In early August, John Gruber wrote that:
“The wheels are turning on N92, the CDMA variant of the iPhone 4... It’s right about where you’d think it would be if it were scheduled to go on sale in January. The CDMA iPhone is no longer a cold storage, keep-it-alive-just-in-case-we-need-it project.” [1]
He noted that the CDMA iPhone could be headed for China Telecom first - the competitor to China Unicom, who just launched a GSM iPhone 4 in that country.
He cites anonymous tipsters, as well as:
- Bloomberg says Verizon iPhone coming in January [2]
- CEA announces the Verizon CEO as the keynote speaker for CES in January [3]
- Steve Cheney claims that Apple has placed orders for “millions of units of Qualcomm CDMA chipsets” for December [4]
- Digitimes reports that Pegatron Technology will begin mass production in December of CDMA iPhones for Verizon and China Telecom [5]
Verizon and Apple blew it on this one IMO. While the iPhone has been wildly successful by pretty much any metric, there is a not-small market segment that hasn't picked up an iPhone solely because it is encumbered with AT&T. (I am one member of that group.)
AT&T gave up its exclusivity deal with Apple for the iPhone back in the spring of this year. Verizon and other insiders had to have known well in advance that they were going to. They should have been ready for a release in July, at the latest.
Instead, Android has made great strides. I'm not a gadget guy when it comes to my phone; I just want it to work and be easy to use and not frustrate me. So, I've played with the various releases of Android and have continued to hold out for an iPhone ... until 2.2. 2.2 is good enough for me, and best of all, Android appears to be gaining ground on the iPhone, and it isn't being crushed by Apple's thumb.
It's tough to tell for sure, but if I'm not alone in all this, then when the iPhone finally does come out for Verizon, it could fall flat on its face. It just took too damned long and frustrated everyone that has been patient enough to wait for it for years.
Android has made great strides in market share, but that's about it. Have you used a Droid 2? They're loaded with bloatware now... it's like buying a Dell PC. My buddy keeps asking me, "How can I remove this stupid blockbuster app??"
Android is a joke. I love my Nexus One... but Apple is still delivering the best mobile experience. AT&T is without a doubt the only downside to the iPhone. While Apple is strong-arming carriers with insane sales and joyous fans, Android devices are getting worse and worse to try and make every little device unique. One has a 5mp camera, one has a 8mp camera, one has two LED's for flash, the other only has one, blah blah blah they're all the same!
I have been vying for the Android underdog for too long now and I for one am VERY anxious to see the iPhone on CDMA, because I'll finally be able to get back to using a terrific platform on a solid network.
> It's tough to tell for sure, but if I'm not alone in all this, then when the iPhone finally does come out for Verizon, it could fall flat on its face. It just took too damned long and frustrated everyone that has been patient enough to wait for it for years.
Reminds me of that old Mitch Hedberg joke, "You will either hate us or love us... or you'll think we're ok."
Were you the kind of kid who had their Christmas morning ruined because you had to wait 364 days for it to happen? Everyone groaned when the AT&T exclusivity agreement was announced, but widely understood that it would be years before you could get the phone on another carrier. I'd argue that while it was a polarizing move, publicized exclusivity actually helped the sales of the iPhone. You either accepted that you'd have to use AT&T and got the phone regardless of the service, or you didn't. Anyone waiting with baited breath for a second carrier in the US was either ignorant, stupid, or both. The options were clear. Now that exclusivity is about to be over there is a second wave of adoption coming. Why? Because the things that made the phone worth buying to begin with are still there, and the only deal-breaker for most people is going away. Everyone who "needed" an iPhone already has one. Everyone who "likes" the iPhone is about to have it be an option.
I would love to see the facts supporting your hypothesis that, "AT&T gave up its exclusivity deal with Apple for the iPhone back in the spring of this year. Verizon and other insiders had to have known well in advance that they were going to. They should have been ready for a release in July, at the latest." You're making assertions about the strategy for the next phase of one of the most popular consumer electronic devices ever, and you're backing them up with the word "should."
My guess is that there's a huge pent up demand among people who want an iPhone in theory, but not enough to switch carriers in practice. It's hard to believe that the iPhone could literally "fall on its face", as you say.
We've been hearing that the iPhone will be on Verizon "any day now" for the past three years. I'll believe it when I see it in a Verizon store. They can't even fill the preorders for white iPhones....
It's beginning to feel like the Duke Nukem Forever of phones. It's been rumored too many times over the years for me to believe it until I actually hold it in my hands. Perhaps it will actually happen soon, but I remain skeptical.
(Yes, I know DNF is actually coming out, it appears. Gearbox just had to go and ruin a perfectly good metaphor by releasing a game that people have wanted for years.)
The fact that the white iPhone has not shipped is mutually exclusive from carrier availability rumors. With that said - although WSJ has been historically accurate on occasions, I've got a heavy filter on for things like this until it comes from Steve Jobs himself.
Folks seem to forget that not everyone has the option of switching carriers. The most obvious example of this are people who get their phone from their company via a bulk contract with a particular provider, as I used to when working at a large bank. If your company is only offering you Verizon service, you're not going to give up an essentially free wireless account on that carrier to pay $100/mo for an ATT account, even if you would rather have an iPhone. A lot of folks are also not aware of number portability yet - I still see notices that folks have changed their numbers because they got a new carrier - so they may think that buying an iPhone on ATT would mean changing numbers.
Do you mind sharing your age range? The reason I ask is, I work for an agency, and we have blackberry service provided by T-Mobile, which we are free to use as our personal phone.
However, most people, especially those 35 and under, and our technically inclined folks, all still carry their own phone. Primarily because they want the iPhone, or in some cases, want Android.
This isn't happening for the exact same reasons it's never been happening:
1. Newspapers and bloggers love this story. It generates clicks.
2. People want an iPhone on other networks. This makes them want to believe this in spite of the evidence.
3. CDMA doesn't do simultaneous voice and data. Apple is unlikely to try and explain such a difference to consumers given their focus on user experience.
4. CDMA is a dead/dying technology. Jobs summed this up In his D8 interview (when talking about Flash): Apple picks technologies in their "Spring". CDMA will be phased out in favor of LTE.
5. Most of the world uses GSM. The market for CDMA is small. People in the US forget this because of Verizon.
6. Apple tests far more products than they release. I'm sure there has been a CDMA iPhone. That doesn't mean it will be launched as a product.
7. AT&T had a five year exclusivity deal with the iPhone starting in 2007 according to court documents. While this may have changed it seems unlikely that AT&T would give this up without getting something huge in return. The only possibility realistically us that AT&T has failed to meet it's contractual requirements somehow.
8. AT&T service apparently sucks in SF and NYC, where most tech journalists and bloggers are. They are fine in most of the rest of the country. But this creates a huge sample bias in the press.
If Apple does a CDMA anything it will, in my opinion, be an iPad.
I was dubious, but the last line really clicks. A verizon iPad would be perfect for Apple. The iPhone 4 was the last true iteration of the iPhone. I imagine the team has mostly moved into developing the next iPad.
The only thing that matters to me now is the day apple starts selling all iphones unlocked. I don't want to go through firmware hacks to unlock an iphone or be forced on to a contract in order to buy it, I just want to be able to throw in any sim card and just go.
So basically entire report based on stuff some people heard from some other people. "Apple is also developing a new iPhone model, said people briefed on the matter"
But Verizon doesn't have simultaneous voice/data, so how will this work out? One of the main selling points (in the iPhone commercials) is that you can check your email/use Safari while making a call.
I'm pretty underwhelmed by that argument, given that my iPhone 3G on AT&T's network in NYC can barely do voice OR data, let alone both at the same time.
I'm on Verizon with a data plan (have a Pre). I honestly can't remember the last time I needed to use voice and data at the same time. I don't think this is as big of a deal as you're making it out to be.
I'm pretty sure those were AT&T commercials, not Apple commercials. And given that no Verizon customers have simultaneous voice/data, it's pretty clearly not make-or-break to the target market of a Verizon phone.
Also, the limitation only applies to cellular data; anywhere a Verizon customer has wifi they can use both.
I'm pretty sure I read it on Boy Genius Report that Verizon had plans of implementing Voice over Revision A (VoR A) this year. That should take care of the simultaneous Voice/Data connection without having to wait for Voice over LTE.
I've used this maybe once or twice. Granted, I'd have been pretty annoyed if I tried to do it and discovered I couldn't, but it would have had fairly minimal impact after the initial indignation wore off.
People don't buy smart phones to spend all their time talking on them. I'm sure some people do, but that's not the core feature and not the reason why people buy them.
If the time comes when Apple does release a Verizon iPhone, it won't matter. Apple has already alienated potential customers by forcing them to switch to AT&T. Droid's success is an indicator of peoples' unwillingness to switch. Verizon's customer service can be lacking at times, but not enough that I would have switched to AT&T.
[+] [-] mattparcher|15 years ago|reply
In early August, John Gruber wrote that: “The wheels are turning on N92, the CDMA variant of the iPhone 4... It’s right about where you’d think it would be if it were scheduled to go on sale in January. The CDMA iPhone is no longer a cold storage, keep-it-alive-just-in-case-we-need-it project.” [1]
He noted that the CDMA iPhone could be headed for China Telecom first - the competitor to China Unicom, who just launched a GSM iPhone 4 in that country.
He cites anonymous tipsters, as well as:
- Bloomberg says Verizon iPhone coming in January [2]
- CEA announces the Verizon CEO as the keynote speaker for CES in January [3]
- Steve Cheney claims that Apple has placed orders for “millions of units of Qualcomm CDMA chipsets” for December [4]
- Digitimes reports that Pegatron Technology will begin mass production in December of CDMA iPhones for Verizon and China Telecom [5]
[1] http://daringfireball.net/2010/08/n92
[2] http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-06-29/verizon-wireless-sa...
[3] http://cesweb.org/news/080410.asp#4200
[4] http://techcrunch.com/2010/08/08/verizon-iphone-january/
[5] http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20100809VL202.html
[+] [-] noilly|15 years ago|reply
[+] [-] thaumaturgy|15 years ago|reply
AT&T gave up its exclusivity deal with Apple for the iPhone back in the spring of this year. Verizon and other insiders had to have known well in advance that they were going to. They should have been ready for a release in July, at the latest.
Instead, Android has made great strides. I'm not a gadget guy when it comes to my phone; I just want it to work and be easy to use and not frustrate me. So, I've played with the various releases of Android and have continued to hold out for an iPhone ... until 2.2. 2.2 is good enough for me, and best of all, Android appears to be gaining ground on the iPhone, and it isn't being crushed by Apple's thumb.
It's tough to tell for sure, but if I'm not alone in all this, then when the iPhone finally does come out for Verizon, it could fall flat on its face. It just took too damned long and frustrated everyone that has been patient enough to wait for it for years.
[+] [-] whalesalad|15 years ago|reply
Keep in mind... Blockbuster just filed for Bankruptcy... http://arstechnica.com/media/news/2010/09/blockbuster-offici...
Android is a joke. I love my Nexus One... but Apple is still delivering the best mobile experience. AT&T is without a doubt the only downside to the iPhone. While Apple is strong-arming carriers with insane sales and joyous fans, Android devices are getting worse and worse to try and make every little device unique. One has a 5mp camera, one has a 8mp camera, one has two LED's for flash, the other only has one, blah blah blah they're all the same!
I have been vying for the Android underdog for too long now and I for one am VERY anxious to see the iPhone on CDMA, because I'll finally be able to get back to using a terrific platform on a solid network.
[+] [-] portman|15 years ago|reply
Source? I thought Apple was still in the middle of their 5-year agreement.
http://www.engadget.com/2010/05/10/confirmed-apple-and-atand...
http://stadium.weblogsinc.com/engadget/files/Apple_iPhone_Ex...
http://stadium.weblogsinc.com/engadget/files/Apple_iPhone_Ex...
[+] [-] ary|15 years ago|reply
Reminds me of that old Mitch Hedberg joke, "You will either hate us or love us... or you'll think we're ok."
Were you the kind of kid who had their Christmas morning ruined because you had to wait 364 days for it to happen? Everyone groaned when the AT&T exclusivity agreement was announced, but widely understood that it would be years before you could get the phone on another carrier. I'd argue that while it was a polarizing move, publicized exclusivity actually helped the sales of the iPhone. You either accepted that you'd have to use AT&T and got the phone regardless of the service, or you didn't. Anyone waiting with baited breath for a second carrier in the US was either ignorant, stupid, or both. The options were clear. Now that exclusivity is about to be over there is a second wave of adoption coming. Why? Because the things that made the phone worth buying to begin with are still there, and the only deal-breaker for most people is going away. Everyone who "needed" an iPhone already has one. Everyone who "likes" the iPhone is about to have it be an option.
I would love to see the facts supporting your hypothesis that, "AT&T gave up its exclusivity deal with Apple for the iPhone back in the spring of this year. Verizon and other insiders had to have known well in advance that they were going to. They should have been ready for a release in July, at the latest." You're making assertions about the strategy for the next phase of one of the most popular consumer electronic devices ever, and you're backing them up with the word "should."
[+] [-] tptacek|15 years ago|reply
[+] [-] brown9-2|15 years ago|reply
So if Verizon has been losing out on potential iPhone sales for the past few months, aren't they also making up for it with increased Android sales?
[+] [-] nuclear_eclipse|15 years ago|reply
[+] [-] kgermino|15 years ago|reply
iPad: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405274870340570457501...
No iPhone 4 Recall: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405274870468260457536...
Job's Liver Transplant: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124546193182433491.html
And a TechCrunch article mentioning it: http://techcrunch.com/2010/07/15/iphone-4-recall/
It appears that Yukari Iwatani Kane has a connection to Job's inner circle...
[+] [-] jokermatt999|15 years ago|reply
(Yes, I know DNF is actually coming out, it appears. Gearbox just had to go and ruin a perfectly good metaphor by releasing a game that people have wanted for years.)
[+] [-] stevefink|15 years ago|reply
[+] [-] tomkarlo|15 years ago|reply
It's also worth noting that overseas, where the iPhone is not tied to ATT, Apple continues to outpace Android significantly: http://www.clickz.com/clickz/stats/1733041/apple-google-cont...
[+] [-] dailyrorschach|15 years ago|reply
However, most people, especially those 35 and under, and our technically inclined folks, all still carry their own phone. Primarily because they want the iPhone, or in some cases, want Android.
[+] [-] cletus|15 years ago|reply
1. Newspapers and bloggers love this story. It generates clicks.
2. People want an iPhone on other networks. This makes them want to believe this in spite of the evidence.
3. CDMA doesn't do simultaneous voice and data. Apple is unlikely to try and explain such a difference to consumers given their focus on user experience.
4. CDMA is a dead/dying technology. Jobs summed this up In his D8 interview (when talking about Flash): Apple picks technologies in their "Spring". CDMA will be phased out in favor of LTE.
5. Most of the world uses GSM. The market for CDMA is small. People in the US forget this because of Verizon.
6. Apple tests far more products than they release. I'm sure there has been a CDMA iPhone. That doesn't mean it will be launched as a product.
7. AT&T had a five year exclusivity deal with the iPhone starting in 2007 according to court documents. While this may have changed it seems unlikely that AT&T would give this up without getting something huge in return. The only possibility realistically us that AT&T has failed to meet it's contractual requirements somehow.
8. AT&T service apparently sucks in SF and NYC, where most tech journalists and bloggers are. They are fine in most of the rest of the country. But this creates a huge sample bias in the press.
If Apple does a CDMA anything it will, in my opinion, be an iPad.
[+] [-] andreyf|15 years ago|reply
[+] [-] fondue|15 years ago|reply
[+] [-] jcroberts|15 years ago|reply
http://pdadb.net/index.php?m=specs&id=2548&c=verizon...
The database at pdadb.net has specs on a number of "known but unreleased" devices.
[+] [-] seanalltogether|15 years ago|reply
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[+] [-] eguanlao|15 years ago|reply
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[+] [-] lotusleaf1987|15 years ago|reply
[+] [-] martin|15 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Zev|15 years ago|reply
[+] [-] irons|15 years ago|reply
Also, the limitation only applies to cellular data; anywhere a Verizon customer has wifi they can use both.
[+] [-] quux|15 years ago|reply
[+] [-] desigooner|15 years ago|reply
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