I always found it quite interesting to see the parallels between arguments for God and aliens -- X can't be explained by science so I'm going to jump to the conclusion I want to believe. I thought I was immune to this kind of reasoning but even I fell for it with Oumuamua.
The initial paper and comments by some experts convinced me that there is a strong chance that this is a probe. It seemed plausible based on my limited understanding of Physics. (Moment of Inertia, Stresses etc.)
But then a paper[1] was released claiming this to be a comet. I so wanted my original belief to be true(because it was more exciting!) I considered the possibility that their [2]model wasn't accurate. I was even willing to entertain the idea of cover-up just because it didn't align with what I wanted to be true!
I'm sure "they" have used science to accelerate their ship/engine. I love when things like this happen and show just how much we still don't know, even about things we consider "basic".
When you look at the trajectory that this object took through the solar system, coming within .14 AU of earth, you really have to wonder; what are the chances that it was a random flyby?
You have to consider instead the probability of detecting such objects that don't come very close to Earth. And that probability is actually pretty low (currently), so the proximity tells us very little beyond some general estimate of how common such objects are.
~99.9̅% chance of being random. Absent any sort of evidence, it was a rare, meaningless event. The law of large numbers, however, suggests that rare events occur more frequently than you'd expect. E.g 1 in 1000 year floods could occur 3 times in a decade, since each event is statistically independent from others.
> We discuss the possible origins of such an object including the possibility that it might be a lightsail of artificial origin. Our general results apply to any light probes designed for interstellar travel.
Could someone clarify whether it means what I think it is saying - that an Arxiv paper is trying to prove that this is an object sent by an alien civilization to peek at our solar system?
Anyone can publish to Arxiv; one doesn't need to be credible to publish there. I am not saying these authors are untrustworthy, by the way, or that the object in question is or is not of alien & artificial origin; I am saying that anyone can publish a paper to Arxiv.
Comet Rosetta's perihelion was August 13, 2015 [1] and there was a big outgassing event February 2016 [2]. Takes time for heat to propagate through stuff.
But yeah, I'd rather it was due to radiation pressure on an alien solar sail.
> They should come and just destroy us before we slowly destroy ourselves!
Your misanthropy doesn’t even make sense. We should be destroyed because we are going to destroy ourselves? As in, we’re going to fall off a cliff, so why not just push us off pre-emptively?
[+] [-] okket|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] mindfulplay|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] yantrams|7 years ago|reply
The initial paper and comments by some experts convinced me that there is a strong chance that this is a probe. It seemed plausible based on my limited understanding of Physics. (Moment of Inertia, Stresses etc.)
But then a paper[1] was released claiming this to be a comet. I so wanted my original belief to be true(because it was more exciting!) I considered the possibility that their [2]model wasn't accurate. I was even willing to entertain the idea of cover-up just because it didn't align with what I wanted to be true!
[1] https://www.space.com/41015-interstellar-visitor-oumuamua-co...
[2]A recent study claims that it was indeed the case and the probe is more likely to not be a comet. https://www.quantamagazine.org/interstellar-comet-oumuamua-m...
Edit: Formatting
[+] [-] vertline3|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Keyframe|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] TheOtherHobbes|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] sunstone|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] InclinedPlane|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] vertline3|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] Afforess|7 years ago|reply
~99.9̅% chance of being random. Absent any sort of evidence, it was a rare, meaningless event. The law of large numbers, however, suggests that rare events occur more frequently than you'd expect. E.g 1 in 1000 year floods could occur 3 times in a decade, since each event is statistically independent from others.
[+] [-] unknown|7 years ago|reply
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[+] [-] jwfxpr|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] samspenc|7 years ago|reply
Could someone clarify whether it means what I think it is saying - that an Arxiv paper is trying to prove that this is an object sent by an alien civilization to peek at our solar system?
[+] [-] grondilu|7 years ago|reply
Weirder Arxiv papers exist, it's not that odd.
[+] [-] tree_of_item|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] naikrovek|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] selimthegrim|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] ridgeguy|7 years ago|reply
Comet Rosetta's perihelion was August 13, 2015 [1] and there was a big outgassing event February 2016 [2]. Takes time for heat to propagate through stuff.
But yeah, I'd rather it was due to radiation pressure on an alien solar sail.
[1] https://www.space.com/30237-rosetta-spacecraft-comet-closest...
[2] http://blogs.esa.int/rosetta/2016/08/25/rosetta-captures-com...
[+] [-] unknown|7 years ago|reply
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[+] [-] vijaybritto|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] dgzl|7 years ago|reply
[+] [-] toasterlovin|7 years ago|reply
Your misanthropy doesn’t even make sense. We should be destroyed because we are going to destroy ourselves? As in, we’re going to fall off a cliff, so why not just push us off pre-emptively?