[Chris_Jay]

I'm not an expert either, but you might be interested in the book 'Superforecasting' by Tetlock and Gardner - they have done some (IMHO) very interesting research on predictions markets. It might be the kind of thing you're looking to research more of!

[sixdimensional]

Thanks for the recommendation - that does look very interesting indeed! I will find myself a copy and have a read. Hacker News book club comes through again!! :)