Yeah, there's a clear shift coming in the automotive industry. The auto makers who don't have plans for electrification right now are in big trouble.
Thankfully, the VW group will actually be okay - they've tasked Porsche's engineers with electrification of all the companies owned by the group.
The Taycan will be built on the J1 platform (Porsche controlled/built). Porsche is developing 3 different packages for other car makers: the SPE (Sport platform electric) for Lamborghini, and then they’re developing a PPE (Premium Platform Electric) for Audi and Mercedes, and finally, they’ll have the MEB (modular electrification box) which is a kit for anyone else who wants electric drivetrains (VW, others)
If you closer into the sales numbers (look at electrek's article about the last quarter [0]), they appear to be reducing mid-priced sedan sales at most of the other leading companies, especially the generally excellent euro manus (bmw, audi, etc). also see [1]
Their performance has nothing to do with Tesla what so ever and everything to do with the trend in the market towards SUVs and crossovers which Ford, GM etc are highly exposed to.
Tesla has a product that people want, and, importantly appeals to the new generation of prospective car owners in a way the other auto manufactures can't come close to even hoping. Youth haven't really been interested in cars in the same way and with the same level of excitement they once were for awhile now until Tesla came along.
To put simply, they will eventually figure out their manufacturing and economies of scale (they are already well on their way to doing so) and when that happens it will be a dramatic rise and unseating of power. We've seen time and time again market share and dominance means very little in the long term and the ability to manufacture a car isn't an exclusive right to the current incumbents.
We'll see. It seems that this debate has quickly polarized.
The Model 3 is still wildly expensive. The ones being shipped now aren't affordable cars. 35k really isn't affordable for a car either. It's firmly in the luxury market until 35k models ship. Even then, it doesn't make financial sense to buy a Tesla over another car without government incentives.
Charge time is a major issue and will be critical for Tesla to solve.
Durability and reliability for high miles remains to be seen. Batteries are expensive to replace.
As for manufacturing, mechanically electric vehicles are far simpler. I highly doubt there is much more to be gained from manufacturing improvements, and most of the car already benefits from the already existing economy of scale on hardware and metal forming. The issue is 1000% the battery. Everything with Tesla hinges on that battery - making it cheaper, more reliable, longer lasting. That's the hard part - because increasing range decreases efficiency because of the size and weight of the battery.
I'm excited - I think with any changes that can disrupt a business a lot of resistance will be faced. But I hope Tesla succeeds.
It's not rocket science of course (hah), they can just keep plugging away at manufacturing and get more and more efficient, eventually being as good as a "real automobile" company. I can't understand the continuing feeling that they can't just make more cars with practice, that people actually want to buy some of them. They aren't for everyone, but they are just fun electric functional cars.
Its time for Detroit & Japan to wake up to EVs. I don't own any tesla stock but my bold prediction is IF tesla is not bankrupt by this time next year, its going to wipe-the-floor with GM & the likes.
I used to think HN comments were smart, until you read a thread about Automotive.
Then you realize that this board has no Auto experience, upvotes/downvotes based on their cult hero.
Since HN rules say we cant hypothesize about Tesla Astroturfing these threads, I'll just say that the information on HN regarding automotive is... questionable.
Who care about quarter to quarter guidance, except the investors and short sellers? What actually matters is how Tesla executes compared to their long-term plans. Despite all the delays and "failed" promises, they keep exceeding their multi-year goals.
"We also want to thank all of our customers who volunteered to help us with deliveries, and our new customers who are showing their faith in Tesla by purchasing our products in such large numbers."
Isn't it illegal for a for-profit company like Tesla to make use of "volunteers"/unpaid labor? There are only narrow exceptions e.g. interns for school credit.
They are talking about the Tesla fan groups that have meetings, do test drives, demos, etc. It's no different from say, Hot Rod culture or Harley culture.
Current Tesla owners volunteered their time to help new customers take delivery and get familiar with their new vehicles over the course of a single weekend.
I think you're going to have a hard time getting any of the people involved to try and fight to be classified as "employees"
FLSA prohibits employees volunteering at their employer, to avoid that becoming "volunteering". Customers showing up to help other customers is not really contemplated by the law, and is probably just part of the "brand experience".
I suspect Tesla is referring to customers driving out to pick up their Tesla from the factory or distribution center rather than waiting for Tesla to ship it to them. Something likely encouraged by long wait times.
After seeing the recent Audi and Mercedes efforts, consensus seems to be that making EVs is not as easy as everyone thought and the big car companies still have a long way to go before they catch up
"UBS says Audi's new electric car shows industry has a long way to go to catch Tesla"
And Google is going to be in big trouble when IBM releases their search engine.
It always seems like it should be easy for legacy companies to stamp out disrupters but it almost never works out like that. It is very hard to refocus giant companies.
Sure it benefits Tesla to produce more cars to compete with the big auto companies. But I do not believe that suddenly any of them will be able crank out a cost competitive electric car with the same range in any large quantity.
Sure your existing car companies are better right now at physically building the conventional parts of a car, but the most expensive part of an electric car is the batteries. Tesla's partnership with Panasonic (Gigafactory) is their true advantage over all the other manufacturers, since they have a reliable source for large quantities of batteries. The rest of car companies are fighting for supply from LG Chem.
Big car companies waking up.. easier said than done. It is ALL just talk right now. As Tesla succeeds, they will be forced to participate. But right now, there aren't many actual players (Tesla, Nissan, GM):
https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/
If doubling the production numbers of the M3 from Q2 to Q3 isn't a dramatic increase, I don't know what is :). They are probably not attempting to have further doublings each quarter, but even smaller quarter to quarter growth rates are going to put them to impressive numbers. In Q3 Tesla already overtook Porsche.
chollida1|7 years ago
Numbers:
- Q3 production 53,239, - Bloomberg’s estimate: 53,457
- North American deliveries of 55,840 rank the Model 3 among the 10 best-selling sedans in the region--and the only one that's electric
- pretty good news in the face of what other car companies are doing
- GM sales are expected to fall 14%, after falling 13% in August.
- Analyst estimates for Ford (-9%), Toyota (-6.5%), Honda (-4.1%)
wintercharm|7 years ago
Thankfully, the VW group will actually be okay - they've tasked Porsche's engineers with electrification of all the companies owned by the group.
The Taycan will be built on the J1 platform (Porsche controlled/built). Porsche is developing 3 different packages for other car makers: the SPE (Sport platform electric) for Lamborghini, and then they’re developing a PPE (Premium Platform Electric) for Audi and Mercedes, and finally, they’ll have the MEB (modular electrification box) which is a kit for anyone else who wants electric drivetrains (VW, others)
Latteland|7 years ago
0: https://electrek.co/2018/08/01/tesla-claims-model-3-outsold-... 1: https://electrek.co/2018/05/02/tesla-model-3-best-selling-mi...
threeseed|7 years ago
Their performance has nothing to do with Tesla what so ever and everything to do with the trend in the market towards SUVs and crossovers which Ford, GM etc are highly exposed to.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-05/sick-of-s...
iamleppert|7 years ago
To put simply, they will eventually figure out their manufacturing and economies of scale (they are already well on their way to doing so) and when that happens it will be a dramatic rise and unseating of power. We've seen time and time again market share and dominance means very little in the long term and the ability to manufacture a car isn't an exclusive right to the current incumbents.
ntsplnkv2|7 years ago
The Model 3 is still wildly expensive. The ones being shipped now aren't affordable cars. 35k really isn't affordable for a car either. It's firmly in the luxury market until 35k models ship. Even then, it doesn't make financial sense to buy a Tesla over another car without government incentives.
Charge time is a major issue and will be critical for Tesla to solve.
Durability and reliability for high miles remains to be seen. Batteries are expensive to replace.
As for manufacturing, mechanically electric vehicles are far simpler. I highly doubt there is much more to be gained from manufacturing improvements, and most of the car already benefits from the already existing economy of scale on hardware and metal forming. The issue is 1000% the battery. Everything with Tesla hinges on that battery - making it cheaper, more reliable, longer lasting. That's the hard part - because increasing range decreases efficiency because of the size and weight of the battery.
I'm excited - I think with any changes that can disrupt a business a lot of resistance will be faced. But I hope Tesla succeeds.
Latteland|7 years ago
DesiLurker|7 years ago
MrEfficiency|7 years ago
Then you realize that this board has no Auto experience, upvotes/downvotes based on their cult hero.
Since HN rules say we cant hypothesize about Tesla Astroturfing these threads, I'll just say that the information on HN regarding automotive is... questionable.
sidcool|7 years ago
melling|7 years ago
jaclaz|7 years ago
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18094836
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18095198
kbutler|7 years ago
rcMgD2BwE72F|7 years ago
Just check this out: http://www.autonews.com/article/20140113/OEM/301139981/audac... (or watch any JB Straubel's keynote)
They're killing it. In fact, the naysayers just keep moving the goalpost.
brisance|7 years ago
"We also want to thank all of our customers who volunteered to help us with deliveries, and our new customers who are showing their faith in Tesla by purchasing our products in such large numbers."
Isn't it illegal for a for-profit company like Tesla to make use of "volunteers"/unpaid labor? There are only narrow exceptions e.g. interns for school credit.
https://webapps.dol.gov/elaws/whd/flsa/docs/volunteers.asp
https://www.nomoreunpaidlabor.com
Raphmedia|7 years ago
rando444|7 years ago
I think you're going to have a hard time getting any of the people involved to try and fight to be classified as "employees"
jccooper|7 years ago
vinceguidry|7 years ago
lykr0n|7 years ago
codeulike|7 years ago
"UBS says Audi's new electric car shows industry has a long way to go to catch Tesla"
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/18/ubs-says-audis-disappointing...
crunchyfrog|7 years ago
It always seems like it should be easy for legacy companies to stamp out disrupters but it almost never works out like that. It is very hard to refocus giant companies.
sbradford26|7 years ago
Sure your existing car companies are better right now at physically building the conventional parts of a car, but the most expensive part of an electric car is the batteries. Tesla's partnership with Panasonic (Gigafactory) is their true advantage over all the other manufacturers, since they have a reliable source for large quantities of batteries. The rest of car companies are fighting for supply from LG Chem.
martin_bech|7 years ago
electriclove|7 years ago
_ph_|7 years ago