[ssalazars]

> "Daniel Imberman, a 26-year-old software engineer, drifts toward this pole, though he rejects the FIRE label (“sounds like classic tech-douche”). His target is $15 million."

How long do you think it'll take him to reach his goal? He talks about starting a start-up, selling or profiting, but all of that take a lot of work. And even then there's no guarantee his plan will work.

Saving 15M will probably take a developer anywhere from 10-20 years? Or am I very wrong?

[stellar678]

It's very far off. You would either need seriously over-performing investments or some kind of exit.

I ran the numbers for a simple scenario, assuming a current $150k income:

- With a 5% yearly raise and a 7% investment return, you end up with ~$3.8M at 20 years.

- With a 5% yearly raise and a 20% investment return, you end up with ~$14.5M at 20 years.

That 5% yearly raise would have you earning almost $400k at the end of 20 years too - probably up for debate how likely that is.

[ryandrake]

What savings rate do you assume there? I agree the savings goal is very difficult even with ridiculously favorable assumptions! I’ve never heard of 5% yearly raises outside of the first 5-10 years of someone’s career. You’re lucky to get raises that approach inflation. And that 7% investment gain is average only if you have a very risky all-equities asset allocation the whole time you are saving. 20%? LOL.

I don’t think most people’s “retire early” savings plans/goals can survive initial contact with reality.

[otoburb]

>>Like many other aspiring early retirees, Daniel also made lucky investments in cryptocurrency. “The crypto lottery forwarded my timetable by five, ten years.”

He also got very lucky.

Assuming no cryptocurrency optionality, even if it took him up to 25 years to diligently save and invest, ceteris paribus he would still be able to retire around age 50. The only catch is that family formation can be quite expensive unless you get extremely lucky and find a life-long partner who shares the same frugal mentality.

Finding said partner is much, much harder than it sounds.

[bradlys]

I get that some developers at big companies make $600k+/yr but saving $15,000,000 over even 25 years requires putting away 15m/25 => $600k/yr. That's net income to be put away too. So, really you're probably making $1m/yr. I get you'll see return on investment over those 25 years but we're talking true 1% income regardless - which most software devs will never get near. (Even most in the bay area)

[dgacmu]

You're way undercounting the effects of growth. It's 342k/year saved at 8% growth: http://www.angio.net/finance/calc.html

(See the one for regular contribution required for target).

8% before inflation is reasonable historically for 25 years.

You still need a 400k+ salary to do it, but that's not out of reach in the Bay area, particularly for a couple.

[jpeg_hero]

Yeah that guy is a nutter. There is absolutely no way to bank $15m after-tax in a continuous risk-risk free manner.

And his plan does contain banking a 46x return on his yet unconceived start-up ($500k -> $23m is 46x, Minus 35% for taxes in CA)

This is a discontinuous event. This is not “fat FIRE.” This is called trying to spike it and get rich, like everybody else in this town.