This is a good excerpt for those who don't have time to read this:
The Center for Applied Rationality promotes double-cruxing, a specific technique that helps people operationalize arguments. A double-crux is a single subquestion where both sides admit that if they were wrong about the subquestion, they would change their mind. For example, if Alice (gun control opponent) would support gun control if she knew it lowered crime, and Bob (gun control supporter) would oppose gun control if he knew it would make crime worse – then the only thing they have to talk about is crime. They can ignore whether guns are important for resisting tyranny. They can ignore the role of mass shootings. They can ignore whether the NRA spokesman made an offensive comment one time. They just have to focus on crime – and that’s the sort of thing which at least in principle is tractable to studies and statistics and scientific consensus.
There's a nice general lesson from double cruxing that you can apply outside of one on one arguements if you care about holding consistent beliefs.
Always argue for your weakest crux. I.e. out of all the necessary premises of some position you hold, always keep the hardest to defend premise close to the front of your mind.
This is counterintuitive because people reflexively try to bury their weakest assumptions. What's more: we're rewarded for presenting strong arguments. But if there's some fact that, if disproven, would cause you to change your mind and you aren't really confident that that fact is true - you should care the most about finding out if it's false, or at the very least becoming more certain in your belief about it.
I think it's useful to differentiate between "arguments" and "debates". An "argument" is a meeting of the minds, grounded in mutual respect, in which each side has an opposing a priori belief that they might be willing to change. A "debate" is a zero-sum game in which each person arguing is trying to change the mind of some third party^1. People often call interactions "arguments" when, in fact, they are actually "debates".
Doubele-cruxing can be useful in arguments, but the audience of a debate should approach any crux with incredulity. Anyone with half a mind toward "winning" a double-cruxed debate would choose an untenable position as their "crux". A practiced debater will find the scientific concensus and then work backwards to a crux. Not the other way around. Then they get the rhetorical benefits of acting "reasonable" without actually giving up anything useful to their opponent. In fact, if their opponent is clueless enough to accept the crux, they've just won the game. And if their opponent complains, well now the opponent is "meta-debating" which is apparently bad thing (and is a bad thing anyways because it makes you sound like an egghead).
So, double-cruxing is a great strategy for an argument between people who mutually respect one another. But audiences to a debate should be careful about whether they're being hood-winked by a rhetorical trick.
In short, a lot of this philosophizing about how to have a good argument really just boils down to "have the right argument with the right person". Two people who respect each other talking about something that both have fluid opinions on rarely devolves into a useless conversation.
--
^1: A debate in which there's no third party present might be called "a waste of time".
But the arguments on both sides would be somewhat crippled by removing the use of stats relating to gun control vs. crime.
Your quote may as well replace "gun control" with "religion" and "crime" with "morality". The arguments on both sides become superficial as you've removed the specific causes for each side to argue. You may as well continue this trend until both sides are arguing "good equals good" for differing values of "good".
This stuff isn't easily arguable by humans with opinions. Removing the example data that forms the opinions doesn't make the arguments on either side stronger or weaker, it makes the argument as a whole less relevant to society.
This is unfortunate because, as you quote, "that’s the sort of thing which at least in principle is tractable to studies and statistics and scientific consensus"
Breaking complex issues down to be "tractable to studies" is possible, but most techniques are fraught with errors of over-simplification.
4. If you hold the conversation in private, you’re almost guaranteed to avoid everything below the lower dotted line. Everything below that is a show put on for spectators.
This is definitely not true. I think most people have social shaming arguments (another way of putting this is tribalism) so drilled into them that they believe it at a very core level and will socially shame you (in a less aggressive way) when speaking in private because it's core to how they think.
"I hate how you're always agreeing/on the side of X"
I don't usually put myself in a position to have private conversations with that type of person, and I suspect Scott doesn't either, but you're very correct to point this out.
This is unfortunately the case, but an audience still tends to exacerbate the problem. In other words, OP is correct if we change 'almost guaranteed' to something like 'considerably more likely'.
And if you hold the conversation in private, the more powerful status quo will always have more resources to quash the discussion if they don't come off so well. Which is also, I think, a big plus to lots of SSC readers.
Douglas Walton has been my go-to on these topics for years. For those interested in a more professional presentation of some of the concepts used in this blog post, try this:
I think this is a useful article. The bit that struck me as most important was the bit about Clarifying - I think many pointless online discussions, including most straw-men, could be rescued by that practice.
More specifically, if I were dang for a day, I'd edit the third guideline ("Please respond to the strongest plausible interpretation of what someone says, not a weaker one that's easier to criticize. Assume good faith.") to add, "When in doubt, try paraphrasing the other side's argument in a way that they would agree with before responding to it."
It's no surprise that the internet is full of "meta debate" and "social shaming" - arguing about the terms of debate and who can participate, and not over any core issues. For debates to be productive, all sides need to agree on at least some facts, and come from a place of good faith. Most places online, anyone can walk in and add their comment. They don't need to share any assumptions with the rest of the audience, and they probably aren't invested in having a productive debate anyway. It produces drive-by commenters.
Productive debates are more likely to happen in places with 1. Moderation and 2. an invested community. That's what makes HN successful, in my opinion.
But we can't turn every comment section into HN. Moderation is expensive. And some sites aren't niche enough to foster a sense of community.
So we should probably remove most comment sections.
News sites are particularly bad. Anyone can just stop by, leave their shitty opinion, and walk away.
This is why I like code. Sometimes you don't have to argue, you can just make something work. Not arguing is hard. I'm bad at not arguing, but the older I get the more often I repeat, "Can I demonstrate? No? Then don't engage." If something can't be conclusively demonstrated maybe I can spend my time productively in a way that makes me happy and maybe gets a little bit closer to demonstrating something I care about.
Debate and criticism are defence, it seems to me; their value lies in averting heartache and war. For the purpose of changing the world, the ultimate argument is to create something new and substantial and then make progess with it, giving people somewhere to jump to.
I guess I'm breaking the rules of "good" argumentation described in that article/essay now, but I'm yet to see anyone that links to "slatestarcodex" or similar "rationalist"'ish site, link to an article that is not an absolute massive scientificy sounding wall-of-text.
Since this is basically the exact opposite from what I remember reading - correct me if I'm wrong - in "On Writing Well", I've started to assume that their core discussion/argumentation technique is actually a kind of attrition warfare - to tire the opponent out.
Classify SSC as philosophical musings, with a vague basis in science. If philosophical musings aren't your thing, and they are not most people's thing, it isn't going to appeal to you. SSC posts are generally "the sausage being made", not a nicely-digested final product such as you might get in a school course.
I mean this as neither defense of SSC nor an attack on SSC. It is simply an explanation of what it is, and an observation that you may simply not be in the target audience.
Despite the book title, there is no single form of "good writing": different readers prefer different things. For example, some people really like thick fantasy novels in the style of Robert Jordan.
I would be interested to see a survey of the reading speed of people who like/dislike SSC. It could be that the fans tend to skim texts and read more words per minute, so the posts don't feel as long.
Scott likes to give "epistemic" ratings to his essays to solve this very problem. They range from "basically complete speculation" all the way to "pretty darn sure." It would be nice if he were more consistent with them, though.
This SSC article is basically a, "I'm not judging you but you're acting in bad faith if you don't accept my values as fundamental" summary.
And that's a lot of SSC. It's not "based" in science, nor is it based in "good writing." Often times its articles devolve into something that is almost self-fisking and difficult to follow.
I think though that finding ways to succeed at public arguments is an interesting discussion, and it encourages you to define "success" in ways other than "dominate and browbeat people by turning them into ideologically fetishized foils." Much of this discourse is aimed at denigrating this, but that's ultimately a quiet appeal to the status quo and the least rational, most passionate opinions. Often times denormalization of those opinions is it the best way to combat them, if they need combating.
A great example of this is repeating (in a tired voice) "No on cares but you" when someone goes off on a rant about how transexuals are "mentally ill." Repeating that this is a value judgement and not a universal axiom is a very effective tactic, because it refuses to accept the hidden premises that having such a conversation in the first place implies (i.e., that it's open for debate in the first place).
Or maybe to get real precision in very complicated things, you have to prioritize some things over "writing well," which is partially about making things easy for the reader. What if some things are just complicated enough that they can't be elucidated well in a short space? Some stories need a book, not a newspaper article.
While the writing on Slate Star Codex could be more concise, I do enjoy a lot of the ideas presented.
A couple of style changes would have a much larger impact on the reading experience. As is there are about 115 characters per line and a narrow line height. Bumping the paragraph size to 16px and the line height to 1.6 makes the article dramatically less tiresome to read.
If you publish long-form content, typography is incredibly important. For long articles like this 65-80 characters per line is the sweet spot.
I feel like "or similar" is not fair. I don't know how much you've read of SSC vs. pattern matching it to related blogs, but I really enjoy his writing while I can't stomach most wall-o-text posts. He actually has a post on writing advice [0], which I liked, since his style resonates with me, but which I guess would be more like "things to avoid" for you!
And it's easy to see the parallel the author makes. Every minute aspect of modern living has become "religion". And there is a very public jockeying amongst a high priest class of prognosticating pundits all vying for influence and attention.
But in the most fundamental matters of import beginning with the categorical assumption is essential. Namely, that there exists for any given problem, an optimal answer. It is simply a matter of collecting empirical evidence and making the appropriate analysis.
Steven Pinker argues in his most recent book that if there were "no Hitler, there would be no nukes!" It was only the pressing war that goaded formerly peacefully inclined nuclear physicists to construct such technologies. With the resultant problems we now face of non-proliferation, cyber command and control, etc.
And the logical extension would then take the form: well the Five Eyes nations or G-7 that represent our democratic allies need to develop the next generation of weaponry. To maintain the balance of power shifted in our favor. And so the policy of "mututally assured annihilation" continues ad infinitum until someone happens on a doomsday apparatus ;)
But it is far from optimal. An optimal solution would be something akin to peaceful equilibrium throughout the planet. With space based deterrents against alien attack. But barring an actual concrete threat in that regard. We lack the foresight and will to make it happen.
Obviously I believe part of the solution is electing more scientists and rational thinkers in positions of power. Which brings us back to square one. How to effectively communicate and "nudge" an outcome that foments optimal solutions.
> It was only the pressing war that goaded formerly peacefully inclined nuclear physicists to construct such technologies. With the resultant problems we now face of non-proliferation, cyber command and control, etc.
But nuclear arms have essentially put an end to total war between developed nations. We've all agreed not to use them in conventional war, and disallowed chemical weapons as well, as those progressed from Lewisite and Mustard gas to terrifying V- and G- agents. In the absence of these technologies, pressing wars would have continued.
>An optimal solution would be something akin to peaceful equilibrium throughout the planet.
This is based on the notion that war is not necessary to maintain our species in optimal condition, which is an assumption that bears more examination. Why do we have war to begin with? Some species make war, many don't but some do, including us. But why do we do so? Doesn't it serve some beneficial or essential function for us?
“When guns are outlawed, only outlaws will have guns.”
[...]
could be transformed into an argument like “Since it’s
possible to get guns illegally with some effort, and
criminals need guns to commit their crimes and are
comfortable with breaking laws, it might only slightly
decrease the number of guns available to criminals. And
it might greatly decrease the number of guns available to
law-abiding people hoping to defend themselves. So the
cost of people not being able to defend themselves might
be greater than the benefit of fewer criminals being able
to commit crimes.”
I think the one-line quote would persuade people more readily than the 10-line quote.
> I think the one-line quote would persuade people more readily than the 10-line quote.
Sure, and "My opponent once made a tweet that could arguably be interpreted as racist" will persuade even more people.
But this article is not about persuading people. It's about two people with opposite opinions who recognize that they might be wrong, sharing the evidence that supports those opinions in hopes of learning something. Persuading people is what you do when you already know you're right.
You're right, but that reflects more on human psychology than the quality of the argument. I'd argue the problem with discussion of current events on social media is exactly this - quotes and arguments are selected for psychological potency, and not merit.
> I think the one-line quote would persuade people more readily than the 10-line quote.
Anyone who is thinking clearly, regardless of their position, can agree with "when guns are outlawed, only outlaws will have guns," as it is simply a tautology. If you hear someone agreeing or disagreeing with the statement, they are really agreeing or disagreeing with a longer, implied argument like the one provided, or else they're confused.
This is because the one-liner is actually (sorry SSC) a valid logical template, relying on assumptions about rule of law to draw a deductive inference. We can see the template itself:
"When X is illegal to possess under some jurisdiction's law, then the residents of that jurisdiction will be criminalized by their possession of X, and thus the only possessors of X in the jurisdiction will be criminals."
SSC probably doesn't like this one because it's definitional. People like to use "criminal" is a qualitative label for people who they feel have broken the law, but it is in fact definable as a quantitative label for people who have committed acts which are unacceptable as a fact of law.
If an argument loses its persuasive power when its limitations and tacit assumptions are spelled out, then it wasn't that good an argument to start with.
[+] [-] nerdponx|7 years ago|reply
The Center for Applied Rationality promotes double-cruxing, a specific technique that helps people operationalize arguments. A double-crux is a single subquestion where both sides admit that if they were wrong about the subquestion, they would change their mind. For example, if Alice (gun control opponent) would support gun control if she knew it lowered crime, and Bob (gun control supporter) would oppose gun control if he knew it would make crime worse – then the only thing they have to talk about is crime. They can ignore whether guns are important for resisting tyranny. They can ignore the role of mass shootings. They can ignore whether the NRA spokesman made an offensive comment one time. They just have to focus on crime – and that’s the sort of thing which at least in principle is tractable to studies and statistics and scientific consensus.
[+] [-] Gormisdomai|7 years ago|reply
Always argue for your weakest crux. I.e. out of all the necessary premises of some position you hold, always keep the hardest to defend premise close to the front of your mind.
This is counterintuitive because people reflexively try to bury their weakest assumptions. What's more: we're rewarded for presenting strong arguments. But if there's some fact that, if disproven, would cause you to change your mind and you aren't really confident that that fact is true - you should care the most about finding out if it's false, or at the very least becoming more certain in your belief about it.
[+] [-] throwawayjava|7 years ago|reply
Doubele-cruxing can be useful in arguments, but the audience of a debate should approach any crux with incredulity. Anyone with half a mind toward "winning" a double-cruxed debate would choose an untenable position as their "crux". A practiced debater will find the scientific concensus and then work backwards to a crux. Not the other way around. Then they get the rhetorical benefits of acting "reasonable" without actually giving up anything useful to their opponent. In fact, if their opponent is clueless enough to accept the crux, they've just won the game. And if their opponent complains, well now the opponent is "meta-debating" which is apparently bad thing (and is a bad thing anyways because it makes you sound like an egghead).
So, double-cruxing is a great strategy for an argument between people who mutually respect one another. But audiences to a debate should be careful about whether they're being hood-winked by a rhetorical trick.
In short, a lot of this philosophizing about how to have a good argument really just boils down to "have the right argument with the right person". Two people who respect each other talking about something that both have fluid opinions on rarely devolves into a useless conversation.
--
^1: A debate in which there's no third party present might be called "a waste of time".
[+] [-] Intermernet|7 years ago|reply
Your quote may as well replace "gun control" with "religion" and "crime" with "morality". The arguments on both sides become superficial as you've removed the specific causes for each side to argue. You may as well continue this trend until both sides are arguing "good equals good" for differing values of "good".
This stuff isn't easily arguable by humans with opinions. Removing the example data that forms the opinions doesn't make the arguments on either side stronger or weaker, it makes the argument as a whole less relevant to society.
This is unfortunate because, as you quote, "that’s the sort of thing which at least in principle is tractable to studies and statistics and scientific consensus"
Breaking complex issues down to be "tractable to studies" is possible, but most techniques are fraught with errors of over-simplification.
[+] [-] zimablue|7 years ago|reply
This is definitely not true. I think most people have social shaming arguments (another way of putting this is tribalism) so drilled into them that they believe it at a very core level and will socially shame you (in a less aggressive way) when speaking in private because it's core to how they think.
"I hate how you're always agreeing/on the side of X"
[+] [-] Matticus_Rex|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] rwallace|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] KirinDave|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] haZard_OS|7 years ago|reply
http://www.dougwalton.ca/papers.htm
[+] [-] taserian|7 years ago|reply
I will say that this is quite a large collection of papers. Do you have any pointers as to which of these papers I should start with as a foundation?
[+] [-] mundo|7 years ago|reply
More specifically, if I were dang for a day, I'd edit the third guideline ("Please respond to the strongest plausible interpretation of what someone says, not a weaker one that's easier to criticize. Assume good faith.") to add, "When in doubt, try paraphrasing the other side's argument in a way that they would agree with before responding to it."
[+] [-] joew42k|7 years ago|reply
Productive debates are more likely to happen in places with 1. Moderation and 2. an invested community. That's what makes HN successful, in my opinion.
But we can't turn every comment section into HN. Moderation is expensive. And some sites aren't niche enough to foster a sense of community.
So we should probably remove most comment sections.
News sites are particularly bad. Anyone can just stop by, leave their shitty opinion, and walk away.
[+] [-] iandanforth|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] truculation|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] jahaja|7 years ago|reply
Since this is basically the exact opposite from what I remember reading - correct me if I'm wrong - in "On Writing Well", I've started to assume that their core discussion/argumentation technique is actually a kind of attrition warfare - to tire the opponent out.
[+] [-] jerf|7 years ago|reply
I mean this as neither defense of SSC nor an attack on SSC. It is simply an explanation of what it is, and an observation that you may simply not be in the target audience.
[+] [-] youzicha|7 years ago|reply
I would be interested to see a survey of the reading speed of people who like/dislike SSC. It could be that the fans tend to skim texts and read more words per minute, so the posts don't feel as long.
[+] [-] vinceguidry|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] KirinDave|7 years ago|reply
And that's a lot of SSC. It's not "based" in science, nor is it based in "good writing." Often times its articles devolve into something that is almost self-fisking and difficult to follow.
I think though that finding ways to succeed at public arguments is an interesting discussion, and it encourages you to define "success" in ways other than "dominate and browbeat people by turning them into ideologically fetishized foils." Much of this discourse is aimed at denigrating this, but that's ultimately a quiet appeal to the status quo and the least rational, most passionate opinions. Often times denormalization of those opinions is it the best way to combat them, if they need combating.
A great example of this is repeating (in a tired voice) "No on cares but you" when someone goes off on a rant about how transexuals are "mentally ill." Repeating that this is a value judgement and not a universal axiom is a very effective tactic, because it refuses to accept the hidden premises that having such a conversation in the first place implies (i.e., that it's open for debate in the first place).
[+] [-] Matticus_Rex|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] samsolomon|7 years ago|reply
A couple of style changes would have a much larger impact on the reading experience. As is there are about 115 characters per line and a narrow line height. Bumping the paragraph size to 16px and the line height to 1.6 makes the article dramatically less tiresome to read.
If you publish long-form content, typography is incredibly important. For long articles like this 65-80 characters per line is the sweet spot.
[+] [-] losvedir|7 years ago|reply
[0] http://slatestarcodex.com/2016/02/20/writing-advice/
[+] [-] testando12345|7 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] indescions_2018|7 years ago|reply
http://www.gutenberg.org/files/621/621-h/621-h.html
And it's easy to see the parallel the author makes. Every minute aspect of modern living has become "religion". And there is a very public jockeying amongst a high priest class of prognosticating pundits all vying for influence and attention.
But in the most fundamental matters of import beginning with the categorical assumption is essential. Namely, that there exists for any given problem, an optimal answer. It is simply a matter of collecting empirical evidence and making the appropriate analysis.
Steven Pinker argues in his most recent book that if there were "no Hitler, there would be no nukes!" It was only the pressing war that goaded formerly peacefully inclined nuclear physicists to construct such technologies. With the resultant problems we now face of non-proliferation, cyber command and control, etc.
And the logical extension would then take the form: well the Five Eyes nations or G-7 that represent our democratic allies need to develop the next generation of weaponry. To maintain the balance of power shifted in our favor. And so the policy of "mututally assured annihilation" continues ad infinitum until someone happens on a doomsday apparatus ;)
But it is far from optimal. An optimal solution would be something akin to peaceful equilibrium throughout the planet. With space based deterrents against alien attack. But barring an actual concrete threat in that regard. We lack the foresight and will to make it happen.
Obviously I believe part of the solution is electing more scientists and rational thinkers in positions of power. Which brings us back to square one. How to effectively communicate and "nudge" an outcome that foments optimal solutions.
[+] [-] corey_moncure|7 years ago|reply
But nuclear arms have essentially put an end to total war between developed nations. We've all agreed not to use them in conventional war, and disallowed chemical weapons as well, as those progressed from Lewisite and Mustard gas to terrifying V- and G- agents. In the absence of these technologies, pressing wars would have continued.
>An optimal solution would be something akin to peaceful equilibrium throughout the planet.
This is based on the notion that war is not necessary to maintain our species in optimal condition, which is an assumption that bears more examination. Why do we have war to begin with? Some species make war, many don't but some do, including us. But why do we do so? Doesn't it serve some beneficial or essential function for us?
[+] [-] michaelt|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] mundo|7 years ago|reply
Sure, and "My opponent once made a tweet that could arguably be interpreted as racist" will persuade even more people.
But this article is not about persuading people. It's about two people with opposite opinions who recognize that they might be wrong, sharing the evidence that supports those opinions in hopes of learning something. Persuading people is what you do when you already know you're right.
[+] [-] samthecoy|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] justin66|7 years ago|reply
Anyone who is thinking clearly, regardless of their position, can agree with "when guns are outlawed, only outlaws will have guns," as it is simply a tautology. If you hear someone agreeing or disagreeing with the statement, they are really agreeing or disagreeing with a longer, implied argument like the one provided, or else they're confused.
[+] [-] DonbunEf7|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] mannykannot|7 years ago|reply
If an argument loses its persuasive power when its limitations and tacit assumptions are spelled out, then it wasn't that good an argument to start with.