[propman]

Tesla could realistically hit 500,000 cars next year, almost 10% of total cars sold in America. The electric revolution is here and it’s finally profitable! Budget EVs with solid range are coming next year too with the 2019 leaf!

Convince congress to extend the federal tax rebate (no real increase in spending just keeping what’s already there) by like 2 years which is just maybe $1-2B more and electric will be the way to go for good!

[kllrnohj]

> Tesla could realistically hit 500,000 cars next year, almost 10% of total cars sold in America.

US consumer auto sales per year are in the 16-17 million range. I personally wouldn't consider 3% to be "almost 10%", do you?

But I don't think they realistically can hit 500,000 cars next year, either. They moved 70k cars in Q3. There's no reason to believe they can double that in 6 months or so particularly as the Model S & X sales have been fairly stable. So that means the Model 3 needs to somehow grow to around 400k/year in order to get to 500k cars next year.

They state production of Model 3 was up to 5,300 per week and that the production system had stabilized with gradual monthly improvements. So currently Tesla can only even build 275k Model 3's a year. I don't think doubling that in such a short time frame meshes with Tesla's comments of "gradual monthly improvements."

350,000 cars in 2019 seems much more likely assuming Model 3 demand holds strong.

[propman]

I meant cars, not all autos. Cars are 6.2 million. Musk said he’s trying to get to 6000 a week by the end of August and 10,000 a week in 2019. The demand is clearly there as are the profit margins even sans ev credit. I know he overestimates things a lot but that tells me they are seriously considering ramping up production. As the production and now delivery processes streamline, they can definitely hit 6000 by end of year and realistically hit 8000 by mid 2019.

[Reason077]

Elon Musk has reiterated recently that Tesla's goal is to reach Model 3 production of 10,000 per week in 2019.

But not all of those sales will be in the US. According to the Q3 update document:

"The mid-sized premium sedan market in Europe is more than twice as big as the same segment in the US. This is why we are excited to bring Model 3 to Europe early next year. "

[adventured]

> US consumer auto sales per year are in the 16-17 million range. I personally wouldn't consider 3% to be "almost 10%", do you?

The parent comment said "cars." You switched that to consumer auto sales. 6.3 million passenger cars were sold in the US in 2017. With passenger car sales declining and generally losing popularity in the US (dropping from 7.9m in 2014), it's plausible that 500,000 will in fact be "almost" 10% of total cars sold in the US in 2019.

[antisthenes]

What's just as amazing is that this whole revolution is done off the back of the Li-Ion 18650/21700 battery cell.

Time will tell how good of a choice it is.

[aphextron]

>What's just as amazing is that this whole revolution is done off the back of the Li-Ion 18650/21700 battery cell.

18650 is the cell form factor, not a specific anode/cathode/electrolyte combo. There have been leaps and bounds in cell chemistry over the last 10 years which have made it possible to build high-end expensive cars, but we still need about double the performance of current tech to achieve true low cost mass adoption. A $45,000 car with 300 miles range is just barely enough to convince well off people to buy a new toy. The first $20,000 EV with 300 miles range will change the world.

[greglindahl]

I recall reading many HN posters commenting that this cylindrical form factor was a terrible choice for cars. Now several other carmakers have adopted it.

[simonebrunozzi]

Right! Lots more details here (and good comparison of the two): https://www.dnkpower.com/teslas-mass-production-21700-batter...

[marricks]

Is that comment anything but FUD?

They are able to make the cheapest batteries for cars and have seemed to be pretty successful...

[hikari-boulders]

I don't understand how "just maybe $1-2B more" is "no real increase in spending".

[bsder]

> Tesla could realistically hit 500,000 cars next year, almost 10% of total cars sold in America.

Is that really feasible? That's roughly BMW and Mercedes combined in the US.

It's really easy to forget on the West Coast of the US that BWM, Mercedes and the like are actually rare in the rest of the country.

[xienze]

What? Define “rare”. If you’re in any reasonably-sized metro I’d be quite shocked if a day goes by where the average person doesn’t see a BMW or Mercedes.

[smogcutter]

If the electric revolution requires a federal subsidy to compete then it has not, in fact, arrived.

[ZeroGravitas]

By that logic the gasoline engine has not yet arrived either.