So this has happened before. If anyone here has read “The Hot Zone”, which is one of the great ‘techno-thrillers” of the 90’s (but still nonfiction), the virus spreads to Kinshasa. It’s the capital of Zaire and a major city. But then...it disappears.
Ebola is a weird virus. Extraordinarily fatal, about 90% during the 1995 outbreak (smallpox is around 20% for comparison), although they have better treatments now for Ebola that bring it closer to 50%.
Either way, lots of health workers have been documented working in a hut with an infected person and never getting infected, yet others have just passed an infected person on the subway and died.
The real concern here is what this means for the future of warfare.
A lot of people have noted that chemical weapons, and perhaps biological weapons, are perfect for distribution by drone due to their light-weightedness. Biological weapons, much like computer viruses, also can be hard to attribute, making them attractive to use.
The Japanese cult that put Sarin in the Tokyo subway in 1996 was also working on biological weapons. They never got far enough, but it demonstrated even non-state actors can pull off credible bio-weapons.
> others have just passed an infected person on the subway and died.
Who? That's a false, alarmist rumor and the parent reads like a "technothriller", which is probably the wrong way to talk about real diseases that might alarm people. Remember during the Ebola epidemic in West Africa, some people coming to the U.S., including a nurse who was effectively imprisoned, were subject of a public panic that had nothing to do with reality. There was no risk. Ebola, like any disease, is contagious only in certain ways. The U.S. CDC says:
The virus spreads through direct contact (such as through broken skin or mucous membranes in the eyes, nose, or mouth) with:
* Blood or body fluids (urine, saliva, sweat, feces, vomit, breast milk, and semen) of a person who is sick with or has died from EVD
* Objects (such as needles and syringes) contaminated with body fluids from a person sick with EVD or the body of a person who died from EVD
* Infected fruit bats or nonhuman primates (such as apes and monkeys)
* Semen from a man who recovered from EVD (through oral, vaginal, or anal sex)
The Ebola virus CANNOT spread to others when a person shows no signs or symptoms of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD). ... There is also no evidence that mosquitoes or other insects can transmit Ebola virus.
Please don't spread these rumors. EDIT: It also distracts people from the real risks.
> The real concern here is what this means for the future of warfare.
I don't think Ebola is likely to play a role in the future of warfare. Based conversations with Sergei Popov [0], in his experience making biological weapons, viruses generally make for poor weapons because they're difficult to deploy / release. Their work led to them to favor B. anthracis and other sporulating bacteria. You'd probably have to invent a new kind of platform for deployment if you want viral weapons to be targeted. I can see how viruses could be used in terrorism or something comparable to arson, but their use by a state seems unlikely.
The real concern here is the people dying right now. The "future of warfare" is no warfare - it's exactly this kind of thinking that drives "well we should research it because someone else most definitely is" type of scenario's, which is what got us into the nuclear mess.
The real trick is to weaponize them in a way that they spread optimally and then disperse them in a way that avoids detection as long as possible.
North Korea has had bio-weapon development program for a long time and has conducted human experiments with prisoners. They also might do larger scale testing in remote islands. No need to Biosafety level 4 laboratory if the researches are not allowed leave the lab and go home every night. If things go south, you torch the island including the people and start over after few years.
It's almost impossible to know how good they are in bio-weapons until they use them.
> The Japanese cult that put Sarin in the Tokyo subway in 1996 was also working on biological weapons, they never got far enough, but it demonstrated even non-state actors can pull of credible bio-weapons.
Biology implements its own blockchain, kind of, so it's pretty easy to track down a common ancestor with enough samples. The oldest one gives you the release location and potentially some information about where it was sourced/created if you have enough information from before the event-- For example, tracking anthrax down to a sample collected from a specific farm during a cattle outbreak and then looking at people who were in the area. In contrast, software viruses don't accumulate changes unless they're under active development.
Chemical and nuclear stuff can possibly be attributed by looking at isotopic composition or impurities, to determine manufacturing process. But doesn't really tell you anything unique. Exceptions are e.g. polonium which where only a few state agencies are known to be able to make it.
The classic, scary chemical weapons (e.g. cholinesterase inhibitors, Sarin) themselves are kitchen chemistry. Ricin, even nastier to die from, is barn chemistry in that it's essentially castor bean tea. However, I suspect that people who manufacture on the cheap usually kill themselves and anyone with enough knowledge and resources to not kill themselves often don't want to make chemical weapons.
A few points/questions about U.S. policy and response:
* IIRC, the current administration cut NIH or CDC funding for preventing and/or dealing with foreign disease outbreaks. Under the prior administration, IIRC the GOP in Congress told the NIH/CDC to re-purpose those funds toward other uses. Does anyone know the current status?
* Regarding the Ebola outbreak in West Africa recently, I later read that the only organization in the world with the logistical resources to respond quickly at the necessary scale was the U.S. military, and Obama eventually deployed them.
* The article doesn't mention the U.S. at all. That seems like a major omissions; not even a no comment. Is the U.S. just standing back while these people die and an epidemic spreads, potentially to other places too?
* What is the current administration's stance on funding UN/WHO health operations?
> Both Mbandaka and Bikoro now have mobile labs, where researchers can test blood samples locally—a huge difference compared to most previous outbreaks. Provided by USAID, the labs contain generators, freezers, and equipment for doing diagnostic tests. The Mbandaka lab is expected to be operational tomorrow afternoon, once the WHO delivers a generator.
The U.S. military was deployed, but the West African outbreak was much larger in scope. The people first on the ground with expertise are probably MSF.
Relevant Vice youtube video of the 2015 Ebola outbreak in Liberia: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ANUI4uT3xJI for those who want more context on why its so hard to stop it in underdeveloped and insufficiently prepared African cities (not the developed ones, those tend to be able to contain epidemics)
One aspect of Ebola which makes it so terrifying and also less likely to spread widely is its rapid progression and mortality rate. The detailed accounts of a person succumbing to fatal Ebola infection are horrific. But the virus' effectiveness at rapidly multiplying results in its host dying so quickly that transmission is limited. It would be interesting to see if the reduction in mortality rates (from 90% to 50% according to another poster) correlates with a greater length/breadth of the outbreak.
On another note, if human strains of Ebola ever mutate for airborne transmission, we're all screwed.
I see hysteria about Ebola. As if it has the potential to wipe out millions.
If Ebola was prone to causing large-scale epidemics, Ebola would have caused large-scale epidemics.
Want to worry? Worry about flu. Worry about smallpox. Those viruses have killed millions and, most likely, will continue to do so now and again in the centuries to come.
But Ebola? Not a chance. How do I know? Because, there is every reason to believe the virus has been around forever, and it's never caused the type of pandemic described by doomsayers.
> The vaccine will be kept in the capital until shortly before use because of the lack of facilities in the provinces for storing it at the required temperature, between minus 60 degrees and minus 80 degrees Celsius, or between minus 76 degrees and minus 112 degrees Fahrenheit.
Are there any other vaccines that have to be kept at such low temperatures?
Many have fairly low temperature storage requirements, a -80C is a fairly standard freezer for dealing with long term storage of anything biological.
But the real problem isn’t -60 or -80. It’s -[Anything]. If there isn't a reliable source of electricity refrigeration (to the extent required by many drugs and vaccines) is the largest problem faced when you’re trying to get vaccinated new and drugs to remote locations.
Most have to be refrigerated. Vaccines tend to be proteins and sugars which will denature (i.e. unfold or fall apart) if not stored properly.
Though -80 is a little extreme for a vaccine. That's the temperature most commonly used for long-term lab storage of samples. It's not a common storage capacity in first-world countries, let alone the third world.
-80°C is a typical storage temperature for proteins and other biological samples in the lab. This might indicate the experimental nature of the vaccine, and that they didn't have the chance to optimize or test that aspect yet.
And you realize that the US is even less prepared for any major epidemics that might occur in the world and here in the US due to the Trump administration's relentless dismantling and defunding of both research and global disease research.
It's unfortunate you are being downvoted, but using emotional language like "idiotic" is not helpful. You are, however, factually correct. It is a plain fact that yes, traditional funeral practices in sierra leone and liberia did contribute greatly to the outbreak. One of the things that stopped the outbreak in sierra leone, more than anything, was the massive public education campaign embarked upon by the response agencies, which after several months finally got cooperation from the civilian population to:
a) if you see a sick person, don't touch them, call the special response phone number and a PPE-equipped response team will be dispatched
b) if a person dies, do not touch the corpse, do not wash the corpse, do not handle the corpse
c) know how to identify the early signs of sickness and where the ETUs were (ebola treatment units).
It is actually kind of difficult to contract ebola because you need skin-to-skin contact with sweat, blood or vomit from a very sick person with a high viral load. It's not highly aerosolized and doesn't last very long in the air from coughing or sneezing.
When you do the research you'll find that it spreads to fast. Look out for those that control the speed of the virus. Source: my research in extending human lifespan.
I couldn't tell if you were serious or not so I went to your profile page and I saw "Smart Contracts for On-Demand Datasets in Machine Learning & Artificial Intelligence". I still can't tell if it's an elaborate joke or not.
[+] [-] cmrivers|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Fomite|7 years ago|reply
/cmrivers former lab mate
[+] [-] Bucephalus355|7 years ago|reply
Ebola is a weird virus. Extraordinarily fatal, about 90% during the 1995 outbreak (smallpox is around 20% for comparison), although they have better treatments now for Ebola that bring it closer to 50%.
Either way, lots of health workers have been documented working in a hut with an infected person and never getting infected, yet others have just passed an infected person on the subway and died.
The real concern here is what this means for the future of warfare.
A lot of people have noted that chemical weapons, and perhaps biological weapons, are perfect for distribution by drone due to their light-weightedness. Biological weapons, much like computer viruses, also can be hard to attribute, making them attractive to use.
The Japanese cult that put Sarin in the Tokyo subway in 1996 was also working on biological weapons. They never got far enough, but it demonstrated even non-state actors can pull off credible bio-weapons.
[+] [-] forapurpose|7 years ago|reply
Who? That's a false, alarmist rumor and the parent reads like a "technothriller", which is probably the wrong way to talk about real diseases that might alarm people. Remember during the Ebola epidemic in West Africa, some people coming to the U.S., including a nurse who was effectively imprisoned, were subject of a public panic that had nothing to do with reality. There was no risk. Ebola, like any disease, is contagious only in certain ways. The U.S. CDC says:
https://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/transmission/index.html
The virus spreads through direct contact (such as through broken skin or mucous membranes in the eyes, nose, or mouth) with:
* Blood or body fluids (urine, saliva, sweat, feces, vomit, breast milk, and semen) of a person who is sick with or has died from EVD
* Objects (such as needles and syringes) contaminated with body fluids from a person sick with EVD or the body of a person who died from EVD
* Infected fruit bats or nonhuman primates (such as apes and monkeys)
* Semen from a man who recovered from EVD (through oral, vaginal, or anal sex)
The Ebola virus CANNOT spread to others when a person shows no signs or symptoms of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD). ... There is also no evidence that mosquitoes or other insects can transmit Ebola virus.
Please don't spread these rumors. EDIT: It also distracts people from the real risks.
[+] [-] sndean|7 years ago|reply
I don't think Ebola is likely to play a role in the future of warfare. Based conversations with Sergei Popov [0], in his experience making biological weapons, viruses generally make for poor weapons because they're difficult to deploy / release. Their work led to them to favor B. anthracis and other sporulating bacteria. You'd probably have to invent a new kind of platform for deployment if you want viral weapons to be targeted. I can see how viruses could be used in terrorism or something comparable to arson, but their use by a state seems unlikely.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergei_Popov_(bioweaponeer)
[+] [-] krageon|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Nokinside|7 years ago|reply
North Korea has had bio-weapon development program for a long time and has conducted human experiments with prisoners. They also might do larger scale testing in remote islands. No need to Biosafety level 4 laboratory if the researches are not allowed leave the lab and go home every night. If things go south, you torch the island including the people and start over after few years.
It's almost impossible to know how good they are in bio-weapons until they use them.
[+] [-] DanBC|7 years ago|reply
They got pretty far.
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/10/1/03-0238_article
[+] [-] xkcd-sucks|7 years ago|reply
Chemical and nuclear stuff can possibly be attributed by looking at isotopic composition or impurities, to determine manufacturing process. But doesn't really tell you anything unique. Exceptions are e.g. polonium which where only a few state agencies are known to be able to make it.
The classic, scary chemical weapons (e.g. cholinesterase inhibitors, Sarin) themselves are kitchen chemistry. Ricin, even nastier to die from, is barn chemistry in that it's essentially castor bean tea. However, I suspect that people who manufacture on the cheap usually kill themselves and anyone with enough knowledge and resources to not kill themselves often don't want to make chemical weapons.
[+] [-] forapurpose|7 years ago|reply
* IIRC, the current administration cut NIH or CDC funding for preventing and/or dealing with foreign disease outbreaks. Under the prior administration, IIRC the GOP in Congress told the NIH/CDC to re-purpose those funds toward other uses. Does anyone know the current status?
* Regarding the Ebola outbreak in West Africa recently, I later read that the only organization in the world with the logistical resources to respond quickly at the necessary scale was the U.S. military, and Obama eventually deployed them.
* The article doesn't mention the U.S. at all. That seems like a major omissions; not even a no comment. Is the U.S. just standing back while these people die and an epidemic spreads, potentially to other places too?
* What is the current administration's stance on funding UN/WHO health operations?
[+] [-] ForHackernews|7 years ago|reply
> Both Mbandaka and Bikoro now have mobile labs, where researchers can test blood samples locally—a huge difference compared to most previous outbreaks. Provided by USAID, the labs contain generators, freezers, and equipment for doing diagnostic tests. The Mbandaka lab is expected to be operational tomorrow afternoon, once the WHO delivers a generator.
[+] [-] maxerickson|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Fomite|7 years ago|reply
As for the CDC, it looks like they're working with the DRC Ministry of Health: https://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/outbreaks/drc/2018-may.html
[+] [-] Fomite|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] olliej|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Andre_Wanglin|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] forkLding|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] joejerryronnie|7 years ago|reply
On another note, if human strains of Ebola ever mutate for airborne transmission, we're all screwed.
[+] [-] ocschwar|7 years ago|reply
We're just collateral damage.
So mutating for airborne transmission among humans is just not on the evolutionary agenda here.
[+] [-] lurquer|7 years ago|reply
If Ebola was prone to causing large-scale epidemics, Ebola would have caused large-scale epidemics.
Want to worry? Worry about flu. Worry about smallpox. Those viruses have killed millions and, most likely, will continue to do so now and again in the centuries to come.
But Ebola? Not a chance. How do I know? Because, there is every reason to believe the virus has been around forever, and it's never caused the type of pandemic described by doomsayers.
[+] [-] elihu|7 years ago|reply
> The vaccine will be kept in the capital until shortly before use because of the lack of facilities in the provinces for storing it at the required temperature, between minus 60 degrees and minus 80 degrees Celsius, or between minus 76 degrees and minus 112 degrees Fahrenheit.
Are there any other vaccines that have to be kept at such low temperatures?
[+] [-] olliej|7 years ago|reply
But the real problem isn’t -60 or -80. It’s -[Anything]. If there isn't a reliable source of electricity refrigeration (to the extent required by many drugs and vaccines) is the largest problem faced when you’re trying to get vaccinated new and drugs to remote locations.
[+] [-] timr|7 years ago|reply
Though -80 is a little extreme for a vaccine. That's the temperature most commonly used for long-term lab storage of samples. It's not a common storage capacity in first-world countries, let alone the third world.
[+] [-] dredmorbius|7 years ago|reply
Though precise cryogenic refrigeration is a tech domain of its own.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dry_ice
[+] [-] fabian2k|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] SpikeDad|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] sandworm101|7 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] sctb|7 years ago|reply
https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
[+] [-] walrus01|7 years ago|reply
a) if you see a sick person, don't touch them, call the special response phone number and a PPE-equipped response team will be dispatched
b) if a person dies, do not touch the corpse, do not wash the corpse, do not handle the corpse
c) know how to identify the early signs of sickness and where the ETUs were (ebola treatment units).
It is actually kind of difficult to contract ebola because you need skin-to-skin contact with sweat, blood or vomit from a very sick person with a high viral load. It's not highly aerosolized and doesn't last very long in the air from coughing or sneezing.
[+] [-] KasianFranks|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] simias|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] tzahola|7 years ago|reply