[pacificpendant]

When people say things like "serious possibility" they are not merely intending to alter the perception of the likelihood but also attempting to impress upon the listener the gravity of the event.

In cold war era America would people have felt any different knowing that a Russian invasion was only 20% likely rather than 30%? For something so /serious/ any non-zero probability is something that should be prepared for.

[ScottBurson]

Yes, I had the same thought. A "serious possibility" of global thermonuclear war is 1% (maybe smaller). A "serious possibility" of a hangnail is 80%.