that honesty and ethics DO pay in life.
"Adverts were always so low yeild" - Maybe for large corps, but FB is by far the best advertising platform for smaller companies that don't just shovel money at ads.
What's interesting for me is that I finally deleted my account. I never used it anyway but now I feel empowered to say "I don't have an FB account" and that's ok.
I think this is a sea change - there will never again be this dominant of a social network imho. From now on the space will be fractured into niches (AngelList, LinkedIn, NextDoor, etc...).
I did the same. While I used to use my account regularly 5+ years ago, my feed was just full of stupid updates. People posting food pics, family commenting on news, and old viral videos, and lots and lots of ads. So, hey, I deleted my account. While Facebook isn't loosing any revenue from me, it certainly didn't ever attract me back into the active user status. Good riddance.
It's too easy for some of you to get excited about one giant corporation taking a rather public beating. The anti-facebook tribe is strong in the Hacker News community.
Plus, what SV company wasn't a free-for-all of user data in 2012-2013? I don't know if any of you remember the Path app's lawsuit that triggered Apple's lockdown of API permissions. Apple, who suddenly got religion about privacy, but they too learned from their mistakes.
Anyway, I'm not here to argue in favor of FB, but the stock going down is pretty self perpetuated right now. It's algorithmically triggered in response to bad news in the press, that then generates more bad press like this and so on. I'm not sure where the bottom will be here, but I'm pretty sure it'll reverse course soon enough.
You’re just doing a really great impression of someone who is? My initial reaction was an unrealistic belief that you and others singing a similar tune work for FB, but I doubt that. I think it’s a very rational fear that FB is the first domino to fall, possibly along with Uber. Fear and self-interest, and the simple desire not to see your industry facing a prolonged public backlash ending in regulation makes more sense as a motive.
Market has been choppy since February but FB moving down will bring other stocks down with it. Google was down over the same period BECAUSE of Facebook. Facebook is very much a bellwether company like it or not.
Except NAZDAQ rallied today, so did Google. Facebook did not. Google's decline was part of the halo effect cast over big data techs as a result of the facebook debacle, and indexes in general were down over fears of pending trade wars with China that have now eased slightly. Facebook's decline continued despite these other factors getting some relief. Its issues are all its own at the moment.
I fail to see how this will seriously damage them. They already own the two biggest alternatives to facebook - Instagram for pictures and WhatsApp for communication. More people are using their services than ever before and more people are getting access to the internet in developing countries.
I have no idea where the FB stock is going. I don't think the company is in trouble, but likely to continue shifting focus. The good thing for them is that their products complement each other pretty well.
FB the product has been changing quite a bit. Many people don't use it anymore to see what their "friends" are doing. They use it to follow certain groups of interest. For me it's becoming something between Reddit, Meetup, and Craigslist. (I don't check my FB often)
Instagram (which I don't use) is still strong in what FB used to be, but the friendship model is more lax like in Twitter. The demographics also complement FB well.
WhatsApp (which I use daily for everything) is huge all over the world. It's also catching up in the US. Besides the 1on1 communication, it's also big on groups. But the WahtsApp groups are quite different from the FB groups. They tend to be smaller and more personal. It's not really by design, it's mainly because it's connected to people's phones. They just need to figure out how to monetize it. The potential is huge. (but first please improve the calling quality, it's so bad)
WhatsApp is a great product but among the three the most easily replaceable. But that's not going to happen any time soon. FB were smart keeping it independent and separate (many users don't even know they own it). One thing I really dislike about Google is that they merge everything under one umbrella.
I don't believe that recruiting is a big problem. Their immediate problem is that money isn't coming in. When you don't have money coming in you're not worried about hiring more people.
I don't think you really need the best of the best programmers to keep Facebook running. Other than the infrastructure needed to support the massive number of users Facebook has, I doubt the rest of the work done over there is really much more difficult than work done anywhere else. And I doubt they'll have to improve the infrastructure very much any more, seeing as they've much got as many users now as they ever are going to have. If anything it will get easier over time as more and more people leave the platform.
Facebook's offers are still higher value than Google/Startups. And Google (although not the company in question) has nearly as questionable data use as Facebook.
I genuinely believe that advertisers are only pulling out because it's the PR thing to do. There are many other companies that would love to take advantage of a less competitive bid for Facebook ad space and I have no doubt they will be taking advantage of it and will continue to spend boats of money on Facebook.
Facebook didnt loose $100B in 10 days: it's market value dropped in response to bad news. Stocks go up and down all the time on companies that remain around a long time. It's still making piles of money. Its users have a huge, switching cost to block a transition, too.
I hope they continue to lose money. That's a pretty negative feeling to have towards a business for me too. However, they started harvesting text and call info back in 2006; that is about the time I first started looking into anything technology related. I thought fb was terrific as it grew and helped enable more connectivity. Now that it has been shown to be true tho, the invasion of privacy is absolutely ludicrous.
Will non-tech people be fed up with their data being abused by tech/ad companies? If this trend goes viral (ironic, eh?) it could mean less ad money. Advertising has had it really good compared to older days of TV and radio with targeted online communities and data about them.
Maybe this just sparks less VC investment towards freemium products?
This looks like big news but I think it is merely a small correction of its market value. For better or worse, they are going to stay for a very long time. At least from the current generation a significant amount of people will cling onto it for the rest of their lives like others do with cigarettes.
I wouldn't particularly mind if it lost another 100-200b in market cap. It's gotta be enough to have a long term affect, and to teach the other social media giants a lesson so they don't replicate the same behavior. Unfortunately the might just get better at hiding it.
Facebook isn't going anywhere for a long time. They'll retain the privacy-clueless fossils with FB. They'll keep the aspirational set with IG. Anything even remotely competitive or alternative they'll just throw cash at and snap up.
I’m impressed at how misleading this headline is. If you didn’t know better, you might think Facebook’s bank accounts contain $100 billion less than they did a week ago. What they actually mean is that the stock price is down ~20%.
So while it seems like $100B dollars is a large sum, it's really about 12% ish of the market valuation. Yes it hurts, but no, it's not the end of the company.
Think of it this way. How much money will FB have to spend to rebrand itself and fix the privacy issues. $1 Billion, maybe $2 Billion?
[+] [-] nugi|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] gonehome|8 years ago|reply
I'm buying FB call options.
Facebook's network effect is extremely strong - this is also not even including their other assets (Instagram, Whatsapp, Oculus).
The API access was in violation of terms of service and the ability to access data through friends via the FB graph has already been closed.
[+] [-] brailsafe|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] user5994461|8 years ago|reply
The hype is Instagram now, which was incidentally bought by Facebook. A brilliant move.
[+] [-] amelius|8 years ago|reply
I don't necessarily consider myself top-talent, but I'm personally avoiding facebook's open source projects (e.g. React) because I don't approve of their company values.
[+] [-] htormey|8 years ago|reply
1) YouTube
2) Instagram
3) messenger
4) google maps
5) Snapchat
6) Facebook
7) Netflix
8) Bitmoji (Snapchat)
9) Gmail
10) Spotify
These apps change when something major happens. When storms happen you see weather and walkie talkie apps shoot to the top.
In sports seasons you see sports apps for baseball/football etc shoot up.
When crypto was going crazy over Xmas, coinbase was number one for a few days.
Back to school prompts education apps to go to the top for a while.
The public doesn’t seem to care enough to ditch social media apps right now. Either that or perhaps a good alternative doesn’t exist yet.
[+] [-] juicy-fruit|8 years ago|reply
How certain is this? Whether you like what Facebook does or not, you can't deny their engineering talent is top tier. I don't even use Facebook but I'd still want to work there just to work with the people there and the environment. Companies like Facebook and Google are pretty engineer friendly, more so than other companies. I don't think this event will be the tipping point for top talent to leave Facebook.
[+] [-] lopmotr|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] some_account|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] nkkollaw|8 years ago|reply
People don't pay attention to things forever. You ever read about net neutrality..?
Just wait until the media shift to the next big obsession, and everything will be back to normal.
[+] [-] HenryBemis|8 years ago|reply
And I hope they do so, so that others can also learn that honesty and ethics DO pay in life.
[+] [-] throwawaylalala|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] heedlessly2|8 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] AdamN|8 years ago|reply
I think this is a sea change - there will never again be this dominant of a social network imho. From now on the space will be fractured into niches (AngelList, LinkedIn, NextDoor, etc...).
[+] [-] pseudometa|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] toasterlovin|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] adjunctme|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] jarjoura|8 years ago|reply
Plus, what SV company wasn't a free-for-all of user data in 2012-2013? I don't know if any of you remember the Path app's lawsuit that triggered Apple's lockdown of API permissions. Apple, who suddenly got religion about privacy, but they too learned from their mistakes.
Anyway, I'm not here to argue in favor of FB, but the stock going down is pretty self perpetuated right now. It's algorithmically triggered in response to bad news in the press, that then generates more bad press like this and so on. I'm not sure where the bottom will be here, but I'm pretty sure it'll reverse course soon enough.
[+] [-] domevent|8 years ago|reply
You’re just doing a really great impression of someone who is? My initial reaction was an unrealistic belief that you and others singing a similar tune work for FB, but I doubt that. I think it’s a very rational fear that FB is the first domino to fall, possibly along with Uber. Fear and self-interest, and the simple desire not to see your industry facing a prolonged public backlash ending in regulation makes more sense as a motive.
Is that about right?
[+] [-] jlmorton|8 years ago|reply
Best not to take broad market movements and try to ascribe specific market expectations to individual companies.
[+] [-] tylermenezes|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] bitxbit|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] unknown|8 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] ineedasername|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] otalp|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] chrischen|8 years ago|reply
iOS users do use iMessage and Android use Hangouts.
[+] [-] ngsayjoe|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] tinyhouse|8 years ago|reply
FB the product has been changing quite a bit. Many people don't use it anymore to see what their "friends" are doing. They use it to follow certain groups of interest. For me it's becoming something between Reddit, Meetup, and Craigslist. (I don't check my FB often)
Instagram (which I don't use) is still strong in what FB used to be, but the friendship model is more lax like in Twitter. The demographics also complement FB well.
WhatsApp (which I use daily for everything) is huge all over the world. It's also catching up in the US. Besides the 1on1 communication, it's also big on groups. But the WahtsApp groups are quite different from the FB groups. They tend to be smaller and more personal. It's not really by design, it's mainly because it's connected to people's phones. They just need to figure out how to monetize it. The potential is huge. (but first please improve the calling quality, it's so bad)
WhatsApp is a great product but among the three the most easily replaceable. But that's not going to happen any time soon. FB were smart keeping it independent and separate (many users don't even know they own it). One thing I really dislike about Google is that they merge everything under one umbrella.
[+] [-] AdamN|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] otalp|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] brad0|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] symlinkk|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] unknown|8 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] adsfasdfsad111|8 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] adamnemecek|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] CryoLogic|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] kin|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] nickpsecurity|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] reaperducer|8 years ago|reply
Maybe in the future, when some PHB asks development to add a questionable data gathering function to a platform they can say, "Remember Facebook?"
[+] [-] stickdogg|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] f2n|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] matt_s|8 years ago|reply
Will non-tech people be fed up with their data being abused by tech/ad companies? If this trend goes viral (ironic, eh?) it could mean less ad money. Advertising has had it really good compared to older days of TV and radio with targeted online communities and data about them.
Maybe this just sparks less VC investment towards freemium products?
[+] [-] cJ0th|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] CryoLogic|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] l33tbro|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] panarky|8 years ago|reply
But their valuation depends on extrapolating today's growth and cash flow into the future.
So even a slight slowdown in their growth rate or small reduction in margins can have a magnified effect on the company's valuation.
Since expectations of higher future valuation drives high compensation for strong performers, any hint of this unraveling will result in brain drain.
It's almost certainly already begun.
Yes, my mom will still be on Facebook in 5 years. But I won't be there, my kids won't be there, and my friends won't be there.
Since the network effect works in reverse, the users who remain will spend fewer minutes per day on Facebook and Instagram than they do today.
And ARPU is dismal for the fossils who think Facebook is the internet.
[+] [-] mikeash|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] VeejayRampay|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] benevol|8 years ago|reply
[+] [-] bb88|8 years ago|reply
Think of it this way. How much money will FB have to spend to rebrand itself and fix the privacy issues. $1 Billion, maybe $2 Billion?
You can do a lot with $2B dollars.