I'm sure Tesla will also have EVs as good as Tesla for half the price by 2020.
They'll also have a vastly improved super charger network, a mature software ecosystem, a mature direct sales/servicing model, and whatever else they dream up like Powerwall and other systems that can potentially add value to the whole. VW will just be scratching the surface by 2020 while Tesla will likely continue sprinting ahead.
When EV gets popular enough won't all petrol station install chargers too? When this happens the super charger network will not be a large advantage. The only issue I see is if each company creates it's own "super/fast" charging system and DRMs it for "security" reasons.
Not sure. They did not really deliver on the Model 3 initial price, since most models are sold with the more expensive options. And if I remember correctly the price paid by the consumer depends on government subsidies as well to promote EVs.
This episode [0] from a16z doesn't fully agree with that sentiment. It has to do with the commodification of EV parts and EV services, allowing traditional market players to catch up with the disruptors.
I drove VW eGolf recently. Under the hood one clearly see that VW treats electrical cars as nuisance. The was a lot of empty space and a mess of cables. That is, VM still designed a car that was essentially a IC car with the engine removed and the battery stuffed under the back seats. If VM manages to change that in 2 years, then great. But they have a lot of cultural inertia to overcome.
Tesla probably won’t be able to churn out the millions of EV a year the chinese Market demands. Someone else will do it and become an EV giant. My bets are not on VW though.
I wish. I'd pay a lot if someone would make a good e-version of a "boring" car like a Golf. No huge center-mounted display, no app store, no forced remote updates, no DRM locking me out of reparing my own car. If they keep the sensors for partially automated driving as a better cruise control, I'm fine with that.
Unfortunately, the current e-Golf is just a regular Golf poorly converted to electric, way too expensive and with not enough range.
That's going to be nearly impossible to avoid in the future. I do some software work for one automaker and every 2019+ model has a firewall on the data bus. It's not because they want to lock you out of repairing your car, it's because the pen testing and Defcon hacking has been accelerating over the past few years and they don't want headlines that say their cars can be hacked. That's bad for sales. They'll lose sales from guys like you too of course -- your concern is certainly valid, but more people are concerned about the security of their car than being able to repair it themselves.
Which model? A couple of years ago I got an e-Golf and it's been pretty amazing. I say that as someone who owned 2 (petrol) Golfs prior. I got it cheaper than any previous Golf and it had more features too. I understand range anxiety, but the same holds (at the same price) with other marks (I've also owned a Leaf). What makes the e-Golf poorly converted and too expensive?
That is the one thing I give to VW: their first new electric car is going to be the NEO, which is basically a Golf done from scratch as an electric car. If they can get it into production numbers high enough for the promised prices, it could be the electric car for the masses.
Try the uMatrix browser plugin. No cross domain javascript is loaded by default, and it's super configurable. I was able to read this page, but the map and some other content was blocked.
Does anyone else think traditional manufacturers will initially sell their EV's at a loss or low profit margin to get a bigger foothold in the market, being propped up by their sales of diesel/petrol cars.
Plot double twist: VW won't actually produce more or cheaper EVs but Tesla goes under and stops making cars so technically this statement is still correct.
I can’t speak for others, but personally I wouldn’t entertain the purchase of a VW or anything from the VW Group after the dieselgate fiasco - regardless of whether it’s electric or not.
[+] [-] askafriend|7 years ago|reply
They'll also have a vastly improved super charger network, a mature software ecosystem, a mature direct sales/servicing model, and whatever else they dream up like Powerwall and other systems that can potentially add value to the whole. VW will just be scratching the surface by 2020 while Tesla will likely continue sprinting ahead.
[+] [-] simion314|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] sigi45|7 years ago|reply
VW hast way more: experience, capacity, people, money.
They can probably do that.
[+] [-] ekianjo|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] AriaMinaei|7 years ago|reply
[0] https://a16z.com/2018/09/17/hallway-conversation-tesla-disru...
[+] [-] _0w8t|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] lazyjones|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] captainmuon|7 years ago|reply
Unfortunately, the current e-Golf is just a regular Golf poorly converted to electric, way too expensive and with not enough range.
[+] [-] bonestamp2|7 years ago|reply
That's going to be nearly impossible to avoid in the future. I do some software work for one automaker and every 2019+ model has a firewall on the data bus. It's not because they want to lock you out of repairing your car, it's because the pen testing and Defcon hacking has been accelerating over the past few years and they don't want headlines that say their cars can be hacked. That's bad for sales. They'll lose sales from guys like you too of course -- your concern is certainly valid, but more people are concerned about the security of their car than being able to repair it themselves.
[+] [-] timcederman|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] _ph_|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] LeoPanthera|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] reacharavindh|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] tga|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] rqs|7 years ago|reply
I don't get it, why everybody start to build car like a smartphone now days?
[+] [-] stephengillie|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] flashgordon|7 years ago|reply
"We will take a currently winning product X and deliver 2X by some future date Y."
Imagine if competitors actually said:
"We will first catch up to X by some date before Y. Then we will hit 2X by Y".
[+] [-] MagnumOpus|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] TekMol|7 years ago|reply
Took me a while to figure out that scrolling on this page is broken unless you enable javascript.
Looks like the reason is that it needs Googles amp code to function.
It's hillarious that Google gets away bloating the web with crap and selling us that as a way to make it more lightweight.
Flagging it for this reason. I think we should not support AMP here on HN.
[+] [-] bonestamp2|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Dennip|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] kumarvvr|7 years ago|reply
Also, what will happen to the price of ICE cars if EV's start catching up?
[+] [-] amenghra|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] majewsky|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] RickJWagner|7 years ago|reply
If VWs electric vehicles really are as good as Tesla's by 2020, it will be more a condemnation of Tesla than praise for VW.
[+] [-] meddlepal|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] marenkay|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] kumarvvr|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] avelis|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] rb666|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] sschueller|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] tebbers|7 years ago|reply