[struppi]

Several European leaders have said publically (though in nicer words) that they don't trust America under this administration anymore.

e.g. Sebastian Kurz, a few days ago (1): "The American President is unconventional and American politics has become unpredictable. [...] This is a challenging geopolitical situation."

(1) German Interview - https://derstandard.at/2000081642343/Kanzler-Kurz-Wer-auf-Or...

[adventured]

Why would that trust be necessary? It very clearly isn't. Which is not the same as arguing that trust can't be valuable or critical in international relationships depending on the context.

China has gone from a $1 trillion to a $13 trillion economy in 20 years, with vast barriers to trade (into their country) and extreme domestic protectionist policies (eg barring majority domestic business ownership, and most foreign acquisitions).

China is the greatest one-way mercantilist economic result in recorded history. There's very little trust in any relationship with China, they do literally whatever they decide fits their nationalist aims, whether that's annexing territory, stealing corporations (Ant Financial), forcing technology transfers, blockading foreign ownership, whatever it takes to buy time until China is impossible to resist. China is already buying up Eastern Europe, and buying votes within the EU (eg bribing Greece for favorable voting). Is that a premise of trust? Of course not, they're using their increasing might strategically wherever they can, and it's going to get a lot worse.

The fact is, all nations should pursue their self interest. When the US decides to act as everyone else does and pursue its economic self interest, it's denounced. And there's China parroting that they're in favor of free trade, while being aggressively against free trade in practice, and hardly being called out for the hypocrisy internationally.

The reason the US is denounced, is because the export gravy train is coming to an end, the easy exports into the US that many other large economies have enjoyed are going to get more expensive going forward. If that wasn't the case, all of these other nations wouldn't be upset about the US change in behavior: they all know the US is an immense global consumption engine that powers their domestic production.

Responding to psergeant's comment below:

> I wonder if you could help me understand Trump trying to rescue ZTE in terms of what you’ve just said?

The US got China to immediately sign off on the Qualcomm acquisition of NXP in exchange for the ZTE deal. That's an extremely valuable acquisition for the US tech industry.

Simultaneously the US has received $2.2 billion in fines from ZTE over time for their violations of US sanctions. Further on top of that, the US is getting even more compliance pledges from ZTE.

It's a substantial self interest win for the US. The US gets to eat one of Europe's valuable tech companies (of which they have relatively few), which then reduces Europe as a tech competitor over time. I'd call the ZTE deal a win, win, win, win arrangement.

[pjc50]

> The fact is, all nations should pursue their self interest.

This leads to hugely destructive wars. The history of the post-war order has been trying to build common interest through multilateral institutions.

[s2g]

> Why would that trust be necessary? It very clearly isn't.

Okay, why should North Korea cooperate with Trump?

Why should Iran?

He says one thing then turns around and does another. How do you come to an agreement with that sort of person on anything?

It's not about having good or bad policies. It's about being able to do any sort of good faith negotiation.

[psergeant]

I wonder if you could help me understand Trump trying to rescue ZTE in terms of what you’ve just said?