I care a lot about the Mac, and I'm not sure what to think about the fact that Mac unit sales are down again.
The Mac has been growing for a long time, and they seem to have reached a plateau. I assume that's the reason why Macs have became absurdly expensive in the last few years -- when they can't grow unit sales, they need to grow revenue per unit.
The result is that Apple doesn't build the computer most of their potential customers want -- a $1000 Macbook. I understand that they don't care about the $300 netbook market, but not offering a decent $1000 laptop is a bad idea. It means they are going to loose consumers and students – there are decent alternatives at that price point. Or, people like me, who just keep using their old Macbooks because the high price of the new machines isn't worth the marginally improved performance.
Where does this lead us? I don't see how the Mac should grow from here, and as a Mac software developer that worries me. I want to be in a growing market, not a stagnant one. I'm probably going to be okay for the next few years, but is the Mac still going to be a worthwhile platform for a small software company in 10-15 years? I don't know.
I care a lot about the Mac, and I'm not sure what to think about the fact that Mac unit sales are down again.
Well, what do you expect people to buy? I'm sitting on a six year old MBP, having gotten rid of my 2009 iMac. New iMac? Meh, it might come to that, but I already have enough displays. Mac Mini to go with the display I already have? Surely you jest to suggest a four-year old model. Mac Pro? See: Mac Mini. Current laptops aren't an option unless I get desperate (i. e., current MBP dies tomorrow). I mean, I want a new Mac, there just isn't anything out there that makes me feel like I'd be getting an upgrade.
So my theory is that a lot of people are in the cycle I've been in for the last three years: "Meh, I'll wait to see what they have next year...<year passes>...Meh, I'll wait until...holy shit, is this thing really six years old?...<year passes>"
I care a lot about the Mac, and I'm not sure what to think about the fact that Mac unit sales are down again.
The Mac has been growing for a long time, and they seem to have reached a plateau. I assume that's the reason why Macs have became absurdly expensive in the last few years -- when they can't grow unit sales, they need to grow revenue per unit.
Well, what do you expect? They keep redesigning the hardware in authoritarian ways: Thou shalt not upgrade the memory yourself (RIP old Mac Pro aluminum tower); Thou shalt not have F and ESC keys; Thou shalt heretofore use USB-C and dongles or will be sent to dongle Hell (I think one of them only has 2); Thou shalt not have feedback on keys. Etc.
And in each of the Commandments there are those who rush to defend: "but I love the new keyboard, I remapped the ESC to Caps, and anyway I love the new garbage can design of the workstation, I prefer soldered memory".
In Australia cost is a real problem. Wages have stagnated over the last 15 years, the AU$ has fallen, but Macs have gone up in price.
A new entry level 13" MBP 16/512 is A$2,819
Factor in increased discretional spending priorities for smart phones, smart home devices and gaming PCs or Consoles and you have a market problem.
It's not an argument that Macs are expensive as such, or dont represent good value. It's just that Macs are now very expensive for Australian consumers.
Anecodtally many workplaces will now provide employees with a laptop by default, so the need for a home computer is significantly reduced for some people. If you have a family, then a gaming PC or a console is what the Kids want, not a Mac.
I felt the same way when Apple discontinued the $499 Mac Mini. It's vital to the platform that "anyone can afford a Mac."
But since then, there's the iPad. Apple's line is "the Mac is a truck, but most automobiles aren't trucks." And I hate to admit it, but for web browsing and word processing, the iPad is just fine. I don't like it, but I get it.
The whole recent "what's a computer?" ad campaign kind of signaled that Apple believes we should be using more powerful iPads + keyboards instead of notebooks on a daily basis, right?
I think the more provocative question than "why are Mac sales down again" is: "how do people work? What IS work today?"
For me, I really truly cannot imagine working on anything other than a real computer. I need a lot of text and number input for really any kind of work. Anything that could be called work.
So what's happening with people? With the economy?
All they need to do is keep the old form factor and update the internals. No redesigns. I've been waiting for a 11" Macbook Air with Retina screen, but I'll never get it. Many people would buy a cheese grater Mac Pro with updated internals, or a Mac Mini with updated cpu's.
My feeling is that they were so jealous of Steve Jobs legacy that they had to redesign everything to prove something, and screwed it all up in the process. Maybe it's like having a parent who is very famous and successful and having to live in their shadow.
Actually I really like my 2017 Macbook Air which I bought for $800. It may have old architecture but the system 'just works', mainly because of the OS (Windows 10 is far from being a decent dev platform). I primarily use it for coding, and for heavy tasks I delegate them to my PC running HyperV.
P.S. I don't really understand the obsession with getting the latest gen processors. Your main bottleneck is IO anyway if you don't do video encoding or some other CPU intensive tasks.
The question is why do you care if Mac sales are down? When the Mac was my primary computer in the 90s, I cared very much about Mac sales because if the Mac died, Apple died. But Apple doesn’t live and die by the Mac.
I doubt Apple will discontinue Mac sales in the foreseeable future.
I plan to rejoin the Mac fold next year and by the look of things, it will be a 5K iMac just because I want to do some Unixy things and you can develop anything on the Mac - iOS, Android, Mac, and Windows.
All of the third party software I care about is open source except for using MS Office occasionally, JetBrains Rider, and Plex. As long as the software support is there, I don’t care.
The MacBook Pro line was just refreshed 2 weeks ago. I wonder if people were holding off on buying a new machine because of the keyboard issues (if people knew about those) or just the knowledge that new machines were likely to come soon.
If half the devs clinging to their 2012-13 rMBP with missing keys and wire-exposed MagSafe cables would just get with the program and upgrade, sales would go thru the roof.
I think they could start selling MacOS as a competitor to Windows. I realise this would limit some of the coolness and designer feel (and quality) you get from mac hardware, but hardware has become a lot more stable in the past decade or so. with their marketing, they could convince consumers to ditch windows and just put MacOS on their PCs for $X/month.
> I'm probably going to be okay for the next few years, but is the Mac still going to be a worthwhile platform for a small software company in 10-15 years? I don't know.
I think it is more important to measure its users usage shares, rather than unit sold market shares. For example, out of the 2 billion Mobile Phones sold in 2017, 1.3 billon of those are Smartphones, and 230 Million of those are iPhones. That is 230 out of 1300, or ~18%. However if we look at usage, there are close to 3 billion Smartphone users today, and according to Tim Cook's word in today's conference on iPhone user growth, we are looking at around 800M iPhone user, a 26% of the market. The iPhone user base is still growing, as it matches towards one billion iPhone users.
The Mac users bases last report were around 150 million, out of the estimated 1.5 billion PC in use. So 10% of total user base. The PC user base hasn't been growing at all, while the Mac user base keeps growing. I think the most important metrics to Apple, is how many users are leaving its ecosystem and how many users are entering it. It reported 60% of the Mac are sold to new buyers. So Apple is roughly adding ~10M Mac users per year.
I used to think Apple not caring about Mac was because they see Tablet / iPad ultimately as a replacement of Mac. But this hasn't happened. ( yet ) And it may take another 10 years before we know if Tablet could really take over. In the mean time I think it would be wise for Apple to keep the Mac growing, it needs at least 300M user base to make the ecosystem solid.
The thing that worry me most is Apple's inefficiency. With Steve Jobs, he manage to create so many thing with so little budget. Apple now take 7% of its revenue to R&D, the highest ratio it its history and it seems they don't have much to show for. Hopefully we will have MacBook SE and iPhone SE Plus this September.
It's a $330 "laptop". It's less of a general computing device, but there's plenty of software avail for it.
You and I may not think about it as a development laptop, but it does the majority of what the majority of cheap laptop owners want. I love the iPad for family members because it Just Works(tm) and I don't have to play IT for most of it (save the occasional force-quit app).
Cash on hand now upwards of $230B. Your average CNBC talking head would probably recommend a large acquisition soon. Names usually whispered about include: Uber, Tesla, Snap or Netflix. Or a content studio such as Comcast, Disney, or Fox.
But such advice ignores the gargantuan growth that cloud services are experiencing right now. Although iCloud, iTunes, ApplePay and the AppStore are almost solely focused on consumer internet and retail. It's conceivable that $APPL would make a push to deliver more SaaS offerings. Perhaps analagous to Adobe's Creative Cloud suite for profession digital content creators.
Great conversation thread here. I will add my bit: I have been an Apple customer since buying serial number 72 of the Apple II (and worked writing software for 45+ years).
I love the iPad. I use Mac laptops for programming at work and my personal projects, but, I use my iPad for SSHing to my servers, reading, audio books, watch movies, research material for new books and technologies I want to learn, take online courses, write, etc.
Yes, laptops are great for writing code, but much of my thinking time is done with an iPad. When I retire, I can imagine just using a remote VPS for recreational coding with whatever can get decent screen space and a keyboard for a few SSH shells, and everything else could be an iPad.
I believe around $199 a share is when AAPL would become the first company ever to have a market cap of $1T. It could happen tomorrow. For reference, the first $1B market cap company was US Steel in 1901.
$4.7B in iPad sales. That's 4.7 BILLION. At nearly 10% of their revenues, the going-going-gone tablet category still has some legs. Who would have thunk?
/edited the numbers. I had mixed up the Mac and iPad revenue figures.
The iPhone is a beast and a market leader - that is known, and shown in these results.
The Mac however is in decline - Apple seem to have abandoned it in favour of their cash cow (as many on here have complained) and these results just further prove it.
iPhone Market share (~11%) and unit sales of iPhones are flat compared to last year on a no-growth market. Service and Mac sales seem to be dependent on iPhone sales.
Quarter by quarter Apple turns into a one trick pony where most income depends on the success of their smartphone market share of ~15 +- 4%.
If there were a novel approach to smartphones/mobile computing - Apple/iPhone would look a lot like RIM/Blackberry in 2010/2011 where sales and revenues (services) skyrocketed yet analysts were warning us. Yet there's to tech rising to kill smartphones. So Apple is safe for some years ahead.
Major congrats to them and to the late Jobs. I'd be in the Ballmer category... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qycUOENFIBs Making telcos "subsidize" it, must be right there with the "pay just the minimum on your credit card" business wise. Brilliant.
there have been about a dozen new hires at my work, each of them getting a new mac book and accessories to develop on.
multiply that by all of the new hires across the country and some of the lowest unemployment numbers in years and you've got a good set up for apple's hardware division to make a ton of sales last quarter.
...
but unfortunately, looking at their data, it looks like I was wrong: unit sales for macs fell by 13% compared to last year, and 9% compared to last quarter.
interesting.
Edit: downvotes because I made a prediction before looking at the reports then acknowledged I was wrong and didn't delete my post. Cool.
Windows is still something like 88% of the corporate computer market, with macOS at around 9%, last I checked. Most companies aren't purchasing Apple hardware for their employees.
[+] [-] jakobegger|7 years ago|reply
The Mac has been growing for a long time, and they seem to have reached a plateau. I assume that's the reason why Macs have became absurdly expensive in the last few years -- when they can't grow unit sales, they need to grow revenue per unit.
The result is that Apple doesn't build the computer most of their potential customers want -- a $1000 Macbook. I understand that they don't care about the $300 netbook market, but not offering a decent $1000 laptop is a bad idea. It means they are going to loose consumers and students – there are decent alternatives at that price point. Or, people like me, who just keep using their old Macbooks because the high price of the new machines isn't worth the marginally improved performance.
Where does this lead us? I don't see how the Mac should grow from here, and as a Mac software developer that worries me. I want to be in a growing market, not a stagnant one. I'm probably going to be okay for the next few years, but is the Mac still going to be a worthwhile platform for a small software company in 10-15 years? I don't know.
[+] [-] mikestew|7 years ago|reply
Well, what do you expect people to buy? I'm sitting on a six year old MBP, having gotten rid of my 2009 iMac. New iMac? Meh, it might come to that, but I already have enough displays. Mac Mini to go with the display I already have? Surely you jest to suggest a four-year old model. Mac Pro? See: Mac Mini. Current laptops aren't an option unless I get desperate (i. e., current MBP dies tomorrow). I mean, I want a new Mac, there just isn't anything out there that makes me feel like I'd be getting an upgrade.
So my theory is that a lot of people are in the cycle I've been in for the last three years: "Meh, I'll wait to see what they have next year...<year passes>...Meh, I'll wait until...holy shit, is this thing really six years old?...<year passes>"
[+] [-] mancerayder|7 years ago|reply
Well, what do you expect? They keep redesigning the hardware in authoritarian ways: Thou shalt not upgrade the memory yourself (RIP old Mac Pro aluminum tower); Thou shalt not have F and ESC keys; Thou shalt heretofore use USB-C and dongles or will be sent to dongle Hell (I think one of them only has 2); Thou shalt not have feedback on keys. Etc.
And in each of the Commandments there are those who rush to defend: "but I love the new keyboard, I remapped the ESC to Caps, and anyway I love the new garbage can design of the workstation, I prefer soldered memory".
And that the sales numbers speak? Fantastic.
[+] [-] firecall|7 years ago|reply
A new entry level 13" MBP 16/512 is A$2,819
Factor in increased discretional spending priorities for smart phones, smart home devices and gaming PCs or Consoles and you have a market problem.
It's not an argument that Macs are expensive as such, or dont represent good value. It's just that Macs are now very expensive for Australian consumers.
Anecodtally many workplaces will now provide employees with a laptop by default, so the need for a home computer is significantly reduced for some people. If you have a family, then a gaming PC or a console is what the Kids want, not a Mac.
[+] [-] Eric_WVGG|7 years ago|reply
But since then, there's the iPad. Apple's line is "the Mac is a truck, but most automobiles aren't trucks." And I hate to admit it, but for web browsing and word processing, the iPad is just fine. I don't like it, but I get it.
[+] [-] joezydeco|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] microdrum|7 years ago|reply
For me, I really truly cannot imagine working on anything other than a real computer. I need a lot of text and number input for really any kind of work. Anything that could be called work.
So what's happening with people? With the economy?
[+] [-] mh8h|7 years ago|reply
Comparing the base models of the 15-inch Macbook Pros on Geekbench:
[+] [-] batteryhorse|7 years ago|reply
My feeling is that they were so jealous of Steve Jobs legacy that they had to redesign everything to prove something, and screwed it all up in the process. Maybe it's like having a parent who is very famous and successful and having to live in their shadow.
[+] [-] jitix|7 years ago|reply
P.S. I don't really understand the obsession with getting the latest gen processors. Your main bottleneck is IO anyway if you don't do video encoding or some other CPU intensive tasks.
[+] [-] scarface74|7 years ago|reply
I doubt Apple will discontinue Mac sales in the foreseeable future.
I plan to rejoin the Mac fold next year and by the look of things, it will be a 5K iMac just because I want to do some Unixy things and you can develop anything on the Mac - iOS, Android, Mac, and Windows.
All of the third party software I care about is open source except for using MS Office occasionally, JetBrains Rider, and Plex. As long as the software support is there, I don’t care.
[+] [-] lev99|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] IBM|7 years ago|reply
[1] https://www.macrumors.com/2017/06/05/apple-macbook-lineup-cp...
[+] [-] dangoor|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] hindsightbias|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] mikec3010|7 years ago|reply
I think they could start selling MacOS as a competitor to Windows. I realise this would limit some of the coolness and designer feel (and quality) you get from mac hardware, but hardware has become a lot more stable in the past decade or so. with their marketing, they could convince consumers to ditch windows and just put MacOS on their PCs for $X/month.
[+] [-] ksec|7 years ago|reply
I think it is more important to measure its users usage shares, rather than unit sold market shares. For example, out of the 2 billion Mobile Phones sold in 2017, 1.3 billon of those are Smartphones, and 230 Million of those are iPhones. That is 230 out of 1300, or ~18%. However if we look at usage, there are close to 3 billion Smartphone users today, and according to Tim Cook's word in today's conference on iPhone user growth, we are looking at around 800M iPhone user, a 26% of the market. The iPhone user base is still growing, as it matches towards one billion iPhone users.
The Mac users bases last report were around 150 million, out of the estimated 1.5 billion PC in use. So 10% of total user base. The PC user base hasn't been growing at all, while the Mac user base keeps growing. I think the most important metrics to Apple, is how many users are leaving its ecosystem and how many users are entering it. It reported 60% of the Mac are sold to new buyers. So Apple is roughly adding ~10M Mac users per year.
I used to think Apple not caring about Mac was because they see Tablet / iPad ultimately as a replacement of Mac. But this hasn't happened. ( yet ) And it may take another 10 years before we know if Tablet could really take over. In the mean time I think it would be wise for Apple to keep the Mac growing, it needs at least 300M user base to make the ecosystem solid.
The thing that worry me most is Apple's inefficiency. With Steve Jobs, he manage to create so many thing with so little budget. Apple now take 7% of its revenue to R&D, the highest ratio it its history and it seems they don't have much to show for. Hopefully we will have MacBook SE and iPhone SE Plus this September.
Today's Apple is good, but we demand great.
[+] [-] whywhywhywhy|7 years ago|reply
Don't forget dropping the BOM in increasingly petty ways for such an expensive machine like no longer including the short power cable.
[+] [-] thephyber|7 years ago|reply
It's a $330 "laptop". It's less of a general computing device, but there's plenty of software avail for it.
You and I may not think about it as a development laptop, but it does the majority of what the majority of cheap laptop owners want. I love the iPad for family members because it Just Works(tm) and I don't have to play IT for most of it (save the occasional force-quit app).
[+] [-] JKCalhoun|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] keypusher|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] ericpauley|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] pier25|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] jeffchien|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] runwerks|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] jerrycurly|7 years ago|reply
iOS is Apples futures.
If you haven’t gotten that memo in the 11 years of iOS existence, I’m sorry.
(And sadly, there is way less money to make selling iOS $0.99 apps)
[+] [-] ihuman|7 years ago|reply
https://www.macstories.net/news/apple-q3-2018-results-533-bi...
[+] [-] ArtWomb|7 years ago|reply
But such advice ignores the gargantuan growth that cloud services are experiencing right now. Although iCloud, iTunes, ApplePay and the AppStore are almost solely focused on consumer internet and retail. It's conceivable that $APPL would make a push to deliver more SaaS offerings. Perhaps analagous to Adobe's Creative Cloud suite for profession digital content creators.
[+] [-] mark_l_watson|7 years ago|reply
I love the iPad. I use Mac laptops for programming at work and my personal projects, but, I use my iPad for SSHing to my servers, reading, audio books, watch movies, research material for new books and technologies I want to learn, take online courses, write, etc.
Yes, laptops are great for writing code, but much of my thinking time is done with an iPad. When I retire, I can imagine just using a remote VPS for recreational coding with whatever can get decent screen space and a keyboard for a few SSH shells, and everything else could be an iPad.
[+] [-] maddyboo|7 years ago|reply
I guess Apple's accountants use MS Office?
1: https://www.apple.com/newsroom/pdfs/Q3FY18ConsolidatedFinanc...
[+] [-] mythz|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] willwagner|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] minimaxir|7 years ago|reply
Reporting says services revenue (App Store, Apple Care, Apple Pay, iTunes) is up 31%, despite heavy competition in those areas.
[+] [-] HenryTheHorse|7 years ago|reply
/edited the numbers. I had mixed up the Mac and iPad revenue figures.
[+] [-] pastor_elm|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] MaysonL|7 years ago|reply
Other revenue(watches and AirPods) up 37% y/y.
[+] [-] thecosas|7 years ago|reply
https://www.apple.com/investor/earnings-call/
[+] [-] vivan|7 years ago|reply
The Mac however is in decline - Apple seem to have abandoned it in favour of their cash cow (as many on here have complained) and these results just further prove it.
[+] [-] diminish|7 years ago|reply
Quarter by quarter Apple turns into a one trick pony where most income depends on the success of their smartphone market share of ~15 +- 4%.
If there were a novel approach to smartphones/mobile computing - Apple/iPhone would look a lot like RIM/Blackberry in 2010/2011 where sales and revenues (services) skyrocketed yet analysts were warning us. Yet there's to tech rising to kill smartphones. So Apple is safe for some years ahead.
Welcome to trillion+ valuation AAPL.
[+] [-] onetimemanytime|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Tomminn|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] unknown|7 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] HenryTheHorse|7 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] williesleg|7 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] ryanx435|7 years ago|reply
multiply that by all of the new hires across the country and some of the lowest unemployment numbers in years and you've got a good set up for apple's hardware division to make a ton of sales last quarter.
...
but unfortunately, looking at their data, it looks like I was wrong: unit sales for macs fell by 13% compared to last year, and 9% compared to last quarter.
interesting.
Edit: downvotes because I made a prediction before looking at the reports then acknowledged I was wrong and didn't delete my post. Cool.
[+] [-] zhonwang|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] electricslpnsld|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Spooky23|7 years ago|reply
Most of our new hires are getting ancient PCs to use as VDI thin clients.
[+] [-] alaskamiller|7 years ago|reply
MacBooks as work computers being handed out is an aberration. Has been since the 80's, 90's, and 00's.
[+] [-] willio58|7 years ago|reply