Said another way, Tesla still has existing orders that will keep it busy for a couple years, by which time the Model 3 line will be profitable. Which is to say, Tesla will have succeeded in creating a mass market electric vehicle and turning a profit while doing so, thus changing the landscape to one in which electric vehicles are in some instances preferred to internal combustion vehicles, and so competitors follow suit. Thus accomplishing Tesla’s stated goal of: “to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport by bringing compelling mass market electric cars to market as soon as possible”.
Which is jaw dropping.
But everyone is still jumping on the schadenfreuden wagon, why idk.
In other news. While you were sleeping SpaceX has a successful launch of one of their block 5 rockets. Oh and landed stage one on a moving target in the ocean. While in parallel developing a rocket to take people to mars.
This is insane. And we should all enjoy it while it lasts. Because it’s not a given that these type of accomplishments happen any given day, year, or decade.
The problem is, you do not know how many of the existing deposits are for the base model that has been postponed indefinitely. No one (except Tesla) knows how much of the Model 3 demand is for a product that Tesla can sell without bankrupting themselves. I suspect that many of the deposit holders are waiting for the lower priced versions- it's what they were promised repeatedly, and they were supposed to get base models starting in Q4 2017. Note also that many depositors were expecting to get a $7500 tax credit with their $35K purchase, so many folks were actually expecting a $27.5K car. Tesla might not produce the base version before the tax credit phases out.
So how much of the demand is for a real product? Tesla could reveal this information, but Elon Musk famously called inquiries about these figures "boring, boneheaded" questions. As far as profitability, the jury is very much out on that one.
Google and Facebook are boring monopolists. It makes sense that we enjoy their failures.
But Tesla is a really amazing company. The media coverage makes more sense when you realize that most journalists are deeply unhappy people who are, internally, banging their heads against the wall as a result of never having learned any practical skills. They viscerally hate the idea of progress, because by definition they will not be part of progress. They much prefer that the world be stuck.
Luxury for me means a touchscreen that works, a media/navigation system that doesn't make me want to gouge my eyes out, a car that adapts to my preferences at every step of the way, evolves as technology evolves around it and an experience that was deliberately crafted from start to finish.
Luxury for me does not mean fancy stitching, special leather, a mechanical clock on the dashboard for no reason, software that doesn't get updated, exquisite wood grain in random places, lots of knobs, shiny trims, "dealership experience", or 4 years of free oil changes.
I think you'll see the definition of luxury change as our concept of mobility changes. Traditional markers of luxury won't matter anymore and that will leave incumbents who have traditional luxury as their core competence in a weird place.
The inside of a Model 3 is not anywhere near as nice as the inside of any other expensive car. For $40k at an Acura dealer you will get the top-of-the-line interior with fancy stitching on the seats, an actual instrument package, Android Auto and CarPlay, etc. And that's at a price point where Tesla cars are currently not even available.
I cancelled, but only because I want an extended battery version with autopilot. I'm sure others cancelled their orders for the base version to speed up delivery.
lol the extended battery is the only version they're producing right now. Just got mine two months ago. you dun goofed, it's amazing. But I heard the waiting list for new orders is only 2 - 5 months.
I've been considering a Tesla, but I can't pull the trigger. The 3 looks boring S knockoff, and have been plagued with quality issues. Supposedly the issues are more under control now, but the early 3s in the parking lot at work have crooked body panels. It turned me off.
I do like that Tesla made an electric car that doesn't look stupid and doesn't suck. For far too long all that existedd were citicars[0] and NEVs[1]. Also, the diamond lane sticker is very seductive. The thing that I can't stand is the interior. It's so empty. The infotainment sucks just as hard as legacy manufacturers (knockoff Pandora, shitty maps, stupid apps like Paint), doesn't have any gadgets (e.g. blindspot detection), and then the standout features features are gimmicks. An autodrive that falls in the uncanny valley, a self park that required to me to hug bumpers on a crowded parking lot, and summon, which is essentially a three four line macro (although, that is something).
Ultimately, the car is disappointing. I guess I'll just wait and get a Porsche Taycan[2], which is ironic because it wouldn't exist without Tesla.
Would you honestly believe a Tesla spokesperson? If these happened, seems like it would show up in a quarterly earnings call. Those things have to be somewhat trustworthy. Now if they don't deny the claims, then I'd worry a bit, no matter what the spin is.
according to Needham & Co. analyst Rajvindra Gill. Tesla disputes that"
I'm trying to find some substantiation for the claim but I'm not finding anything. The closest I see is from BI that there was a "note to clients." The claim is falsifiable so ostensibly this analyst has information other people don't have somehow.
I'd sure like these analysts to show their work, when they do these "projections." The news media and traders seem to respond to them, so there must be something to it, but I'm incredulous generally.
Anyone have any insight on whether these analysts can actually substantiate their projections?
Tesla could easily refute the numbers by revealing actual cancellation numbers. The fact that they haven't, legally speaking (referring to SEC disclosure requirements), means the numbers are on point (but might have different significant if explained in a different context).
With all the hype around the original preorder, I suspect a lot of people who preordered were not serious anyway, or fell victim to wishful thinking about their ability to afford the car.
So in any case, even without the production delays, a higher than normal rate of cancellations would not be surprising.
Many mainstream car companies, particularly GM with its all-electric Chevy Bolt have cars with roughly comparable specs to the Model 3 and you get get one today. The allure of getting something now instead of waiting surely contributes to some of these cancellations.
Yep. You can walk into any Chevy dealer nationwide right now and walk out in an hour with a Bolt for under $35k. There are 114 of them sitting in inventory within 25 miles of my house, according to Chevy's web site.
This guy Gill says Tesla is going to go bankrupt because no one wants to buy its cars, and he says it is going to go bankrupt because it won't be able to produce cars fast enough to meet demand.
I wonder how much of his total fortune he has bet on shorting Tesla stock. It sounds like he is getting pretty desperate.
I was in the same boat. I’m one of the 24% — not that I necessarily believe that number, but it seems reasonable.
I ended up getting the reservation email the same day I bought a different car. I’m sure the 3 drives great, but the idea of another 4-5 month wait (which would have probably have been 6-8 months and pushed out past the tax break) wasn’t appealing. I’ll definitely look at it in the future, but the combination of not being able to even sit in one (no demo available at my local Tesla), let alone test drive one, with the wait just wasn’t worth the risk.
But for me the final thing that made me cancel my day one reservation was all of the production hell talk. I don’t want a car produced in an assembly line that has problems. The multiple line setups (the tent???), the varied production speeds, removing tests and welds that at one point seemed essential... That’s not a good way to ensure consistency. Hell, how much did they have to push (and how much got missed) to make their vaunted 5k/week goal? Maybe in 2-3 years they will have things streamlined enough to get past these issues. But for now, I didn’t to be a guinea pig.
Besides that I wonder how accurate the claim of the cancelled orders is, Tesla at the beginning of the month clearly stated that they had about 420k reservations. Whatever the number of cancelled reservations are, it seems that the number of open reservations is quite stable.
It is not a surprise that there are quite a few cancellations. People might need a car more urgently, or just reconsidered. On the other side, of course people haven't stopped putting down reservations. And so far, Tesla has not marketed the car.
This is just about to change, Tesla has prepared 100 Model 3 Performance to be set up at the Tesla stores for offering test drives for the first time, since the Model 3 came to market. That is certainly going to create more orders, as most people wouldn't place an order without a proper test drive.
The Model 3 is looking a bit over priced now, with cars like the Kona and coming Lead 64 offering similar features, performance and better range for less money.
I have been driving a Model 3 since for 3 months now and it's the most amazing car I have ever had. I switched from a BMW 3 series, which is a no contest comparison. The autopilot is the killer app for driving long distances on the freeway especially in traffic. I let a friend drive for a while and then, after driving home in his own car, said 'I feel like I just saw a washing machine and now I have to wash my clothes by hand.'
[+] [-] patagonia|7 years ago|reply
Which is jaw dropping.
But everyone is still jumping on the schadenfreuden wagon, why idk.
In other news. While you were sleeping SpaceX has a successful launch of one of their block 5 rockets. Oh and landed stage one on a moving target in the ocean. While in parallel developing a rocket to take people to mars.
This is insane. And we should all enjoy it while it lasts. Because it’s not a given that these type of accomplishments happen any given day, year, or decade.
[+] [-] rjdagost|7 years ago|reply
So how much of the demand is for a real product? Tesla could reveal this information, but Elon Musk famously called inquiries about these figures "boring, boneheaded" questions. As far as profitability, the jury is very much out on that one.
[+] [-] bhouston|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] microdrum|7 years ago|reply
Google and Facebook are boring monopolists. It makes sense that we enjoy their failures.
But Tesla is a really amazing company. The media coverage makes more sense when you realize that most journalists are deeply unhappy people who are, internally, banging their heads against the wall as a result of never having learned any practical skills. They viscerally hate the idea of progress, because by definition they will not be part of progress. They much prefer that the world be stuck.
[+] [-] bilal4hmed|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] askafriend|7 years ago|reply
Luxury for me does not mean fancy stitching, special leather, a mechanical clock on the dashboard for no reason, software that doesn't get updated, exquisite wood grain in random places, lots of knobs, shiny trims, "dealership experience", or 4 years of free oil changes.
I think you'll see the definition of luxury change as our concept of mobility changes. Traditional markers of luxury won't matter anymore and that will leave incumbents who have traditional luxury as their core competence in a weird place.
[+] [-] ebikelaw|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] sabareesh|7 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] guard0g|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] dayaz36|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] omarforgotpwd|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] unknown|7 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] jonathankoren|7 years ago|reply
I do like that Tesla made an electric car that doesn't look stupid and doesn't suck. For far too long all that existedd were citicars[0] and NEVs[1]. Also, the diamond lane sticker is very seductive. The thing that I can't stand is the interior. It's so empty. The infotainment sucks just as hard as legacy manufacturers (knockoff Pandora, shitty maps, stupid apps like Paint), doesn't have any gadgets (e.g. blindspot detection), and then the standout features features are gimmicks. An autodrive that falls in the uncanny valley, a self park that required to me to hug bumpers on a crowded parking lot, and summon, which is essentially a three four line macro (although, that is something).
Ultimately, the car is disappointing. I guess I'll just wait and get a Porsche Taycan[2], which is ironic because it wouldn't exist without Tesla.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citicar
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neighborhood_Electric_Vehicle
[2] https://www.roadandtrack.com/new-cars/future-cars/a12778510/...
[+] [-] tpae|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] jonathankoren|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] AndrewKemendo|7 years ago|reply
I'm trying to find some substantiation for the claim but I'm not finding anything. The closest I see is from BI that there was a "note to clients." The claim is falsifiable so ostensibly this analyst has information other people don't have somehow.
I'd sure like these analysts to show their work, when they do these "projections." The news media and traders seem to respond to them, so there must be something to it, but I'm incredulous generally.
Anyone have any insight on whether these analysts can actually substantiate their projections?
[1] http://uk.businessinsider.com/10-things-european-markets-jul...
[+] [-] gamblor956|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] twblalock|7 years ago|reply
So in any case, even without the production delays, a higher than normal rate of cancellations would not be surprising.
[+] [-] rustcharm|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] ebikelaw|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] woodandsteel|7 years ago|reply
I wonder how much of his total fortune he has bet on shorting Tesla stock. It sounds like he is getting pretty desperate.
[+] [-] usermac|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] ryanhuff|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] mbreese|7 years ago|reply
I ended up getting the reservation email the same day I bought a different car. I’m sure the 3 drives great, but the idea of another 4-5 month wait (which would have probably have been 6-8 months and pushed out past the tax break) wasn’t appealing. I’ll definitely look at it in the future, but the combination of not being able to even sit in one (no demo available at my local Tesla), let alone test drive one, with the wait just wasn’t worth the risk.
But for me the final thing that made me cancel my day one reservation was all of the production hell talk. I don’t want a car produced in an assembly line that has problems. The multiple line setups (the tent???), the varied production speeds, removing tests and welds that at one point seemed essential... That’s not a good way to ensure consistency. Hell, how much did they have to push (and how much got missed) to make their vaunted 5k/week goal? Maybe in 2-3 years they will have things streamlined enough to get past these issues. But for now, I didn’t to be a guinea pig.
[+] [-] ricardobeat|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] sabareesh|7 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] _ph_|7 years ago|reply
It is not a surprise that there are quite a few cancellations. People might need a car more urgently, or just reconsidered. On the other side, of course people haven't stopped putting down reservations. And so far, Tesla has not marketed the car.
This is just about to change, Tesla has prepared 100 Model 3 Performance to be set up at the Tesla stores for offering test drives for the first time, since the Model 3 came to market. That is certainly going to create more orders, as most people wouldn't place an order without a proper test drive.
[+] [-] solarkraft|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] kuro68k|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] ricardobeat|7 years ago|reply
What is a Lead 64?
[+] [-] mwilliaams|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] martythemaniak|7 years ago|reply
2. They have inferior performance.
3. They match the range of the Short Range Model 3.
[+] [-] samnwa|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] masonic|7 years ago|reply