[xcvbxzas]

I don't think these statements are as absolute as you take them. I'm also not sure where you go if "almost certainly did(n't)" is no longer sufficient. At that point you basically have to give up on saying anything about anything.

Science doesn't (intentionally) forget about unlikely alternatives. That doesn't mean there is any good reason to treat highly unlikely scenarios as the equals of the vastly more likely cases.

And arguing anything about chances based on things that have already happened is kind of bullshit. They already happened, however unlikely. We know unlikely things can and do happen occasionally. That does not mean other unlikely things are more likely to happen.

And if you really insist on doing that, keep in mind the timespans here also differ by orders of magnitude.